Review
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REVISITING THE DEBATE ON THE OBSOLESCENCE & CHANGING CHARACTER OF WARS: SCHOOLS, ARGUMENTS & CRITIQUES

Year 2025, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 161 - 182, 02.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.1516943

Abstract

This study examines the debate on the obsolescence of interstate wars and the new wars paradigm. Since the end of the Cold War, peace and conflict studies have explored the evolving characteristics and potential decline of interstate wars. Some scholars argue that (major) interstate wars have become obsolete due to economic, social, and political progress and technological advances. Others highlight the increasing prevalence of intrastate wars characterized by privatization and demilitarization of violence, asymmetry, and identity orientation. This debate centers on the dichotomy between “old wars” and “new wars,” emphasizing their economic dimension and post-Clausewitzian nature. In accordance with the critiques of the new wars paradigm, the recent conflicts in Ukraine, Palestine, and Ethiopia underscore the continued relevance of interstate wars and the enduring significance of Clausewitzian warfare in contemporary conflicts. By tracing the origins of the new wars paradigm, this study provides a comprehensive examination of the future of interstate wars and Clausewitzian warfare, concluding that these remain significant in contemporary conflicts as well as international politics.

Ethical Statement

This review paper does not require ethics committee approval and/or legal special permission.

Supporting Institution

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Project Number

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Thanks

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References

  • Berdal, M. (2003). How “New” Are “New Wars”? Global Economic Change and the Study of Civil War. Global Governance, 9(4), 477–502.
  • Berdal, M. (2005). Beyond Greed and Grievance – and Not Too Soon …. Review of International Studies, 31(4), 687–698.
  • Biddle, S. (2023). Back in the Trenches: Why New Technology Hasn’t Revolutionized Warfare in Ukraine. Foreign Affairs, 102(5), 153+.
  • Boot, M. (2006). War Made New: Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History: 1500 to Today. Gotham Books.
  • Brzoska, M. (2004). “New Wars” Discourse in Germany. Journal of Peace Research, 41(1), Article 1.
  • Clausewitz, C. von. (1989). On War (M. Howard & P. Paret, Trans.). Princeton University Press.
  • Doyle, M. W. (1983a). Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs*. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 12(3), 205–235.
  • Doyle, M. W. (1983b). Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 12(4), 323–353.
  • Duffield, M. (2001). Global Governance and the New Wars. Zed Books.
  • Early, B. R., & Asal, V. (2018). Nuclear Weapons, Existential Threats, and the Stability–Instability Paradox. The Nonproliferation Review, 25(3–4), 223–247.
  • Fearon, J. D. (2017). Civil War & the Current International System. Daedalus, 146(4), 18–32.
  • Freedman, L. (2013). Strategy. Oxford University Press.
  • Fukuyama, F. (1989). The End of History? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.
  • Gartzke, E. (2007). The Capitalist Peace. American Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 166–191.
  • Gat, A. (2017). The Causes of War and the Spread of Peace: But Will War Rebound? (1st Edition). Oxford University Press.
  • Goldstein, J. S. (2011). Winning the War on War. Penguin Publishing Group.
  • Gray, C. H. (1997). Postmodern War: The New Politics of War. The Guilford Press.
  • Hartzell, C. A. (2016). Civil War Termination. In W. R. Thompson (Ed.), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press.
  • Henderson, E., & Singer, J. (2002). “New Wars” and Rumors of “New Wars.” International Interactions, 28(2), 165–190.
  • Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Holsti, K. J. (2004). The State, War, and the State of War. Cambridge University Press.
  • Horowitz, D. L. (1985). Ethnic Groups in Conflict. University of California Press.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1993). The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 22–49.
  • Jervis, R. (1979). Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn’t Matter. Political Science Quarterly, 94(4), 617–634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2149629
  • Kaldor, M. (2012). New and Old Wars (3rd Edition). Polity Press.
  • Kaldor, M. (2013). In Defence of New Wars. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 2(1), 1–16.
  • Kalyvas, S. N. (2001). “New” and “Old” Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction? World Politics, 54(1), 99–118.
  • Kalyvas, S. N. (2006). The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press.
  • Kaplan, R. D. (2000). The Coming Anarchy. Random House.
  • Kaufman, S. J. (2001). Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War. Cornell University Press.
  • Keegan, J. (1993). A History of Warfare. Vintage Books.
  • Keen, D. (2000). Incentives and Disincentives for Violence. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 19–42). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Keen, D. (2011). Greed and Grievance in Civil War. International Affairs, 88(4), 757–777.
  • Keen, D. (2012). Useful Enemies: When Waging Wars Is More Important Than Winning Them. Yale University Press.
  • Kennedy, C., & Waldman, T. (2014). The Changing Nature of Intrastate Conflict and “New Wars” . In E. Newman & K. DeRouen Jr. (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars (pp. 213–223). Routledge.
  • Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and Interdependence (4th ed.). Longman.
  • Krauthammer, C. (1990). The Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs, 70(1), 23–33.
  • Krepinevich, A. F. (1994). Cavalry to Computer: The Pattern of Military Revolutions. The National Interest, 37, 30–42.
  • Krieg, A., & Rickli, J.-M. (2019). Surrogate Warfare: The Transformation of War in the Twenty-First Century. Georgetown University Press.
  • Lake, D. A., & Rothchild, D. (1996). Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security, 21(2), 41–75.
  • Levy, J. S., & Thompson, W. R. (2011). The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation. The University of Chicago Press.
  • Malešević, S. (2008). The Sociology of New Wars? Assessing the Causes and Objectives of Contemporary Violent Conflicts. International Political Sociology, 2(2), 97–112.
  • Malešević, S. (2014). Is War Becoming Obsolete? A Sociological Analysis. The Sociological Review, 62(S2), 65–86.
  • Mandelbaum, M. (2022). The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy: Weak Power, Great Power, Superpower, Hyperpower. Oxford University Press.
  • Mann, M. (2018). Have Wars and Violence Declined? Theory and Society, 47, 37–60.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security, 15(1), 5–56.
  • Mello, P. A. (2010). Review Article: In Search of New Wars: The Debate About a Transformation of War. European Journal of International Relations, 16(2), 297–309.
  • Mueller, J. (2000). The Banality of “Ethnic War.” International Security, 25(1), 42–70.
  • Mueller, J. (2001). Retreat From Doomsday. Basic Books.
  • Mueller, J. (2004). The Remnants of War. Cornell University Press.
  • Münkler, H. (2003). The Wars of the 21st Century. International Review of the Red Cross, 85(849), 7–22.
  • Newman, E. (2014). Understanding Civil Wars. Routledge.
  • Oneal, J. R., & Russett, B. (1999). Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 36(4), 423–442.
  • Organski, A. F. K. (1968). World Politics (2nd Edition). Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Overy, R. (2024, June 23). Why it’s Too Late to Stop World War 3 – According to One of Britain’s Greatest Military Historians. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/authors/world-war-three-too-late-history-violence/
  • Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature. Viking.
  • Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge.
  • Racker, M. (2023, November 20). Why So Many Politicians Are Talking About World War III. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/
  • Rauchhaus, R. (2009). Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis: A Quantitative Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(2), 258–277.
  • Reno, W. (2000). Shadow States and the Political Economy of Civil Wars. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 43–68). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Robinson, P. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the (Un)Changing Character of War. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 22(2), 65-88.
  • Rosecrance, R. (1986). The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World. Basic Books.
  • Russett, B., Antholis, W., Ember, C. R., Ember, M., & Maoz, Z. (1993). Why Democratic Peace? In Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Revised Edition, pp. 24–42). Princeton University Press.
  • Rustad, S. A. (2024). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946-2023 [PRIO Paper]. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
  • Sagan, S. D., & Waltz, K. N. (1995). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (1st Edition). W. W. Norton.
  • Schelling, T. (2008). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press.
  • Shaw, M. (2002). Risk-Transfer Militarism, Small Massacres and the Historic Legitimacy of War. International Relations, 16(3), 343–359.
  • Shaw, M. (2008). War and Genocide. Polity.
  • Shearer, D. (2000). Aiding or Abetting? Humanitarian Aid and Its Economic Role in Civil War. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 189–204). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Smith, B. (2018). Two Dogmas of the New War Thesis. International Journal of Military History and Historiography, 38(1), 92–120.
  • Smith, R. (2007). The Utility of Force. Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Stewart, F. (2008). Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: An Introduction and some Hypotheses. In F. Stewart (Ed.), Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict. Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies (pp. 3–24). Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Tilly, C. (1985). War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer, & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the State Back In (pp. 169–191). Cambridge University Press.
  • van Creveld, M. (1991). The Transformation of War. Free Press.
  • Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43.
  • Walter, B. F. (2017). The New New Civil Wars. Annual Review of Political Science, 20(1), 469–486.
  • Waltz, K. N. (1981). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better (Adelphi Papers 171; pp. 1–36). International Institute for Strategic Studies.

SAVAŞLARIN GEÇERLİLİĞİNİ YİTİRMESİ VE DEĞİŞEN KARAKTERİ TARTIŞMASINA YENİDEN BAKIŞ: EKOLLER, ARGÜMANLAR & ELEŞTİRİLER

Year 2025, Volume: 14 Issue: 1, 161 - 182, 02.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.1516943

Abstract

Bu çalışma, devletler arası savaşların geçerliliğini yitirmesi ve yeni savaşlar paradigması üzerine olan tartışmaları incelemektedir. Soğuk Savaş'ın sona ermesinden bu yana barış ve çatışma çalışmaları, devletler arası savaşların değişen özelliklerini ve olası gerilemelerini araştırmaktadır. Bazı akademisyenler; ekonomik, sosyal ve politik ilerlemeler ile teknolojik gelişmeler nedeniyle (büyük) devletler arası savaşların geçerliliğini yitirdiğini savunmaktadır. Diğerleri ise şiddetin özelleştirilmesi ve demilitarizasyonu, asimetri ve kimlik yönelimi ile karakterize edilen devlet içi savaşların artan yaygınlığına dikkat çekmektedir. Bu tartışma, “eski savaşlar” ve “yeni savaşlar” arasındaki ikiliğe odaklanarak bu savaşların ekonomik boyutunu ve post-Clausewitzyen doğasını vurgulamaktadır. Yeni savaşlar paradigmasının eleştirilerine uygun olarak Ukrayna, Filistin ve Etiyopya'daki son çatışmalar, devletler arası savaşların devam eden önemini ve Clausewitzyen savaşın çağdaş çatışmalardaki kalıcı etkisini vurgulamaktadır. Bu çalışma, yeni savaşlar paradigmasının kökenlerinin izini sürerek devletler arası savaşların ve Clausewitzyen savaşın geleceğine kapsamlı bir inceleme sunmakta ve bunların çağdaş çatışmalarda olduğu kadar uluslararası politikada da önemli unsurlar olarak kalmaya devam ettiği sonucuna varmaktadır.

Ethical Statement

Bu derleme makalesi etik kurul onayı ve/veya yasal özel izin gerektirmemektedir.

Supporting Institution

-

Project Number

-

Thanks

-

References

  • Berdal, M. (2003). How “New” Are “New Wars”? Global Economic Change and the Study of Civil War. Global Governance, 9(4), 477–502.
  • Berdal, M. (2005). Beyond Greed and Grievance – and Not Too Soon …. Review of International Studies, 31(4), 687–698.
  • Biddle, S. (2023). Back in the Trenches: Why New Technology Hasn’t Revolutionized Warfare in Ukraine. Foreign Affairs, 102(5), 153+.
  • Boot, M. (2006). War Made New: Technology, Warfare, and the Course of History: 1500 to Today. Gotham Books.
  • Brzoska, M. (2004). “New Wars” Discourse in Germany. Journal of Peace Research, 41(1), Article 1.
  • Clausewitz, C. von. (1989). On War (M. Howard & P. Paret, Trans.). Princeton University Press.
  • Doyle, M. W. (1983a). Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs*. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 12(3), 205–235.
  • Doyle, M. W. (1983b). Kant, Liberal Legacies, and Foreign Affairs, Part 2. Philosophy & Public Affairs, 12(4), 323–353.
  • Duffield, M. (2001). Global Governance and the New Wars. Zed Books.
  • Early, B. R., & Asal, V. (2018). Nuclear Weapons, Existential Threats, and the Stability–Instability Paradox. The Nonproliferation Review, 25(3–4), 223–247.
  • Fearon, J. D. (2017). Civil War & the Current International System. Daedalus, 146(4), 18–32.
  • Freedman, L. (2013). Strategy. Oxford University Press.
  • Fukuyama, F. (1989). The End of History? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.
  • Gartzke, E. (2007). The Capitalist Peace. American Journal of Political Science, 51(1), 166–191.
  • Gat, A. (2017). The Causes of War and the Spread of Peace: But Will War Rebound? (1st Edition). Oxford University Press.
  • Goldstein, J. S. (2011). Winning the War on War. Penguin Publishing Group.
  • Gray, C. H. (1997). Postmodern War: The New Politics of War. The Guilford Press.
  • Hartzell, C. A. (2016). Civil War Termination. In W. R. Thompson (Ed.), Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press.
  • Henderson, E., & Singer, J. (2002). “New Wars” and Rumors of “New Wars.” International Interactions, 28(2), 165–190.
  • Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars. Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Holsti, K. J. (2004). The State, War, and the State of War. Cambridge University Press.
  • Horowitz, D. L. (1985). Ethnic Groups in Conflict. University of California Press.
  • Huntington, S. P. (1993). The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs, 72(3), 22–49.
  • Jervis, R. (1979). Why Nuclear Superiority Doesn’t Matter. Political Science Quarterly, 94(4), 617–634. https://doi.org/10.2307/2149629
  • Kaldor, M. (2012). New and Old Wars (3rd Edition). Polity Press.
  • Kaldor, M. (2013). In Defence of New Wars. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 2(1), 1–16.
  • Kalyvas, S. N. (2001). “New” and “Old” Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction? World Politics, 54(1), 99–118.
  • Kalyvas, S. N. (2006). The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge University Press.
  • Kaplan, R. D. (2000). The Coming Anarchy. Random House.
  • Kaufman, S. J. (2001). Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War. Cornell University Press.
  • Keegan, J. (1993). A History of Warfare. Vintage Books.
  • Keen, D. (2000). Incentives and Disincentives for Violence. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 19–42). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Keen, D. (2011). Greed and Grievance in Civil War. International Affairs, 88(4), 757–777.
  • Keen, D. (2012). Useful Enemies: When Waging Wars Is More Important Than Winning Them. Yale University Press.
  • Kennedy, C., & Waldman, T. (2014). The Changing Nature of Intrastate Conflict and “New Wars” . In E. Newman & K. DeRouen Jr. (Eds.), Routledge Handbook of Civil Wars (pp. 213–223). Routledge.
  • Keohane, R. O., & Nye, J. S. (2012). Power and Interdependence (4th ed.). Longman.
  • Krauthammer, C. (1990). The Unipolar Moment. Foreign Affairs, 70(1), 23–33.
  • Krepinevich, A. F. (1994). Cavalry to Computer: The Pattern of Military Revolutions. The National Interest, 37, 30–42.
  • Krieg, A., & Rickli, J.-M. (2019). Surrogate Warfare: The Transformation of War in the Twenty-First Century. Georgetown University Press.
  • Lake, D. A., & Rothchild, D. (1996). Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security, 21(2), 41–75.
  • Levy, J. S., & Thompson, W. R. (2011). The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation. The University of Chicago Press.
  • Malešević, S. (2008). The Sociology of New Wars? Assessing the Causes and Objectives of Contemporary Violent Conflicts. International Political Sociology, 2(2), 97–112.
  • Malešević, S. (2014). Is War Becoming Obsolete? A Sociological Analysis. The Sociological Review, 62(S2), 65–86.
  • Mandelbaum, M. (2022). The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy: Weak Power, Great Power, Superpower, Hyperpower. Oxford University Press.
  • Mann, M. (2018). Have Wars and Violence Declined? Theory and Society, 47, 37–60.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War. International Security, 15(1), 5–56.
  • Mello, P. A. (2010). Review Article: In Search of New Wars: The Debate About a Transformation of War. European Journal of International Relations, 16(2), 297–309.
  • Mueller, J. (2000). The Banality of “Ethnic War.” International Security, 25(1), 42–70.
  • Mueller, J. (2001). Retreat From Doomsday. Basic Books.
  • Mueller, J. (2004). The Remnants of War. Cornell University Press.
  • Münkler, H. (2003). The Wars of the 21st Century. International Review of the Red Cross, 85(849), 7–22.
  • Newman, E. (2014). Understanding Civil Wars. Routledge.
  • Oneal, J. R., & Russett, B. (1999). Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 36(4), 423–442.
  • Organski, A. F. K. (1968). World Politics (2nd Edition). Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Overy, R. (2024, June 23). Why it’s Too Late to Stop World War 3 – According to One of Britain’s Greatest Military Historians. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/books/authors/world-war-three-too-late-history-violence/
  • Pinker, S. (2011). The Better Angels of Our Nature. Viking.
  • Popper, K. (2002). The Logic of Scientific Discovery. Routledge.
  • Racker, M. (2023, November 20). Why So Many Politicians Are Talking About World War III. Time Magazine. https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/
  • Rauchhaus, R. (2009). Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis: A Quantitative Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 53(2), 258–277.
  • Reno, W. (2000). Shadow States and the Political Economy of Civil Wars. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 43–68). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Robinson, P. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the (Un)Changing Character of War. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 22(2), 65-88.
  • Rosecrance, R. (1986). The Rise of the Trading State: Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World. Basic Books.
  • Russett, B., Antholis, W., Ember, C. R., Ember, M., & Maoz, Z. (1993). Why Democratic Peace? In Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Revised Edition, pp. 24–42). Princeton University Press.
  • Rustad, S. A. (2024). Conflict Trends: A Global Overview, 1946-2023 [PRIO Paper]. Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
  • Sagan, S. D., & Waltz, K. N. (1995). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (1st Edition). W. W. Norton.
  • Schelling, T. (2008). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press.
  • Shaw, M. (2002). Risk-Transfer Militarism, Small Massacres and the Historic Legitimacy of War. International Relations, 16(3), 343–359.
  • Shaw, M. (2008). War and Genocide. Polity.
  • Shearer, D. (2000). Aiding or Abetting? Humanitarian Aid and Its Economic Role in Civil War. In M. R. Berdal & D. Malone (Eds.), Greed and Grievance. Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (pp. 189–204). Lynne Rienner Publishers.
  • Smith, B. (2018). Two Dogmas of the New War Thesis. International Journal of Military History and Historiography, 38(1), 92–120.
  • Smith, R. (2007). The Utility of Force. Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Stewart, F. (2008). Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: An Introduction and some Hypotheses. In F. Stewart (Ed.), Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict. Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies (pp. 3–24). Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Tilly, C. (1985). War Making and State Making as Organized Crime. In P. B. Evans, D. Rueschemeyer, & T. Skocpol (Eds.), Bringing the State Back In (pp. 169–191). Cambridge University Press.
  • van Creveld, M. (1991). The Transformation of War. Free Press.
  • Walt, S. M. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3–43.
  • Walter, B. F. (2017). The New New Civil Wars. Annual Review of Political Science, 20(1), 469–486.
  • Waltz, K. N. (1981). The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better (Adelphi Papers 171; pp. 1–36). International Institute for Strategic Studies.
There are 77 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Military Sociology
Journal Section Derleme
Authors

Yunus Öztürk 0000-0002-6274-5230

Project Number -
Publication Date June 2, 2025
Submission Date July 16, 2024
Acceptance Date May 30, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 14 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Öztürk, Y. (2025). REVISITING THE DEBATE ON THE OBSOLESCENCE & CHANGING CHARACTER OF WARS: SCHOOLS, ARGUMENTS & CRITIQUES. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 14(1), 161-182. https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.1516943

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