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TESTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS FOR TÜRKİYE BY AGE, GENDER AND FREQUENCY DIFFERENCES: EVIDENCE FROM WAVELET-BASED UNIT ROOT TESTS

Year 2024, Volume: 15 Issue: 3, 1599 - 1623, 31.12.2024

Tuba Çat , Mustafa Kırca

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1526649

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to test the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis by age, gender and frequency differences (period) for Türkiye. For this purpose, monthly data cover a long period between 2005 and 2023.Wavelet transforms of unemployment rates, along with their original values, are used to investigate the hysteresis effect for short, medium, and long-run components. First, the linearity of the series and the significance of structural breaks are tested. The Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (FADF) test is used for linear series with significant structural breaks. The Fourier Kapetanios-Shin-Snell (FKSS) test is used to test the hysteresis hypothesis for non-linear series with significant structural breaks. For series without significant structural breaks, ADF and KSS tests are used. The findings reveal that the hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis in Türkiye differs by age, gender, and frequency differences.

Keywords

Unemployment Hysteresis Hypothesis Wavelet Transform Unit Root Test

References

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TÜRKİYE İÇİN İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ HİPOTEZİNİN YAŞ, CİNSİYET VE FREKANS FARKLILIKLARINA GÖRE SINANMASI: DALGACIK TABANLI BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİNDEN KANITLAR

Year 2024, Volume: 15 Issue: 3, 1599 - 1623, 31.12.2024

Tuba Çat , Mustafa Kırca

https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1526649

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de işsizlik histerisi hipotezininin yaş, cinsiyet ve frekans (dönem) farklılıklarına göre test edilmesidir. Bu amaçla, 2005-2023 yılları arasındaki uzun bir dönemi kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılmıştır. İşsizlik oranlarının dalgacık dönüşümlerinden elde edilen kısa, orta ve uzun dönem bileşenleri, orjinal değrleriyle birlikte histeri etkisinin araştırılmasında kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, serilerin doğrusallığı ve yapısal kırılmaların anlamlılığı test edilmiştir. Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (FADF) testi, anlamlı yapısal kırılmalara sahip doğrusal seriler için kullanılmaktadır. Fourier Kapetanios-Shin-Snell (FKSS) testi, anlamlı yapısal kırılmalara sahip doğrusal olmayan seriler için histeresi hipotezini test etmek için kullanılmaktadır. Anlamlı yapısal kırılmaların olmadığı seriler için ADF ve KSS testleri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, Türkiye'de işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin yaş, cinsiyet ve frekans farklılıklarına göre farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

İşsizlik Histerezis Hipotezi Dalgacık Dönüşümü Birim Kök Testi

Ethical Statement

Etik kurul kararına gerek olmayan bir çalışmadır.

References

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  • Arı, A., Zeren, F., & Özcan, B. (2013). Unemployment hysteresis in East Asian and Pacific Countries: A panel data approach. Marmara University Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 35(2), 105-122, https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/muiibd/issue/494/4368
  • Atabey, A. Ö., & Karakuş, M. (2023). Hysteria effect in labor markets for BRICS-T countries: Time Series and panel data analyses with current approaches. JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 8(2), 67-82.
  • Atamer, M. A., Uçar, M., & Ülger, M. (2023). The analysis of the validity of the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis in Türkiye economy: The period of 1988-2020. Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, 8(2), 283-304. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1231956
  • Aydin, M. (2020). Testing the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis with wavelet-based unit root tests for Turkey. Journal of Academic Inquiries (AID), 15(1), 171-186. https://doi.org/10.17550/akademikincelemeler.695500
  • Aydin, M., & Pata, U. K. (2020). Are shocks to disaggregated renewable energy consumption permanent or temporary for the USA? Wavelet based unit root test with smooth structural shifts. Energy, 207, 118245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118245
  • Ayta, F., & Şen, M. (2023). General outlook of women's employment in Türkiye: examples of selected countries within the scope of increasing employment. International Journal of Economics and Innovation, 9(2), 421-454. https://doi.org/10.20979/ueyd.1327737
  • Azazi̇, H., & Ateş, S. (2022). A comparative analysis of unemployment hysteria for Türkiye. Journal of Entrepreneourship and Development, 17(1), 27-36.
  • Bayat, T., Temiz, M., & Konat, G. (2020). An empirical study on validity of unemployment hysteria hypothesis in Turkey (1923-2019). Pearson Journal Of Social Sciences & Humanities, 5(7), 1-8.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
  • Belke, M. (2020). Testing the hypotheses of hysteresis and naturel rate of unemployment for youth and female unemployment: Evidence from fourier panel unit root tests for European Union Countries. Gümüşhane University Journal of Social Sciences (GUSBID), 11(Ek), 56-73. https://doi.org/10.36362/gumus.820092
  • Ben-Salha, O., & Mrabet, Z. (2019). Is economic growth really jobless? Empirical evidence from North Africa. Comparative Economic Studies, 61(4), 598-624. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41294-018-00082-9
  • Blanchard, O., Cerutti, E., & Summers, L. (2015). Inflation and Activity–Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy İmplications. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w21726
  • Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the european unemployment problem. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1, 15-78. https://doi.org/10.1086/654013
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  • Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Trejo, P. V. (2022). Unemployment persistence in europe: Evidence from the 27 EU Countries. Heliyon, 8(2), e08898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08898
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  • Çavuşoğlu, O. (2021). Youth Unemployment: A review of graduate thesis and an evaluation in the context of social policy. Journal of Social Health, 1(1), 81-115.
  • Christopoulos, D. K., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1076-1093. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.003
  • Coşkun, N. (2021). Test ing the hysteresis in youth unemployment: The case of Turkey. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 6(1), 97-112. https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.892482
  • Çemrek, F., & Şeker, T. (2020). Investigation of women unemployment ratios in Turkey with structural breaks unit root tests. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University, Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 20th International Symposium on Econometrics, Operations Research and Statistics EYI 2020 Special Issue, 117-132.
  • Çi̇çen, Y. B. (2020). Lasting impact of the crisis on unemployment in Turkey: The global crisis period. Journal of the Human and Social Science Researches [itobiad], 9(2) ,1936-1956. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.678064
  • Dedeoğlu, M. (2021). Examination of unemployment in the framework of hysteresis and natural rate in OECD countries: Evidence from alternative panel unit root tests. EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, 35, 129-145. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.0000
  • Erdogan, S., & Solarin, S. A. (2021). Stochastic convergence in carbon emissions based on a new Fourier-based wavelet unit root test. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(17), 21887-21899. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12033-y
  • Fan, Y., & Gençay, R. (2010). Unit Root tests with wavelets. Econometric Theory, 26(5), 1305-1331.
  • Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019
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There are 73 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Econometrics (Other)
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Tuba Çat 0009-0008-5418-661X

Mustafa Kırca 0000-0002-5630-7525

Publication Date December 31, 2024
Submission Date August 1, 2024
Acceptance Date November 27, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 15 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Çat, T., & Kırca, M. (2024). TESTING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS HYPOTHESIS FOR TÜRKİYE BY AGE, GENDER AND FREQUENCY DIFFERENCES: EVIDENCE FROM WAVELET-BASED UNIT ROOT TESTS. Akademik Yaklaşımlar Dergisi, 15(3), 1599-1623. https://doi.org/10.54688/ayd.1526649
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