Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi

Okan Mert Katipoğlu; Reşat Acar

doi:10.21324/dacd.853893

Research Article

Determination of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Maps with Various Interpolation Methods in the Euphrates Basin

Year 2021, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 298 - 317, 25.07.2021

Okan Mert Katipoğlu , Reşat Acar

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.853893

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Drought is a natural disaster that adversely affects various sectors such as hydroelectric power generation, health, industry, tourism, economy, agriculture and animal husbandry. For this reason, monitoring, determining the spatio-temporal distribution, and managing drought risks by taking precautions are of great importance. In this study, it is aimed to map the spatio-temporal changes of various meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin according to drought classes with Kriging, Radial Based Function (RBF) and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation methods and to evaluate the drought risk situation in the basin. For this, Standardized Precipitation Index, Statistical Z-Score Index, Precipitation Anomaly Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Reconnaissance Drought Index and Standardized Runoff Index values were used for 16 Meteorology Observation Stations and 18 stream-gauging stations in the Euphrates Basin. As a result of the analyses, it has been determined that the Kriging method is the most effective method in predicting meteorological droughts in the basin, and RBF is the most effective method in predicting hydrological droughts. Since the drought risk level of the basin is determined to be high, it is recommended to make a drought management plan in the study area, to reduce negative drought effects, and to take early warnings and drought precautions.

Keywords

Drought, Drought Index, Interpolation, Drought Map, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Risk Analysis

References

Afzali A., Keshtkar H., Pakzad S., Moazami N., Azizabadi Farahani E., Golpaygani A., Khosrojerdi E., Yousefi Z., TaghiNaghilou M., (2016), Spatio-temporal analysis of drought severity using drought indices and deterministic and geostatistical methods (Case Study: Zayandehroud River Basin), Desert, 21(2), 165-172.
Ali M.G., Younes K., Esmaeil A., Fatemeh T., (2011), Assessment of geostatistical methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI drought indices, World Applied Sciences Journal, 15(4), 474-482.
Amini M.A., Torkan G., Eslamian, S., Zareian, M.J., Adamowski, J.F., (2019), Analysis of deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques for mapping meteorological variables at large watershed scales, Acta Geophysica, 67(1), 191-203.
Anisfeld S.C., (2011), Water resources: Island Press, Washington, DC., USA, 321ss.
Aytemiz L., Kodaman T., (2006), Sınır aşan sular kullanımı ve Türkiye-Suriye ilişkileri, Tmmob Su Politikaları Kongresi, 527-537.
Bajjali W., (2017), ArcGIS for environmental and water issues, Springer International Publishing, 353ss.
Boustani A., Ulke A., (2020), Investigation of Meteorological Drought Indices for Environmental Assessment of Yesilirmak Region, Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques, 8(1), 374-381.
Buttafuoco G., Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., (2015), Analyses of drought events in Calabria (Southern Italy) using standardized precipitation index, Water Resources Management, 29(2), 557-573.
Chenoweth M.E., Sarra S.A., (2009), A numerical study of generalized multiquadric radial basis function interpolation, SIAM Undergraduate Research Online, 2(2), 58-70.
Dirks K.N., Hay J.E., Stow C.D., Harris D., (1998), High-resolution studies of rainfall on Norfolk Island: Part II: Interpolation of rainfall data, Journal of Hydrology, 208(3-4), 187-193.
Goovaerts P., (2000), Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall, Journal of hydrology, 228(1-2), 113-129.
Gümüş V., (2017), Akim kuraklık indeksi ile Asi havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi, Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, 5(1), 65-73.
Gümüş V., Yıldız M.S., Şimşek O., (2018), Hidrolojik Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi: Murat Nehri-Palu Örneği, Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 3(3), 297-301.
IPCC, (2007), Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report on scientific aspects of climate change for researchers, students, and policymarkers, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 987ss.
Isaaks E., Srivastava R., (1989), An introduction to applied geostatistics, Oxford University Press, 561ss.
Johnston K., Ver Hoef J.M., Krivoruchko K., Lucas N., (2001), Using ArcGIS geostatistical analyst (Vol. 380), ESRI Redlands.
Karabulut M. (2020), Standart yağış indeksi kullanılarak Sivas il’inde kuraklık analizi, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(71), 2017-230.
Katipoğlu O.M., Acar R., Şengül S., (2020), Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: A case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29-43.
Katipoğlu, O.M., Acar, R., Şenocak, S., (2021), Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin, Turkey. Water Supply, 21(4), 1657-1673.
Kuzucu A., (2016), Seyhan Havzası’nda Kuraklığın Zamansal ve Alansal Değişiminin İncelenmesi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, İzmir.
Li X., Sha J., Wang Z. L. (2019), Comparison of drought indices in the analysis of spatial and temporal changes of climatic drought events in a basin, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(11), 10695-10707.
Lilly J.O., (2016), A GIS Approach to Modeling Groundwater Levels in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer, Msc thesis. University of Arkansas, Arkansas.
Mahajan D.R., Dodamani, B.M., (2016), Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Krishna river basin of Maharashtra, India, Cogent Engineering, 3(1), 1185926.
Manikandan M., Tamilmani D., (2015), Spatial and Temporal Variation of Meteorological Drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, Tamil Nadu, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 96(3), 177-184.
McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J., (1993), The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, Anaheim, California.
Mishra S.S., Nagarajan R., (2011), Spatio-temporal drought assessment in Tel river basin using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and GIS, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2(1), 79-93.
Morid S., Smakhtin V., Moghaddasi M. (2006), Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 26(7), 971-985.
Nasrollahi M., Khosravi H., Moghaddamnia A., Malekian A., Shahid S., (2018), Assessment of drought risk index using drought hazard and vulnerability indices, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(20), 606, doi: 10.1007/s12517-018-3971-y.
Özcan M., (2020), Dicle Havzasının zamansal ve mekânsal kuraklık analizi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Harran Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Şanlıurfa.
Rahman M.R., Lateh H., (2016), Meteorological drought in Bangladesh: assessing, analysing and hazard mapping using SPI, GIS and monthly rainfall data, Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(12), 1026, doi: 10.1007/s12665-016-5829-5.
Shukla S., Wood A.W., (2008), Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophysical research letters, 35(2), doi: 10.1029/2007GL032487.
Subedi M.R., Xi W., Edgar C.B., Rideout-Hanzak S., Hedquist, B.C., (2019), Assessment of geostatistical methods for spatiotemporal analysis of drought patterns in East Texas, USA. Spatial Information Research, 27(1), 11-21.
Tsakiris G., Vangelis H.J.E.W., (2005), Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European water, 9(10), 3-11.
URL-1 (2020). Geostatical analyst- Evaluating interpolation results- Performing cross-validation and validation. ArcGIS Desktop extensions. https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/extensions/geostatistical-analyst/performing-cross-validation-and-validation.htm, [Erişim 3 Nisan 2021].
Van Rooy M.P., (1965). A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Weather Bureau South Africa Journal, 14(6), 43-48.
Vicente-Serrano S.M. Beguería S. López-Moreno J.I., (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.
Wable P.S., Jha M.K., Shekhar A. (2019), Comparison of drought indices in a semi-arid river basin of India. Water resources management, 33(1), 75-102.
Wilhite D.A., (2005), Drought and water crises: science, technology, and management issues, CRC Press, 432ss.
Yıldırım A., (2006), Karakaya barajı ve doğal çevre etkileri, DÜ Ziya Gökalp Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 32-39.
Yıldız, M.S., (2019), Akım kuraklık indeksi yöntemi ile fırat havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi/Hydrological drought analysis of euphrates basin with streamflow drought index method, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Harran Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Şanlıurfa.
Yuan S., Quiring S.M., Patil S., (2016), Spatial and temporal variations in the accuracy of meteorological drought indices, Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 42(1), 167-183.

Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi

Year 2021, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 298 - 317, 25.07.2021

Okan Mert Katipoğlu , Reşat Acar

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.853893

Cited By: 5

Abstract

Kuraklık hidroelektrik enerji üretimi, sağlık, sanayi, turizm, ekonomi, tarım ve hayvancılık gibi çeşitli sektörleri olumsuz etkileyen bir doğal afettir. Bu nedenle izlenmesi, zamansal ve mekânsal dağılımının belirlenmesi ve önlemler alınarak kuraklık risklerinin yönetilmesi büyük öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, Fırat Havzası’ndaki çeşitli meteorolojik ve hidrolojik kuraklıkların Kriging, Radyal Tabanlı Fonksiyon (RTF) ve Ters Mesafe Ağırlıklandırma (TMA) enterpolasyon yöntemleri ile zamansal ve mekânsal değişimleri kuraklık sınıflarına göre renklendirilerek haritalandırması ve havzadaki kuraklık risk durumunun değerlendirilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bunun için Fırat Havzası ve çevresinde bulunan 16 adet Meteoroloji Gözlem İstasyonu ve 18 adet Akım gözlem istasyonuna ait Standartlaştırılmış Yağış İndeksi, İstatistiksel Z-Skoru İndeksi, Yağış Anomalisi İndeksi, Standardize Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi, Keşif Kuraklık İndeksi ve Standart Akım İndeksi değerleri kullanılmıştır. Analizler sonucunda havzada meteorolojik kuraklıkların tahmininde Kriging metodu, hidrolojik kuraklıkların tahmininde ise RTF en etkili yöntemler olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Havzanın kuraklık risk düzeyi yüksek tespit edildiği için çalışma alanında kuraklık yönetim planının yapılması, olumsuz kuraklık etkilerinin azaltılması, erken uyarı ve kuraklık önlemlerinin alınması önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Kuraklık, Kuraklık İndeksi, Enterpolasyon, Kuraklık Haritası, Zamansal ve Mekânsal Analiz, Risk Analizi

References

Afzali A., Keshtkar H., Pakzad S., Moazami N., Azizabadi Farahani E., Golpaygani A., Khosrojerdi E., Yousefi Z., TaghiNaghilou M., (2016), Spatio-temporal analysis of drought severity using drought indices and deterministic and geostatistical methods (Case Study: Zayandehroud River Basin), Desert, 21(2), 165-172.
Ali M.G., Younes K., Esmaeil A., Fatemeh T., (2011), Assessment of geostatistical methods for spatial analysis of SPI and EDI drought indices, World Applied Sciences Journal, 15(4), 474-482.
Amini M.A., Torkan G., Eslamian, S., Zareian, M.J., Adamowski, J.F., (2019), Analysis of deterministic and geostatistical interpolation techniques for mapping meteorological variables at large watershed scales, Acta Geophysica, 67(1), 191-203.
Anisfeld S.C., (2011), Water resources: Island Press, Washington, DC., USA, 321ss.
Aytemiz L., Kodaman T., (2006), Sınır aşan sular kullanımı ve Türkiye-Suriye ilişkileri, Tmmob Su Politikaları Kongresi, 527-537.
Bajjali W., (2017), ArcGIS for environmental and water issues, Springer International Publishing, 353ss.
Boustani A., Ulke A., (2020), Investigation of Meteorological Drought Indices for Environmental Assessment of Yesilirmak Region, Journal of Environmental Treatment Techniques, 8(1), 374-381.
Buttafuoco G., Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., (2015), Analyses of drought events in Calabria (Southern Italy) using standardized precipitation index, Water Resources Management, 29(2), 557-573.
Chenoweth M.E., Sarra S.A., (2009), A numerical study of generalized multiquadric radial basis function interpolation, SIAM Undergraduate Research Online, 2(2), 58-70.
Dirks K.N., Hay J.E., Stow C.D., Harris D., (1998), High-resolution studies of rainfall on Norfolk Island: Part II: Interpolation of rainfall data, Journal of Hydrology, 208(3-4), 187-193.
Goovaerts P., (2000), Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall, Journal of hydrology, 228(1-2), 113-129.
Gümüş V., (2017), Akim kuraklık indeksi ile Asi havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi, Gazi Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi Part C: Tasarım ve Teknoloji, 5(1), 65-73.
Gümüş V., Yıldız M.S., Şimşek O., (2018), Hidrolojik Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi: Murat Nehri-Palu Örneği, Harran Üniversitesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 3(3), 297-301.
IPCC, (2007), Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report on scientific aspects of climate change for researchers, students, and policymarkers, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA, 987ss.
Isaaks E., Srivastava R., (1989), An introduction to applied geostatistics, Oxford University Press, 561ss.
Johnston K., Ver Hoef J.M., Krivoruchko K., Lucas N., (2001), Using ArcGIS geostatistical analyst (Vol. 380), ESRI Redlands.
Karabulut M. (2020), Standart yağış indeksi kullanılarak Sivas il’inde kuraklık analizi, Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(71), 2017-230.
Katipoğlu O.M., Acar R., Şengül S., (2020), Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: A case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey, Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29-43.
Katipoğlu, O.M., Acar, R., Şenocak, S., (2021), Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Euphrates Basin, Turkey. Water Supply, 21(4), 1657-1673.
Kuzucu A., (2016), Seyhan Havzası’nda Kuraklığın Zamansal ve Alansal Değişiminin İncelenmesi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, İzmir.
Li X., Sha J., Wang Z. L. (2019), Comparison of drought indices in the analysis of spatial and temporal changes of climatic drought events in a basin, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(11), 10695-10707.
Lilly J.O., (2016), A GIS Approach to Modeling Groundwater Levels in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer, Msc thesis. University of Arkansas, Arkansas.
Mahajan D.R., Dodamani, B.M., (2016), Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the Krishna river basin of Maharashtra, India, Cogent Engineering, 3(1), 1185926.
Manikandan M., Tamilmani D., (2015), Spatial and Temporal Variation of Meteorological Drought in the Parambikulam-Aliyar Basin, Tamil Nadu, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 96(3), 177-184.
McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J., (1993), The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales, Paper presented at the Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January, Anaheim, California.
Mishra S.S., Nagarajan R., (2011), Spatio-temporal drought assessment in Tel river basin using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and GIS, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2(1), 79-93.
Morid S., Smakhtin V., Moghaddasi M. (2006), Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 26(7), 971-985.
Nasrollahi M., Khosravi H., Moghaddamnia A., Malekian A., Shahid S., (2018), Assessment of drought risk index using drought hazard and vulnerability indices, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 11(20), 606, doi: 10.1007/s12517-018-3971-y.
Özcan M., (2020), Dicle Havzasının zamansal ve mekânsal kuraklık analizi, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Harran Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Şanlıurfa.
Rahman M.R., Lateh H., (2016), Meteorological drought in Bangladesh: assessing, analysing and hazard mapping using SPI, GIS and monthly rainfall data, Environmental Earth Sciences, 75(12), 1026, doi: 10.1007/s12665-016-5829-5.
Shukla S., Wood A.W., (2008), Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought, Geophysical research letters, 35(2), doi: 10.1029/2007GL032487.
Subedi M.R., Xi W., Edgar C.B., Rideout-Hanzak S., Hedquist, B.C., (2019), Assessment of geostatistical methods for spatiotemporal analysis of drought patterns in East Texas, USA. Spatial Information Research, 27(1), 11-21.
Tsakiris G., Vangelis H.J.E.W., (2005), Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration. European water, 9(10), 3-11.
URL-1 (2020). Geostatical analyst- Evaluating interpolation results- Performing cross-validation and validation. ArcGIS Desktop extensions. https://desktop.arcgis.com/en/arcmap/latest/extensions/geostatistical-analyst/performing-cross-validation-and-validation.htm, [Erişim 3 Nisan 2021].
Van Rooy M.P., (1965). A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. Weather Bureau South Africa Journal, 14(6), 43-48.
Vicente-Serrano S.M. Beguería S. López-Moreno J.I., (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. Journal of climate, 23(7), 1696-1718.
Wable P.S., Jha M.K., Shekhar A. (2019), Comparison of drought indices in a semi-arid river basin of India. Water resources management, 33(1), 75-102.
Wilhite D.A., (2005), Drought and water crises: science, technology, and management issues, CRC Press, 432ss.
Yıldırım A., (2006), Karakaya barajı ve doğal çevre etkileri, DÜ Ziya Gökalp Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 32-39.
Yıldız, M.S., (2019), Akım kuraklık indeksi yöntemi ile fırat havzasının hidrolojik kuraklık analizi/Hydrological drought analysis of euphrates basin with streamflow drought index method, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Harran Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Şanlıurfa.
Yuan S., Quiring S.M., Patil S., (2016), Spatial and temporal variations in the accuracy of meteorological drought indices, Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 42(1), 167-183.

There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language	Turkish
Subjects	Engineering
Journal Section	Research Articles
Authors	Okan Mert Katipoğlu 0000-0001-6421-6087 Reşat Acar 0000-0002-0653-1991
Publication Date	July 25, 2021
Submission Date	January 4, 2021
Acceptance Date	June 22, 2021
Published in Issue	Year 2021 Volume: 7 Issue: 2

Cite

APA	Katipoğlu, O. M., & Acar, R. (2021). Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, 7(2), 298-317. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.853893
AMA	Katipoğlu OM, Acar R. Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi. J Nat Haz Environ. July 2021;7(2):298-317. doi:10.21324/dacd.853893
Chicago	Katipoğlu, Okan Mert, and Reşat Acar. “Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları Ile Belirlenmesi”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi 7, no. 2 (July 2021): 298-317. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.853893.
EndNote	Katipoğlu OM, Acar R (July 1, 2021) Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 7 2 298–317.
IEEE	O. M. Katipoğlu and R. Acar, “Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi”, J Nat Haz Environ, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 298–317, 2021, doi: 10.21324/dacd.853893.
ISNAD	Katipoğlu, Okan Mert - Acar, Reşat. “Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları Ile Belirlenmesi”. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 7/2 (July 2021), 298-317. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.853893.
JAMA	Katipoğlu OM, Acar R. Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi. J Nat Haz Environ. 2021;7:298–317.
MLA	Katipoğlu, Okan Mert and Reşat Acar. “Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik Ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları Ile Belirlenmesi”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2021, pp. 298-17, doi:10.21324/dacd.853893.
Vancouver	Katipoğlu OM, Acar R. Fırat Havzası’ndaki Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Haritalarının Çeşitli Enterpolasyon Metotları ile Belirlenmesi. J Nat Haz Environ. 2021;7(2):298-317.