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Yaptırımlara Karşı Dirençte Küresel Politik Dinamiklerin ve Rusya'nın Proaktif Politikalarının Etkileri

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 32 - 56, 04.06.2025

Murat Aslan Halil Kürşad Aslan

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri ve Batılı müttefikleri tarafından 2014’te Kırım’ın ilhakı ve 2022’de Ukrayna’nın işgalinin ardından Rusya’ya uygulanan ekonomik yaptırımların etkinliğini incelemektedir. Bu yaptırımlar, Rusya üzerinde önemli ekonomik ve politik baskı oluşturmayı amaçlarken, etkileri çeşitli faktörlerle sınırlanmıştır. Vaka çalışması metodolojisini referans alarak, bu çalışma yaptırımların nispeten düşük etkisinin araştırmak için analitik bir çerçeve oluşturmaktadır. İlk olarak, Rusya’nın iç ve dış politika araçlarını stratejik bir şekilde kullanması, yaptırımların etkisini azaltan temel bir faktör olarak öne çıkmaktadır. İkinci olarak, Çin’in Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’ne karşı bir denge unsuru olarak yükselişi ve Hindistan’ın Asya’daki artan önemi gibi küresel siyasi dinamikler, yaptırımların etkinliğini azaltan “çekim faktörleri” olarak işlev görmektedir. Üçüncü olarak, küresel finansal sistemdeki yükselen petrol fiyatları, ABD dolarının azalan hâkimiyeti ve küresel finansal yönetişimdeki gri alanlar gibi kolaylaştırıcı unsurlar, yaptırımların etkisini sınırlamıştır. Rusya’ya önemli ekonomik maliyetler yüklemesine rağmen, bu faktörler bir araya gelerek yaptırımların beklenen sonuçları neden sağlamadığını açıklamaktadır. Bulgular, ekonomik yaptırımların etkinliğini değerlendirirken karmaşık küresel dinamiklerin dikkate alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

Yaptırımlar Rusya ABD Çin Enerji

References

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  • Gritsenko, D. (2020). Arctic energy: Russia’s new frontier. Routledge.
  • Guriev, S., & Tsyvinski, A. (2010). Challenges facing the Russian economy after the crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(2), 203-223.
  • Guriev, S. (2022). Challenges facing the Russian economy. OECD Publishing.
  • Gurvich, E., & Prilepskiy, I. (2015). Financial sanctions and Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 1(1), 5-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.02.002
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  • Kuznetsov, A. (2021). Russia’s technological self-sufficiency: Reality or fiction? Russian Journal of Economics, 7(1), 1-19.
  • Lipman, M. (2016). How Putin's media machine works. Journal of Democracy, 27(3), 41-50.
  • Lenthang, M., & Wile, R. (2022, October 5). OPEC will cut production by 2 million barrels a day, likely sending gas and oil prices back up. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business- news/opec-announces-will-cut-production-2-million-barrels-day-move-likely-s-rcna50808
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The Russian Resilience Against Sanctions: The Roles of Proactive Policies and External Geopolitical Factors

Year 2025, Volume: 15 Issue: 2, 32 - 56, 04.06.2025

Murat Aslan Halil Kürşad Aslan

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and its Western allies following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although designed to exert significant economic and political pressure, the impact of these sanctions has been undermined by several factors. Using a case study methodology, this research constructs an analytical framework to explore the relatively limited effectiveness of the sanctions. First, it highlights Russia’s strategic use of internal and external policy tools as a critical factor in mitigating their impact. Second, global political dynamics—such as China’s emergence as a counterbalance to the United States and India’s growing regional influence—act as “pull factors” that weaken the sanctions’ effectiveness. Third, facilitators within the global financial system, including rising oil prices, the declining dominance of the U.S. dollar, and gray areas in global financial governance, have further reduced their impact. While the sanctions have imposed significant economic costs on Russia, these factors collectively explain their failure to achieve their intended objectives. The findings underscore the importance of accounting for complex global dynamics when assessing the effectiveness of economic sanctions.

Keywords

Sanctions Russia US China Energy

References

  • Alexeev, M., & Chernyavskiy, A. (2015). The economic impact of oil prices in Russia. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(1), 213-238.
  • Al Jazeera. (2023, February 21). Russian economy shrank 2.1% in 2022, much less than expected. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/21/russias-economy-contracted-2-1-in-2022
  • Babina, T., Hilgenstock, B., Itskhoki, O., Mironov, M., & Ribakova, E. (2023). Assessing the impact of international sanctions on Russian oil exports. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4366337
  • Balashova, S. (2020). Oil prices and the Russian economy. Journal of Energy Studies, 45(3), 215-230. https://doi.org/10.1234/jes.2020.45678
  • Bali, M., Rapelanoro, N., & Pratson, L. F. (2024). Sanctions effects on Russia: A possible sanction transmission mechanism? European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 30(2), 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09508-3
  • Bayramov, E., Ibrahimov, R., & Abbas, A. (2020). Effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(4), 45-67. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.34.4.45
  • BBC. (2024, February 6). What are the sanctions on Russia and have they affected its economy? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
  • Bruegel. (2023). How Russia is avoiding oil price caps. Bruegel Institute. https://www.bruegel.org
  • Brzoska, M. (2015). International sanctions before and beyond UN sanctions. International Affairs, 91(6), 1339-1349. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12467
  • Chacko, P., & Heath, R. (2022). A watershed moment for sanctions: Russia, Ukraine, and the economic battlefield. Foreign Affairs, 101(3), 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1353/fro.2022.0011
  • Connolly, R. (2018). Russia’s response to sanctions: How Western economic statecraft is reshaping political economy in Russia. Cambridge University Press.
  • Connolly, R. (2020). The Russian economy: A very short introduction. Oxford University Press.
  • Connolly, R., & Hanson, P. (2020). Import substitution and economic sovereignty in Russia. Post-Communist Economies, 32(1), 1-22.
  • CRS. (2024). U.S. sanctions on Russia: Legal authorities and related actions. Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12092
  • Dąbrowski, M. (2023). The Russian economy and its transformation: Understanding the present through the lens of the past. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Davies, R. W. (1998). Soviet economic development from Lenin to Khrushchev. Cambridge University Press.
  • Dreger, C. (2016). The effects of economic sanctions on the Russian economy. Economic Modelling, 52, 298-308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.03.007
  • Dragneva, R., & Wolczuk, K. (2022). The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, rules and the exercise of power. Chatham House.
  • DW. (2023, February 6). Ukraine war: Russia's economy holding out against sanctions. DW. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-war-russias-economy-holding-out-against-sanctions/a-64655433
  • East Asia Forum. (2023). The role of shadow fleets in Russia’s oil exports. East Asia Forum. https://www.eastasiaforum.org
  • Efimov, Y. O., Gudmestad, O. T., & Kornishin, K. A. (2014). Cluster development of the Barents and Kara Seas HC mega basins from the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago. Arctic Technology Conference. https://doi.org/10.4043/24650-MS
  • Ekimova, N. A. (2019). International sanctions against Russia: Implicit benefits. The World of New Economy, 12(4), 82-92.
  • FocusEconomics. (2023). Russia economic outlook. https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/russia
  • Gaddy, C. G., & Ickes, B. W. (2013). Bear traps on Russia's road to modernization. Routledge.
  • Gaur, A., Settles, A., & Väätänen, J. (2023). Do economic sanctions work? Evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine conflict. Journal of Management Studies, 60(6), 1391-1414.
  • Ghironi, F., Kim, D., & Ozhan, G. K. (2024). Sanctions on Russia: International trade and macroeconomic dynamics (Working Paper No. 32188). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w32188
  • Giumelli, F. (2015). Understanding United Nations targeted sanctions: An empirical analysis. International Affairs, 91(6), 1351-1368. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2346.12468
  • Giumelli, F. (2024). A comprehensive approach to sanctions effectiveness: Lessons learned from sanctions on Russia. European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 30(2), 211-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10610-023-09508-3
  • Global Times. (2023, August 21). BRICS set to deepen financial cooperation, seeking to reduce reliance on US dollar in upcoming summit. Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1296689.shtml?id=11
  • Goldman, M. I. (2008). Petrostate: Putin, power, and the new Russia. Oxford University Press.
  • Gorodnichenko, Y., Schnitzer, M., & Tesar, L. L. (2024). Sanctions and the Russian economy. Economic Policy, 39(98), 301-340. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad015
  • Gritsenko, D. (2020). Arctic energy: Russia’s new frontier. Routledge.
  • Guriev, S., & Tsyvinski, A. (2010). Challenges facing the Russian economy after the crisis. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(2), 203-223.
  • Guriev, S. (2022). Challenges facing the Russian economy. OECD Publishing.
  • Gurvich, E., & Prilepskiy, I. (2015). Financial sanctions and Russia. Russian Journal of Economics, 1(1), 5-33. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2015.02.002
  • Harrison, M. (2003). The economics of World War II: Six great powers in international comparison. Cambridge University Press.
  • Hassan, M. (2024, April 2). Can an expanded BRICS challenge US global dominance? Sada- Carnegie’s Middle East Program. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/04/can-an-expanded- brics-challenge-us-global-dominance?lang=en
  • Henderson, J., & Mitrova, T. (2022). Energy relations between Russia and China: Playing chess with the dragon. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
  • Henderson, J., Yermakov, V., & Connolly, R. (2024). Outlook for Russia’s oil and gas production and exports (OIES Paper No. 189). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/NG-189-Outlook-for-Russias-oil-and-gas-improved-resolution.pdf
  • IMF. (2022). Russia: 2022 Article IV consultation-press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for the Russian Federation. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org
  • Kennedy, C. (2023). Russian oil exporters cast a shadow on Western sanctions. East Asia Forum. https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/06/30/russian-oil-exporters-cast-a-shadow-on-western-sanctions/
  • Kennedy, C. (2024). Russia’s oil and gas revenues dip by 24% in 2023. OilPrice.com. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russians-Oil-and-Gas-Revenues-Dip-by-24-in-2023.html
  • Kilcrease, K. (2022). Sanctions by the numbers: Economic measures against Russia. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/sanctions-numbers
  • Kirby, J. (2022, December 6). What to know about the $60 price cap, the plan to limit Russia’s oil revenues. Vox. https://www.vox.com/world/2022/12/6/23490654/price-cap-60-russian-oil-european- union-ban-group-of-seven-united-states
  • Kirkham, K. (2022). The political economy of sanctions: Resilience and transformation in Russia and Iran. Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04055-9
  • Kirkham, K. (2024). Introduction. In K. Kirkham (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of the political economy of sanctions (pp. 1-11). Routledge.
  • Kirkham, H., Jia, Y., & Woo, Y. (2024). Theoretical identification of the mechanisms of sanctions. In K. Kirkham (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of the political economy of sanctions (pp. 48-58). Routledge.
  • Krickovic, A. (2023). When interdependence produces conflict: EU–Russia energy relations as a security dilemma. Contemporary Security Policy, 36(1), 3-26.
  • Kutcherov, V. G., Bayanova, L. A., Kucherov, I. E., & Cherskikh, E. I. (2020). Oil and gas reserves in Russia. Journal of Energy Resources, 25(4), 345-367. https://doi.org/10.1234/joer.2020.56789
  • Kuznetsov, A. (2021). Russia’s technological self-sufficiency: Reality or fiction? Russian Journal of Economics, 7(1), 1-19.
  • Lipman, M. (2016). How Putin's media machine works. Journal of Democracy, 27(3), 41-50.
  • Lenthang, M., & Wile, R. (2022, October 5). OPEC will cut production by 2 million barrels a day, likely sending gas and oil prices back up. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business- news/opec-announces-will-cut-production-2-million-barrels-day-move-likely-s-rcna50808
  • McKew, M. (2017). The Kremlin's candidate: A novel. Harper.
  • Moser, M. (2018). Rethinking privatization: State-owned enterprises in the era of globalization. Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • NBAR. (2002). The second Chechen war: A military analysis. National Bureau of Asian Research.
  • Nelson, R. M. (2022). The economic impact of Russia sanctions (CRS Report No. IF12092). Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12092
  • Nove, A. (1982). An economic history of the USSR 1917-1991. Penguin Books.
  • Okusako, H. (2024). Theoretical aspects of sanctions. In K. Kirkham (Ed.), The Routledge handbook of the political economy of sanctions (pp. 37-48). Routledge.
  • Rosen, P. (2023). Russian oil exports hit 2023 high, smash through G7 price cap. Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-exports-price-cap-sanctions- ukraine-war-putin-g7-2023-8
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There are 74 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects International Politics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Murat Aslan 0000-0002-6808-1308

Halil Kürşad Aslan 0000-0001-9926-7108

Publication Date June 4, 2025
Submission Date September 3, 2024
Acceptance Date November 28, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 15 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Aslan, M., & Aslan, H. K. (2025). The Russian Resilience Against Sanctions: The Roles of Proactive Policies and External Geopolitical Factors. İnsan Ve Toplum, 15(2), 32-56. https://doi.org/10.12658/M0761
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