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Pisagor Bulanık AHP ve Pisagor Bulanık TOPSIS Kullanılarak Balıkesir’de Orman Yangını Risk Değerlendirmesi

Year 2025, EARLY VIEW, 1 - 1

Burcu Tezcan , Tamer Eren

https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1648306

Abstract

Orman yangınları çeşitli nedenlerle ortaya çıkabilir ve hızla yayılabilir. Dolayısıyla büyük bir çevre sorunudur. Türkiye'de özellikle Ege ve Akdeniz bölgelerinde 12 milyon hektar alan orman yangını riski taşımaktadır. Orman yangınlarında riskli alanlar, yangının kolaylıkla başlayıp hızla diğer alanlara yayılabileceği yerlerdir. Doğayı kontrol etmek zordur. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada Türkiye'de yangın ihtimali yüksek olan yerlerin tespit edilmesi problemi ele alınmaktadır. Özellikle Balıkesir ili turistik bir yer olup, ormanlık alanı fazla, bitki çeşitliliği fazla ve tarım bölgesidir. Bu nedenle Balıkesir’in 20 ilçesi alternatif olarak belirlenmiştir. Bunlar Bandirma, Edremit, Dursunbey, Susurluk, Manyas, Burhaniye, Ayvalik, Havran, Gönen, Kepsut, Erdek, Marmara adasi, Altieylül, Karesi, İvrindi, Savastepe, Bigadic, Sindirgi, Gömec, Balya’dır. Bu ilçelerde yangın olasılığının yüksek olması nedeniyle çok kriterli karar verme (ÇKKV) modelinin önerilmesi ikna edici sonuçlar elde etmek açısından çok değerlidir. Bu nedenle literatürde birçok uygulamada karar vericiye geniş bir değerlendirme ölçeği sunan Pisagor Bulanık Kümeleri (PFS) kullanılmış ve AHP-TOPSIS kombinasyonu uygulanmıştır. Ayrıca PFS, orman yangınlarının risk değerlendirmesi ve yönetiminde belirsizliklerin daha etkin bir şekilde modellenebilmesi amacıyla ilk kez kullanılmıştır. Orman yangınlarına neden olan kriterlerin ağırlıkları Pisagor Bulanık AHP yöntemiyle hesaplanmıştır. Bu yöntemden 0.153 oranla hava sıcaklığı ilk sıradır. İkinci sırada nem yer almaktadır. Bu nedenle düşük nem ve hava sıcaklığı, bitki örtüsünün su içeriğini azaltarak tutuşma potansiyelini artırır ve yangınların yayılma hızını destekleyerek orman yangınlarının sıklığını ve şiddetini önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Bu ağırlıklar kullanılarak Pisagor Bulanık TOPSIS yöntemi ile orman yangını açısından risk altındaki ilçelerin sıralaması bulunmuştur. İlk sırada Edremit yer almaktadır. Sonucun ne kadar önemini test etmek için duyarlılık analizi uygulanmıştır.

Keywords

Forest Fires Balikesir PFAHP PFTOPSIS Sensitivity Analysis

References

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Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS

Year 2025, EARLY VIEW, 1 - 1

Burcu Tezcan , Tamer Eren

https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1648306

Abstract

Forest fires can occur for a variety of reasons and spread rapidly. Therefore, this is a major environmental problem. In Turkey, especially in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions, 12 million hectares are at risk of forest fires. Risk areas in forest fires are places where fires can easily start and spread rapidly to other areas. Nature is difficult to control. In this context, this study addresses the problem of identifying areas with high fire risk in Turkey. Especially Balıkesir province is a touristic place, has a large forest area, high plant diversity and is an agricultural region. For this reason, 20 districts of Balıkesir were identified as alternatives. These are Bandirma, Edremit, Dursunbey, Susurluk, Manyas, Burhaniye, Ayvalik, Havran, Gönen, Kepsut, Erdek, Marmara Island, Altieylül, Karesi, İvrindi, Savastepe, Bigadic, Sindirgi, Gömec, Balya. Due to the high probability of fire in these districts, proposing a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model is very valuable to obtain convincing results. For this reason, Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets (PFS) have been used in many applications in the literature, which offer a broad evaluation scale to the decision maker, and the combination of AHP-TOPSIS has been applied. In addition, PFS has been used for the first time in order to model uncertainties more effectively in risk assessment and management of forest fires. The weights of the criteria causing forest fires were calculated by Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP method. From this method, air temperature ranks first with a ratio of 0.153. The second rank is humidity. Therefore, low humidity and air temperature significantly affect the frequency and severity of forest fires by reducing the water content of vegetation, increasing the ignition potential and favoring the rate of fire spread. Using these weights, the Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS method was used to rank the districts at risk of forest fires. Edremit is ranked first. The Edremit district is the most sensitive region due to high temperatures and low humidity in summer. In addition, 32 different endemic plant species in the Kaz Mountains increase the area's ecological importance. Therefore, it is of great importance to develop effective strategies to prevent forest fires in the Edremit district. Sensitivity analysis was applied to test the significance of the result.

Keywords

Forest Fires PFAHP PFTOPSIS Sensitivity Analysis Balikesir

References

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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Fuzzy Computation
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Burcu Tezcan 0000-0002-0997-7761

Tamer Eren 0000-0001-5282-3138

Early Pub Date April 27, 2025
Publication Date
Submission Date February 27, 2025
Acceptance Date April 12, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 EARLY VIEW

Cite

APA Tezcan, B., & Eren, T. (2025). Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS. Politeknik Dergisi1-1. https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1648306
AMA Tezcan B, Eren T. Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS. Politeknik Dergisi. Published online April 1, 2025:1-1. doi:10.2339/politeknik.1648306
Chicago Tezcan, Burcu, and Tamer Eren. “Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir Using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS”. Politeknik Dergisi, April (April 2025), 1-1. https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1648306.
EndNote Tezcan B, Eren T (April 1, 2025) Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS. Politeknik Dergisi 1–1.
IEEE B. Tezcan and T. Eren, “Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS”, Politeknik Dergisi, pp. 1–1, April 2025, doi: 10.2339/politeknik.1648306.
ISNAD Tezcan, Burcu - Eren, Tamer. “Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir Using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS”. Politeknik Dergisi. April 2025. 1-1. https://doi.org/10.2339/politeknik.1648306.
JAMA Tezcan B, Eren T. Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS. Politeknik Dergisi. 2025;:1–1.
MLA Tezcan, Burcu and Tamer Eren. “Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir Using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS”. Politeknik Dergisi, 2025, pp. 1-1, doi:10.2339/politeknik.1648306.
Vancouver Tezcan B, Eren T. Forest Fire Risk Assessment in Balikesir using Pythagorean Fuzzy AHP and Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS. Politeknik Dergisi. 2025:1-.

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