Research Article
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An Application on the J-Curve Hypothesis

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 103 - 122, 18.04.2025

Osman Cenk Kanca

https://doi.org/10.26745/ahbvuibfd.1566263

Abstract

In the process of forming economic policies, the relationship(s) between the exchange rate and the foreign trade balance can be considered as valuable macroeconomic indicators for policy makers. Policy makers can target the optimal foreign trade balance over time by using information on how exchange rate changes affect the foreign trade balance in the short and long run. In this case, the response of the export and import quantities of the goods subject to foreign trade and the export and import prices to the exchange rate can be decisive. Almost all countries face foreign trade balance problems, but it can be stated that these problems are more common in developing countries. In this context, the macroeconomic relationship between the exchange rate and the foreign trade balance is a fundamental issue, especially for policy makers in developing countries. In economic theory, the response of the value of the foreign trade balance to real exchange rate movements is defined by the J-curve, and it is known that a real depreciation initially worsens the foreign trade balance deficit but improves it over time. The aim of this study is to investigate the J-curve effect in the period 1980-2023, in Turkey. In this study, in which some time series techniques were used, a long-run relationship was found between the variables used and as a result of the impulse-response analysis, empirical results were reached that the J-curve effect was valid at a relatively weak level.

Keywords

Exchange Rate Foreign Trade Balance J-curve Long Run Effect Impulse-Response Functions Causality

References

  • Akbostancı, E., (2002). Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve, ERC Working Papers in Economics, 1(5), 1-19.
  • Arı, A. vd., (2019). J-Curve in Turkish Bilateral Trade: A Nonlinear Approach, The International Trade Journal, 33 (1), 31-53.
  • Arora, S., Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Goswami, G. (2003). Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners. Applied Economics, 35 (9), 1037-1041.
  • Aziz, N. (2012). Does a Real Devaluation Improve the Balance of Trade? Empirics from Bangladesh Economy, The Journal of Developing Areas, 46 (2), 19-41.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67 (3), 500-504.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Kantipong, T. (2001). Bilateral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partners, Journal of Economic Development, 26 (2), 107-117.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Goswami, G. G. (2003). A Disaggregated Approach to Test the J-Curve Phenomenon: Japan Versus her Major Trading Partners, Journal of Economics and Finance, 27 (1), 102-113.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Ratha, A. (2004). The J-Curve: A Literature Review, Applied Economics, 36 (13), 1377- 1398. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nouira, R. (2021). U.S.-Italy Commodity Trade and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Asymmetry Analysis, International Economics and Economic Policy, 18, 73-103.
  • Ceyhan T. ve Gürsoy S. (2021). The J-Curve Hypothesis: An Analysis for Turkey, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12 (3), 1169-1181.
  • Dickey, D, A ve Fuller, W, A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
  • Dongfack, L. P. S. ve Ouyang, H. (2019), The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation on Cameroon’s Trade Balance, Journal of Economic Integration, 34 (1), 189-213.
  • Durusoy, Ö. T., ve Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (1997). Devalüasyon ve J-Eğrisi, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8 (24-25), 65-79.
  • Engel, R. F., ve C. W. J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and Error Correction Representation Estimation and Testing, Econometrics, 55, 251-276.
  • Erdem, H. F. ve Yamak, N. (2016). Döviz Kurunun Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi Üzerindeki Geçişkenlik Etkisi: Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Yaklaşım, KAÜİİBFD, 7(13), 303-322.
  • Felmingham, B. S. (1988). Where is the Australian J‐Curve?, Bulletin of Economic Research, 40 (1), 43-56.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
  • Gözen, M. Ç., ve Bostancı, F. C., (2021). Türkiye ve Ana Ticaret Partnerleri için J-Eğrisinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı Uygulaması, Sosyoekonomi, 29 (50), 149-168.
  • Gupta-Kapoor, A., ve Ramakrishnan, U. (1999). Is there a J-Curve? A new estimation for Japan, International Economic Journal, 13 (4), 71-79.
  • Hacker, R. S. ve Hatemi-J, A., (2003). Is the J-Curve Effect Observable for Small North European Economies?, Open Economies Review, 14, 119-134.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkish Bilateral Trade: A Cointegration Approach, Journal of Economic Studies, 34 (2), 103-119.
  • Harberger, A. C. (1950). Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade, Journal of Political Economy, 58 (1), 47-60.
  • Harvey A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Hussain, M. E., ve Haque, M. (2014). Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1 (2), 231-240.
  • Hsing, H., ve Savvides, A., (1996). Does a J-Curve Exist for Korea and Taiwan?, Open Economies Review, 7, 126- 145.
  • International Monetary Fund (2024). Direction of Trade Statistics, Washington D. C. IMF.
  • Ivanovski, K., Churchill, S. A. ve Nuhu, A. S., (2020). Modelling the Australian J-Curve: An ARDL Cointegration Approach, Economic Papers, 39 (2), 167–184.
  • Jamilov, R. (2011). J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan, MPRA, 1-17.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kapoor, G., ve Uma, R. (1999). Is There a J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan, International Economic Journal, 13 (4), 71–79.
  • Kennedy, O., (2013). Kenya’s Foreign Trade Balance: An Empirical Investigation, European Scientific Journal, 9 (19), 176-189.
  • Kılıç, R., Özbek, R. ve Çifçi, İ. (2018). Validity of the J-Curve Hypothesis for Turkey: ARDL Bound Test Approach, International Journal of Disciplines in Economics and Administrative Sciences Studies, 4 (7), 112-128.
  • Kurtović, S. (2017). Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania. Review of Economic Perspectives, 17 (2), 141–158.
  • Kyophilavong, P., Shahbaz, M., ve Uddin, G. S. (2013). Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-26.
  • Lal, A. K. ve Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia, Journal of Economic Integration, 17 (2), 397-415.
  • Lee, J. ve Chinn, M., (2006). Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G7 Countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, 25 (2), 257-274.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 303-325.
  • Marwah, K., ve Klein, L. R. (1996). Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics, 29 (3), 523-539.
  • Mike, F., Özaytürk, G., ve Kızılkaya, O., (2022). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi: Fourier Eşbütünleşme Testinden Yeni Bulgular, Sosyoekonomi, 30 (52), 313-331.
  • Mwito, M. M., Mkenda, B. L., ve Luvanda, E. (2021). The Asymmetric J-Curve Phenomenon: Kenya Versus her Trading Partners, Central Bank Review, 21 (1), 25-34.
  • Miles, M. A. (1979). The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (3), 600-620.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004). New Zealand's Trade Balance: Evidence of the J-Curve and Granger Causality, Applied Economics Letters, 11 (6), 351-354. Noland, M. (1989). Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71 (1), 175-179.
  • Nusair, S.A. (2017). The J-curve Phenomenon in European Transition Economies: a Nonlinear ARDL Approach, International Review of Applied Economics, 31 (1), 1-27.
  • Okay, E., Baytar, R. A., ve Saridogan, E. (2012). The Effects of the Exchange Rate Changes on the Current Account Balance in the Turkish Economy, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 27,310, 79-101.
  • Özdemir, S., Topcu, M., ve Emirmahmutoğlu, F., (2022). Bilateral J-Curve Between Turkey and the Eurozone Türkiye ve Avro Bölgesi Arasındaki İkili Ticarette J-Eğrisi, Mehmet Akif Ersoy İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (2), 1420-1432.
  • Peker, O., (2008). Reel Döviz Kurunun Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22 (2), 33-43.
  • Pertiwi, R., (2024). Is There J-Curve Phenomenon and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in East Java?, East Java Economic Journal, 8 (1), 99-114.
  • Petroviç, P., ve Gligoriç, M., (2010). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-Curve Effect, Panoeconomicus, 1, 23- 41.
  • Pirimbaev, J. ve Oskonbaeva, Z. (2015). Kırgızistan Dış Ticaret Dengesinin Belirleyicileri, Sosyoekonomi, 23 (25), 79-92.
  • Reinhart, C. (1995). Devaluation, Relative Prices and International Trade, Imf Staff Papers, 42, 290-309.
  • Rose, A. K., ve Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is There a J-Curve?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 (1), 53-68.
  • Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries, Economic Letters, 271-275.
  • Salvatore, D. (2013). International Economics (11th ed.), John Wiley&Sons, Inc.
  • Sevüktekin, M. ve Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi (5. Baskı), Bursa: Dora Yayınevi.
  • Sivrikaya, A., ve Ongan, S., (2019). BREXIT ve İngiltere için J-Eğrisi Hipotezi: NARDL Yaklaşımı, Sosyoekonomi, 27 (40), 229-239.
  • Stučka, T. (2004). The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia, IMF Working Paper, 04/65.
  • Uslu, H. (2018). Validity of Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Hypothesis: A Comparative Analysis for Countries in Different Income Groups, International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 4 (20), 550- 561.
  • Yavuz, N. Ç., Güriş, B., ve Kıran, B. (2010). Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye için Marshall- Lerner Koşulunun Testi, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 25 (287), 69-90.
  • Yamak, R. ve A. Korkmaz (2005). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 2(1), 11-29.
  • Yamak, R. ve Köseoğlu, M. (2006). Uygulamalı İstatistik ve Ekonometri (3. Baskı), Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık.
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J-Eğrisi Hipotezi Üzerine Bir Uygulama

Year 2025, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 103 - 122, 18.04.2025

Osman Cenk Kanca

https://doi.org/10.26745/ahbvuibfd.1566263

Abstract

İktisat politikalarının oluşum sürecinde döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki ilişki(ler), politika yapıcılar için değerli makroekonomik göstergeler olarak düşünülebilir. Politika yapıcılar, döviz kuru değişikliklerinin kısa ve uzun dönemde dış ticaret dengesini nasıl etkilediğine dair bilgileri kullanarak zaman içerisinde optimal dış ticaret dengesini hedefleyebilirler. Burada dış ticarete konu malların ihracat ve ithalat miktarlarının ve ihracat ve ithalat fiyatlarının döviz kuruna tepkisi belirleyici olabilmektedir. Neredeyse tüm ülkeler dış ticaret dengesi sorunlarıyla karşılaşmaktadırlar, ancak bu sorunların daha çok gelişmekte olan ülkelerde görüldüğü belirtilebilir. Bu bağlamda döviz kuru ile dış ticaret dengesi arasındaki makroekonomik ilişki özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki politika yapıcılar açısından temel öneme sahip bir konudur. İktisat kuramında dış ticaret dengesinin değerinin reel döviz kuru hareketlerine tepkisi J-eğrisi ile tanımlanmakta ve reel bir değer kaybının başlangıçta dış ticaret dengesi açığını kötüleştirdiği ancak zamanla onu iyileştirdiği bilinmektedir. Bu çalışmada amaç, Türkiye’de 1980-2023 döneminde J-eğrisi etkisini araştırmaktır. Bazı zaman serisi tekniklerinin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada, kullanılan değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkiye rastlanmış ve etki-tepki analizi sonucunda görece zayıf düzeyde J-eğrisi etkisinin geçerli olduğuna dair ampirik sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır.

Keywords

döviz kuru dış ticaret dengesi J-eğrisi Uzun Dönem Etki Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları Nedensellik

References

  • Akbostancı, E., (2002). Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve, ERC Working Papers in Economics, 1(5), 1-19.
  • Arı, A. vd., (2019). J-Curve in Turkish Bilateral Trade: A Nonlinear Approach, The International Trade Journal, 33 (1), 31-53.
  • Arora, S., Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Goswami, G. (2003). Bilateral J-Curve between India and Her Trading Partners. Applied Economics, 35 (9), 1037-1041.
  • Aziz, N. (2012). Does a Real Devaluation Improve the Balance of Trade? Empirics from Bangladesh Economy, The Journal of Developing Areas, 46 (2), 19-41.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67 (3), 500-504.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Kantipong, T. (2001). Bilateral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partners, Journal of Economic Development, 26 (2), 107-117.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Goswami, G. G. (2003). A Disaggregated Approach to Test the J-Curve Phenomenon: Japan Versus her Major Trading Partners, Journal of Economics and Finance, 27 (1), 102-113.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Ratha, A. (2004). The J-Curve: A Literature Review, Applied Economics, 36 (13), 1377- 1398. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Nouira, R. (2021). U.S.-Italy Commodity Trade and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Asymmetry Analysis, International Economics and Economic Policy, 18, 73-103.
  • Ceyhan T. ve Gürsoy S. (2021). The J-Curve Hypothesis: An Analysis for Turkey, Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12 (3), 1169-1181.
  • Dickey, D, A ve Fuller, W, A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
  • Dongfack, L. P. S. ve Ouyang, H. (2019), The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation on Cameroon’s Trade Balance, Journal of Economic Integration, 34 (1), 189-213.
  • Durusoy, Ö. T., ve Tokatlıoğlu, İ. (1997). Devalüasyon ve J-Eğrisi, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 8 (24-25), 65-79.
  • Engel, R. F., ve C. W. J. Granger (1987), Cointegration and Error Correction Representation Estimation and Testing, Econometrics, 55, 251-276.
  • Erdem, H. F. ve Yamak, N. (2016). Döviz Kurunun Fiyatlar Genel Düzeyi Üzerindeki Geçişkenlik Etkisi: Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Yaklaşım, KAÜİİBFD, 7(13), 303-322.
  • Felmingham, B. S. (1988). Where is the Australian J‐Curve?, Bulletin of Economic Research, 40 (1), 43-56.
  • Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37, 424-438.
  • Gözen, M. Ç., ve Bostancı, F. C., (2021). Türkiye ve Ana Ticaret Partnerleri için J-Eğrisinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı Uygulaması, Sosyoekonomi, 29 (50), 149-168.
  • Gupta-Kapoor, A., ve Ramakrishnan, U. (1999). Is there a J-Curve? A new estimation for Japan, International Economic Journal, 13 (4), 71-79.
  • Hacker, R. S. ve Hatemi-J, A., (2003). Is the J-Curve Effect Observable for Small North European Economies?, Open Economies Review, 14, 119-134.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). The J-Curve Dynamics of Turkish Bilateral Trade: A Cointegration Approach, Journal of Economic Studies, 34 (2), 103-119.
  • Harberger, A. C. (1950). Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade, Journal of Political Economy, 58 (1), 47-60.
  • Harvey A. C. (1989). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Hussain, M. E., ve Haque, M. (2014). Is the J-Curve a Reality in Developing Countries?, Journal of Economics and Political Economy, 1 (2), 231-240.
  • Hsing, H., ve Savvides, A., (1996). Does a J-Curve Exist for Korea and Taiwan?, Open Economies Review, 7, 126- 145.
  • International Monetary Fund (2024). Direction of Trade Statistics, Washington D. C. IMF.
  • Ivanovski, K., Churchill, S. A. ve Nuhu, A. S., (2020). Modelling the Australian J-Curve: An ARDL Cointegration Approach, Economic Papers, 39 (2), 167–184.
  • Jamilov, R. (2011). J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall-Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan, MPRA, 1-17.
  • Johansen, S. ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
  • Kapoor, G., ve Uma, R. (1999). Is There a J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan, International Economic Journal, 13 (4), 71–79.
  • Kennedy, O., (2013). Kenya’s Foreign Trade Balance: An Empirical Investigation, European Scientific Journal, 9 (19), 176-189.
  • Kılıç, R., Özbek, R. ve Çifçi, İ. (2018). Validity of the J-Curve Hypothesis for Turkey: ARDL Bound Test Approach, International Journal of Disciplines in Economics and Administrative Sciences Studies, 4 (7), 112-128.
  • Kurtović, S. (2017). Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania. Review of Economic Perspectives, 17 (2), 141–158.
  • Kyophilavong, P., Shahbaz, M., ve Uddin, G. S. (2013). Does J-Curve Phenomenon Exist in Case of Laos? An ARDL Approach, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 1-26.
  • Lal, A. K. ve Lowinger, T. C. (2002). The J-Curve: Evidence from East Asia, Journal of Economic Integration, 17 (2), 397-415.
  • Lee, J. ve Chinn, M., (2006). Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G7 Countries, Journal of International Money and Finance, 25 (2), 257-274.
  • Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 303-325.
  • Marwah, K., ve Klein, L. R. (1996). Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada, Canadian Journal of Economics, 29 (3), 523-539.
  • Mike, F., Özaytürk, G., ve Kızılkaya, O., (2022). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi: Fourier Eşbütünleşme Testinden Yeni Bulgular, Sosyoekonomi, 30 (52), 313-331.
  • Mwito, M. M., Mkenda, B. L., ve Luvanda, E. (2021). The Asymmetric J-Curve Phenomenon: Kenya Versus her Trading Partners, Central Bank Review, 21 (1), 25-34.
  • Miles, M. A. (1979). The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results, Journal of Political Economy, 87 (3), 600-620.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2004). New Zealand's Trade Balance: Evidence of the J-Curve and Granger Causality, Applied Economics Letters, 11 (6), 351-354. Noland, M. (1989). Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71 (1), 175-179.
  • Nusair, S.A. (2017). The J-curve Phenomenon in European Transition Economies: a Nonlinear ARDL Approach, International Review of Applied Economics, 31 (1), 1-27.
  • Okay, E., Baytar, R. A., ve Saridogan, E. (2012). The Effects of the Exchange Rate Changes on the Current Account Balance in the Turkish Economy, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 27,310, 79-101.
  • Özdemir, S., Topcu, M., ve Emirmahmutoğlu, F., (2022). Bilateral J-Curve Between Turkey and the Eurozone Türkiye ve Avro Bölgesi Arasındaki İkili Ticarette J-Eğrisi, Mehmet Akif Ersoy İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (2), 1420-1432.
  • Peker, O., (2008). Reel Döviz Kurunun Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22 (2), 33-43.
  • Pertiwi, R., (2024). Is There J-Curve Phenomenon and Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in East Java?, East Java Economic Journal, 8 (1), 99-114.
  • Petroviç, P., ve Gligoriç, M., (2010). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance: J-Curve Effect, Panoeconomicus, 1, 23- 41.
  • Pirimbaev, J. ve Oskonbaeva, Z. (2015). Kırgızistan Dış Ticaret Dengesinin Belirleyicileri, Sosyoekonomi, 23 (25), 79-92.
  • Reinhart, C. (1995). Devaluation, Relative Prices and International Trade, Imf Staff Papers, 42, 290-309.
  • Rose, A. K., ve Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is There a J-Curve?, Journal of Monetary Economics, 24 (1), 53-68.
  • Rose, A. K. (1990). Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: Some Evidence from Developing Countries, Economic Letters, 271-275.
  • Salvatore, D. (2013). International Economics (11th ed.), John Wiley&Sons, Inc.
  • Sevüktekin, M. ve Çınar, M. (2017). Ekonometrik Zaman Serileri Analizi (5. Baskı), Bursa: Dora Yayınevi.
  • Sivrikaya, A., ve Ongan, S., (2019). BREXIT ve İngiltere için J-Eğrisi Hipotezi: NARDL Yaklaşımı, Sosyoekonomi, 27 (40), 229-239.
  • Stučka, T. (2004). The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia, IMF Working Paper, 04/65.
  • Uslu, H. (2018). Validity of Marshall-Lerner Condition and J-Curve Hypothesis: A Comparative Analysis for Countries in Different Income Groups, International Journal of Academic Value Studies, 4 (20), 550- 561.
  • Yavuz, N. Ç., Güriş, B., ve Kıran, B. (2010). Reel Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye için Marshall- Lerner Koşulunun Testi, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, 25 (287), 69-90.
  • Yamak, R. ve A. Korkmaz (2005). Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi, İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 2(1), 11-29.
  • Yamak, R. ve Köseoğlu, M. (2006). Uygulamalı İstatistik ve Ekonometri (3. Baskı), Trabzon: Celepler Matbaacılık.
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There are 67 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section Main Section
Authors

Osman Cenk Kanca 0000-0003-3381-381X

Early Pub Date April 6, 2025
Publication Date April 18, 2025
Submission Date October 13, 2024
Acceptance Date January 14, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 27 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Kanca, O. C. (2025). J-Eğrisi Hipotezi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(1), 103-122. https://doi.org/10.26745/ahbvuibfd.1566263
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