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Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye)

Year 2024, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 192 - 210, 28.01.2024

Redvan Ghasemlounıa , Mustafa Utlu

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1359193

Abstract

Drought is one of the most important challenges that many countries, especially countries in the Middle East region, are struggling with. Based on this, the study and monitoring of hydrological and drought factors is an important issue that can have a significant impact on management decisions in the field of water resources, especially in crisis management. Therefore, investigating the drought parameters is very important to understand the drought situation of a region. In this study, Alanya region, which is located on the southern coast of Turkey, was selected as a case study for drought analysis. Four drought indices for the selected region including: China Z-Index (CZI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Modified China Z-Index (MCZI) and Z-Score Index (ZSI) have been investigated. All these indicators have been investigated and evaluated using time scales of 1, 6, 12 and 24 months, the coefficient of determination (R2) has been calculated for each drought index with a different time scale and their results have been compared. The findings of the research showed that SPI and CZI drought indices performed better than other selected drought indices in identifying and effectively tracking drought severity. In addition to the study of dry events, wet events were also investigated, which indicates the presence of consecutive floods in the last years of the studied period in the region. The results indicated similar very dry events for the selected indicators in the 6-month period. Also, the rainfall trend for the period of 2015-2022 was taken into consideration to examine the rainfall of the last eight years. The results show that precipitation has decreased in recent years and has a downward trend in most months of the period in question, and the possibility of flood events due to sudden showers in the region has increased due to the continuation of droughts experienced in the years before 2015. Investigating soil moisture and vegetation for the selected period in the study area is also important for the evaluation of the drought level. Evaluation of the available land (vegetation) cover maps of the years 1975, 1985, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2022 show that the vegetation cover has weakened over the years, and it has been evaluated as an indicator that the danger of drought in the region has increased.

Keywords

Drought Z-Score Index (ZSI) Modified China Z Index (MCZI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) China Z Index (CZI)

References

  • Angelidis, P., Maris, F., Kotsovinos, N., & Hrissanthou, V. (2012). Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions. Water Resources Management, 26, 2453–2473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0026-0
  • Bonaccorso, B., Bordi, I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., & Sutera, A. (2003). Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resources Management, 17, 273–296. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024716530289
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2016). Antalya basin flood management plan. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SYGM/ Belgeler/Ta%C5%9Fk%C4%B1n%20Y%C3%B6netim%20Planlar%C4%B1%2026.12.2022/ANTALYA%20%20HAVZASI%20TA%C5%9EKIN%20YONETIM%20PLANI%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0C%C4%B0%20%C3%96ZET%C4%B0.pdf
  • General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. (2014). 2014 Annual Report. https://cdniys.tarimorman.gov.tr/api/File/GetFile/425/ KonuIcerik/759/1107/DosyaGaleri/dsi-2014-faaliyet-raporu.pdf
  • Fick, S. E., & Hijmans, R. J. (2017). WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12), 4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
  • Guttman, N. B. (1998). Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 113–121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05964.x
  • Wu, H., Hayes, M. J., Weiss, A., & Hu, Q. (2001). An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, The China-Z Index and the statistical Z-Score. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 745–758. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.658.
  • Katipoğlu, O. M., Acar, R., & Şengül, S. (2020). Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: a case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29–43. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.171
  • Kendall, M. G., & Stuart, A. (1977). The advanced theory of statistics (4th ed.). Charles Griffin & Company.
  • Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., & Tzabiras, J. (2008). Climate change effects on drought severity. Advances in Geosciences, 17, 23–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-23-2008
  • Mahmoudi, P., Rigi, A., & Miri Kamak, M. (2019). A comparative study of precipitation-based drought indices with the aim of selecting the best index for drought monitoring in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3–4), 3123–3138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02778-z
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1–2), 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993, January 17–23). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales [Conference presentation]. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California.
  • Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., & Moghaddasi, M. (2006). Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 26(7), 971–985. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1264.
  • Rahmat, S. N., Jayasuriya, N., & Bhuiyan, M. (2012, November 19–22). Trend analysis of drought using standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Victoria, Australia [Conference presentation]. 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Sydney, Australia.
  • Salehnia, N., Alizadeh, A., Sanaeinejad, H., Bannayan, M., Zarrin, A., & Hoogenboom, G. (2017). Estimation of meteorological drought indices based on AgMERRA precipitation data and station-observed precipitation data. Journal of Arid Land, 9, 797–809. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-017-0070-y
  • Weaver, S. M., Guinan, P. E., Semenova, I. G., Aloysius, N., Lupo, A. R., & Hunt, S. (2023). A case study of drought during summer 2022: A large-scale analyzed comparison of dry and moist summers in the Midwest USA. Atmosphere, 14(9), Article 1448. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091448
  • Shah, R., Bharadiya, N., & Manekar, V. (2015). Drought index computation using standardized precipitation index (SPI) method for Surat District, Gujarat. Aquatic Procedia, 4, 1243-1249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.162
  • Tallaksen, L. M., & Van Lanen, H. A. (2004). Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Elsevier Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/C2017-0-03464-X
  • Uddin, M. J., Hu, J., Islam, A. R. M. T., Eibek, K. U., & Nasrin, Z. M. (2020). A comprehensive statistical assessment of drought indices to monitor drought status in Bangladesh. Arabian Journal Geosciences, 13, Article 323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05302-0
  • Zarch, M. A. A., Sivakumar, B., & Sharma, A. (2015). Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071
  • Zeybekoğlu, U., & Aktürk, G. (2021). A comparison of the China-Z Index (CZI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for drought assessment in the Hirfanli Dam basin in central Turkey. Arabian Journal Geosciences, 14, Article 2731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09095-8
  • Wable, P. S., Jha, M. K., & Shekhar, A. (2019). Comparison of drought indices in a semi-arid river basin of India. Water Resources Management, 33, 75–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2089-z
  • Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111–120.

Meteorolojik Kuraklık İndeksleri Kullanarak Kuraklık Değerlendirmesi: Alanya (Türkiye) Vaka Çalışması

Year 2024, Volume: 10 Issue: 1, 192 - 210, 28.01.2024

Redvan Ghasemlounıa , Mustafa Utlu

https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1359193

Abstract

Kuraklık, başta Orta Doğu bölgesi ülkeleri olmak üzere pek çok ülkenin mücadele ettiği en önemli sorunlardan biridir. Buradan yola çıkarak hidrolojik ve kuraklık faktörlerinin incelenmesi ve izlenmesi, su kaynakları alanında, özellikle kriz yönetiminde yönetim kararlarını önemli ölçüde etkileyebilecek önemli bir konudur. Bu nedenle kuraklık parametrelerinin araştırılması bir bölgenin kuraklık durumunun anlaşılması açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye'nin güney kıyısında yer alan Alanya bölgesi kuraklık analizi için örnek vaka çalışması olarak seçilmiştir. Seçilen bölge için Çin Z-İndeksi (CZI), Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI), Modifiye Çin Z-İndeksi (MCZI) ve Z-Score İndeksi (ZSI) dahil olmak üzere dört kuraklık indeksi araştırılmıştır. Tüm bu göstergeler 1, 6, 12 ve 24 aylık zaman ölçekleri kullanılarak incelenmiş ve değerlendirilmiş olup, her bir kuraklık indeksi için farklı zaman ölçeği için R2 hesaplanmış ve sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. Araştırmanın bulguları, SPI ve CZI kuraklık endekslerinin, kuraklık şiddetini belirleme ve etkili bir şekilde izleme konusunda seçilen diğer kuraklık endekslerinden daha iyi performans gösterdiğini göstermiştir. Kurak olayların incelenmesinin yanı sıra, bölgede incelenen dönemin son yıllarında art arda taşkınların varlığına işaret eden ıslak olaylar da araştırılmıştır. Sonuçlar, seçilen göstergeler için 6 aylık dönemde benzer çok kuru olayların yaşandığını gösterdi. Ayrıca son sekiz yılın yağışlarının incelenmesinde 2015-2022 dönemi yağış eğilimi de dikkate alınmıştır. Sonuçlar, son yıllarda yağışların azaldığı ve söz konusu dönemin çoğu ayında düşüş eğiliminde olduğunu, 2015 yılı öncesi yıllarda yaşanan kuraklıkların devam ettiği nedeniyle bölgede ani sağanaklardan dolayı taşkın olaylarının yaşanma olasılığının arttığını göstermektedir. Çalışma alanında seçilen döneme ait toprak nemi ve bitki örtüsünün araştırılması kuraklık düzeyinin değerlendirilmesi açısından da önemlidir. 1975, 1985, 2000, 2010, 2020 ve 2022 yıllarına ait bitki örtüsü haritalarının incelenmesi sonucu, bitki örtüsünün yıllar geçtikçe zayıflandığı görülmekte olup, bölgedeki kuraklık tehlikesinin arttığının bir göstergesi olarak değerlendirilmiştir.

Keywords

Kuraklık Z-Skor İndisi (ZSI) Modifiye Çin Z Indisi (MCZI) Standart Yağış İndisi (SPI) Çin Z İndisi (CZI)

References

  • Angelidis, P., Maris, F., Kotsovinos, N., & Hrissanthou, V. (2012). Computation of drought index SPI with alternative distribution functions. Water Resources Management, 26, 2453–2473. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0026-0
  • Bonaccorso, B., Bordi, I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., & Sutera, A. (2003). Spatial variability of drought: an analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resources Management, 17, 273–296. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024716530289
  • General Directorate of Water Management. (2016). Antalya basin flood management plan. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SYGM/ Belgeler/Ta%C5%9Fk%C4%B1n%20Y%C3%B6netim%20Planlar%C4%B1%2026.12.2022/ANTALYA%20%20HAVZASI%20TA%C5%9EKIN%20YONETIM%20PLANI%20Y%C3%96NET%C4%B0C%C4%B0%20%C3%96ZET%C4%B0.pdf
  • General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. (2014). 2014 Annual Report. https://cdniys.tarimorman.gov.tr/api/File/GetFile/425/ KonuIcerik/759/1107/DosyaGaleri/dsi-2014-faaliyet-raporu.pdf
  • Fick, S. E., & Hijmans, R. J. (2017). WorldClim 2: new 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12), 4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086
  • Guttman, N. B. (1998). Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 113–121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05964.x
  • Wu, H., Hayes, M. J., Weiss, A., & Hu, Q. (2001). An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, The China-Z Index and the statistical Z-Score. International Journal of Climatology, 21, 745–758. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.658.
  • Katipoğlu, O. M., Acar, R., & Şengül, S. (2020). Comparison of meteorological indices for drought monitoring and evaluating: a case study from Euphrates basin, Turkey. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(S1), 29–43. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.171
  • Kendall, M. G., & Stuart, A. (1977). The advanced theory of statistics (4th ed.). Charles Griffin & Company.
  • Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L., & Tzabiras, J. (2008). Climate change effects on drought severity. Advances in Geosciences, 17, 23–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-17-23-2008
  • Mahmoudi, P., Rigi, A., & Miri Kamak, M. (2019). A comparative study of precipitation-based drought indices with the aim of selecting the best index for drought monitoring in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3–4), 3123–3138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02778-z
  • Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391(1–2), 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  • McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993, January 17–23). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales [Conference presentation]. Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Anaheim, California.
  • Morid, S., Smakhtin, V., & Moghaddasi, M. (2006). Comparison of seven meteorological indices for drought monitoring in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 26(7), 971–985. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1264.
  • Rahmat, S. N., Jayasuriya, N., & Bhuiyan, M. (2012, November 19–22). Trend analysis of drought using standardised precipitation index (SPI) in Victoria, Australia [Conference presentation]. 34th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Sydney, Australia.
  • Salehnia, N., Alizadeh, A., Sanaeinejad, H., Bannayan, M., Zarrin, A., & Hoogenboom, G. (2017). Estimation of meteorological drought indices based on AgMERRA precipitation data and station-observed precipitation data. Journal of Arid Land, 9, 797–809. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-017-0070-y
  • Weaver, S. M., Guinan, P. E., Semenova, I. G., Aloysius, N., Lupo, A. R., & Hunt, S. (2023). A case study of drought during summer 2022: A large-scale analyzed comparison of dry and moist summers in the Midwest USA. Atmosphere, 14(9), Article 1448. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091448
  • Shah, R., Bharadiya, N., & Manekar, V. (2015). Drought index computation using standardized precipitation index (SPI) method for Surat District, Gujarat. Aquatic Procedia, 4, 1243-1249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.162
  • Tallaksen, L. M., & Van Lanen, H. A. (2004). Hydrological drought: processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Elsevier Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/C2017-0-03464-X
  • Uddin, M. J., Hu, J., Islam, A. R. M. T., Eibek, K. U., & Nasrin, Z. M. (2020). A comprehensive statistical assessment of drought indices to monitor drought status in Bangladesh. Arabian Journal Geosciences, 13, Article 323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05302-0
  • Zarch, M. A. A., Sivakumar, B., & Sharma, A. (2015). Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI). Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09.071
  • Zeybekoğlu, U., & Aktürk, G. (2021). A comparison of the China-Z Index (CZI) and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for drought assessment in the Hirfanli Dam basin in central Turkey. Arabian Journal Geosciences, 14, Article 2731. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09095-8
  • Wable, P. S., Jha, M. K., & Shekhar, A. (2019). Comparison of drought indices in a semi-arid river basin of India. Water Resources Management, 33, 75–102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-018-2089-z
  • Wilhite, D. A., & Glantz, M. H. (1985). Understanding: the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water International, 10(3), 111–120.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Civil Engineering (Other), Natural Hazards, Hydrology (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Redvan Ghasemlounıa 0000-0003-1796-4562

Mustafa Utlu 0000-0002-7508-4478

Publication Date January 28, 2024
Submission Date September 12, 2023
Acceptance Date January 24, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 10 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ghasemlounıa, R., & Utlu, M. (2024). Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye). Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, 10(1), 192-210. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1359193
AMA Ghasemlounıa R, Utlu M. Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye). J Nat Haz Environ. January 2024;10(1):192-210. doi:10.21324/dacd.1359193
Chicago Ghasemlounıa, Redvan, and Mustafa Utlu. “Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye)”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi 10, no. 1 (January 2024): 192-210. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1359193.
EndNote Ghasemlounıa R, Utlu M (January 1, 2024) Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye). Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 10 1 192–210.
IEEE R. Ghasemlounıa and M. Utlu, “Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye)”, J Nat Haz Environ, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 192–210, 2024, doi: 10.21324/dacd.1359193.
ISNAD Ghasemlounıa, Redvan - Utlu, Mustafa. “Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye)”. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi 10/1 (January 2024), 192-210. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.1359193.
JAMA Ghasemlounıa R, Utlu M. Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye). J Nat Haz Environ. 2024;10:192–210.
MLA Ghasemlounıa, Redvan and Mustafa Utlu. “Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye)”. Doğal Afetler Ve Çevre Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, 2024, pp. 192-10, doi:10.21324/dacd.1359193.
Vancouver Ghasemlounıa R, Utlu M. Evaluation of Drought Using Meteorological Drought Indices, a Case Study: Alanya (Türkiye). J Nat Haz Environ. 2024;10(1):192-210.
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