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Does a Contractionary Monetary Policy in Turkey Stabilise Food Inflation?

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 218 - 237, 14.02.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of the monetary policy in Turkey on domestic food inflation. We statistically show that contractionary monetary policies produce positive asymmetric impacts and destabilise food inflation. This result shows that the cost channel of the monetary transmission mechanism prevails over the demand channel of the monetary transmission mechanism. We also provide empirical evidence that an increase in energy and world food prices also drives domestic food inflation. These results are robust with respect to employing different control variables, the estimation of the model with different data sets, and the structural breaks that occurred during the study period.

JEL Classification : E30 , E31 , E52

Keywords

Monetary policy cost channel demand channel food inflation quantile regressi

References

  • Akram, Q.F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. EnergY Economics, 31, 838-851. google scholar
  • Algan, N., İşcan, E., & Serin, D. (2021). Petrol fiyatının gıda fiyatları üzerine asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Çukurova ÜniversitesiSosyaI Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 30(l), 11-21. google scholar
  • Alper, F. Ö. (2018). Petroleum prices, food prices and inflation relationship: findings of structural VAR Analysis. Electronic Turkish Studies, 13(22), 63-74. google scholar
  • Altıntaş, H. (2016). Petrol fiyatlarının gıda fiyatlarına asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye için NARDL Modeli uygulaması. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 14(4), 1-24 google scholar
  • Anand, R., & Prasad, E.S. (2010). Optimal price indices for targeting inflation under incomplete markets. Working Paper 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Anand, R., Prasad, E.S., & Zhang, B. (2015). What measure of inflation shouLd a deveLoping countrY centraL bank target?. Journal of Monetaıy Economics, 74, 102-116. google scholar
  • Baek, J., & Koo, W. W. (2010). AnaLyzing factors affecting U.S. food price inflation. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 58,303-320. google scholar
  • Baffes J., & Dennis, A. (2013). Long-term drivers of food prices. PoLicy Research Working Paper 6455, WorLd Bank. google scholar
  • Barnett, W. A., BhadurY, S. S., & Ghosh, T. (2016). An SVAR approach to evaLuation of monetarY poLicY in India: SoLution to the exchange rate puzzLes in an open economy. Open Economies Review, 27(5), 871-893. google scholar
  • BayramoğLu, A., & Yurtkur, A. K. (2015). Türkiye'de gıda ve tarımsaL ürün fiyatLarını uLusLararası beLirLeyiciLeri. Anadolu Üniversitesi SosYal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 63-73. google scholar
  • Bhattacharya, R., & Gupta, A.S. (2018). Drivers and impact of food inflation in India, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 11(2), 146-168. google scholar
  • Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R., (2020). Can monetary poLicy stabiLise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Economic Modelling, 89(2020), 122-141. google scholar
  • Bj0rnLand, H. C. (2009). Monetary poLicy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after aLL. Journal of International Economics, 79, 64-77. google scholar
  • Bouakez, H., & Normandin, M. (2010). FLuctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary poLicy shocks. Journal of International Economics, 8l(l),139-153. google scholar
  • Chowdhury, I., Hoffmann, M., & Schabert, A. (2006). Inflation dynamics and the cost channeL of monetary transmission. European Economic Review, 50 (4), 995-1016. google scholar
  • CipLak, U., & YuceL, E. M. (2004). Trade protection measures, agricuLturaL and food prices, TCMB, (No. 0401) google scholar
  • CLemente, J., Montanes, A., & Reyes, M. (1998). Testing for a unit root in variabLes with a doubLe change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59 (2), 175-182. google scholar
  • Dickey, D.A., & FuLLer, W.A. (1981). LikeLihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. google scholar
  • FrankeL, J.A. (2008). The effect of monetary poLicy on reaL commodity prices. A Book Chapter in the VoLume: Asset Prices and Monetary PoLicy. University of Chicago Press. 291-333. google scholar
  • Gaiotti, E., & Secchi, A. (2006). Is there a cost channeL of monetary poLicy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behavior of 2,000 firms. Journal of MoneY, Credit and Banking, 38(8), 2013-2037. google scholar
  • Gregorio, J.D. (2012). Commodity prices, monetary poLicy and inflation. Working Paper 359. University of ChiLe. google scholar
  • Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D.K., & Sousa, R.M. (2015). US monetary poLicy and sectoraL commodity prices. Journal of International MoneY and Finance, 57, 61-85. google scholar
  • Harri, A., NaLLey, L., & Hudson, D. (2009). The reLationship between oiL, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41, 501-510. google scholar
  • HenzeL, S., HüLsewig, O., Mayer, E., & WoLLmershauser, T. (2009). The price puzzLe revisited: Can the cost channeL expLain a rise in inflation after a monetary poLicy shock?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31(2), 268-289. google scholar
  • Iddrisu, A.A.,& ALagidede, P.I. (2020), Monetary poLicy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantiLe regression anaLysis. Food Policy, 91, 101816. google scholar
  • Isik, S., & Özbuğday, F. C. (2021). The impact of agricuLturaL input costs on food prices in Turkey: a case study. Agricultural Economics, 2021, 67(3), 101-110. google scholar
  • KartaL, M. T., & Depren, Ö. (2023). Asymmetric reLationship between gLobaL and nationaL factors and domestic food prices: evidence from Turkey with noveL nonLinear approaches. Financial Innovation, 9(1), 11. google scholar
  • Kim, S., & Lim, K. (2018). Effects of monetary poLicy shocks on exchange rate in smaLL open economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 324-339. google scholar
  • Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2000). Exchange rate anomaLies in the industriaL countries: A soLution with a structuraL VAR approach. Journal of Monetaıy Economics, 45, 561-586. google scholar
  • KirikkaLeLi D., & Darbaz I. (2021). The causaL Linkage between energy price and food price. Energies, 14(14), 4182. google scholar
  • Koenker, R. (2005). QuantiLe Regression. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Kwon, D., & Koo, W. W. (2009). Price transmission channeLs of energy and exchange rate on food sector: A disaggregated approach based on stage of process. In the AgricuLturaL & AppLied Economics Association 2009 AAEA & ACCI joint annuaL meeting MiLwaukee, Wisconsin, 26-29 JuLy 2009. google scholar
  • Moorthy, V., & KoLhar, S. (2011). Rising food inflation and India's monetary poLicy. Indian Growth and Development Review, 4(1), 73-94. google scholar
  • NeweY, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A simpLe, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorreLation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703-708. google scholar
  • PaL, D., & Mitra, S.K. (2019). CorreLation dYnamics of crude oiL with agricuLturaL commodities: a comparison between energY and food crops. Economic Modelling, 82, 453-466. google scholar
  • Peersman, G., & Smets, F. (2001). The monetarY transmission mechanism in the Euro Area: More evidence from VAR anaLYsis. Working Paper No:91, European CentraL Park. google scholar
  • PhiLLips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346. google scholar
  • RangasamY, L. (2011). Food inflation in South Africa: some impLications for economic poLicY. South African Journal of Economics, 79 (2), 184-201. google scholar
  • Reboredo, J. C., & Ugando, M. (2014) US doLLar exchange rate and food price dependence: ImpLications for portfoLio risk management. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 30, 72-89. google scholar
  • SaLisu A.A., Isah, K.O., OyewoLe, O.J., & Akanni, L.O. (2017). ModeLLing oiL price-inflation nexus: the role of asymmetries. Energy, 125, 97-106. google scholar
  • Scrimgeour, D. (2014). CommoditY price responses to monetarY poLicY surprises. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97 (1), 88-102. google scholar
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), 2024. Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi, Eylül 2024. [Access: 09.08.2024, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/BuLten/Index?p= Tuketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-EyLuL-2024-53618&diL=l] google scholar
  • Yıldırım, M. O. (2021). Drivers of food prices: new evidence from Turkey. StatistiKa:Statistics & EconomyJournal, 101(3), 312-329. google scholar
  • Zhang C., & Qu, X. (2015). The Effect of gLobaL oiL price shocks on China's agricuLturaL commodities. Energy Economics, 51, 354-364. google scholar

Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 218 - 237, 14.02.2025

Oğuz Tümtürk

https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de uygulanan para politikasının gıda enflasyonu üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre, sıkılaştırıcı para politikası asimetrik pozitif tepkiler meydana getirmekte ve gıda enflasy6 onu üzerinde istikrar bozucu etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu durum, para politikasının parasal aktarım mekanizmasının maliyet kanalının etkinliğinin, talep kanalına göre daha yüksek olması ile açıklanabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, enerji ve dünya gıda fiyatlarında meydana gelen değişimlerin, ulusal gıda fiyatlarını arttırdığı gözlenmektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar, farklı kontrol değişkeni kullanılmasına, modelin farklı veri setleri ile tahminine ve dönem içinde gerçekleşen yapısal kırılmalara karşı da oldukça tutarlıdır.

JEL Classification : E30 , E31 , E52

Keywords

Para politikası maliyet kanalı talep kanalı gıda enflasyonu kantil regresyon

References

  • Akram, Q.F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. EnergY Economics, 31, 838-851. google scholar
  • Algan, N., İşcan, E., & Serin, D. (2021). Petrol fiyatının gıda fiyatları üzerine asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Çukurova ÜniversitesiSosyaI Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 30(l), 11-21. google scholar
  • Alper, F. Ö. (2018). Petroleum prices, food prices and inflation relationship: findings of structural VAR Analysis. Electronic Turkish Studies, 13(22), 63-74. google scholar
  • Altıntaş, H. (2016). Petrol fiyatlarının gıda fiyatlarına asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye için NARDL Modeli uygulaması. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 14(4), 1-24 google scholar
  • Anand, R., & Prasad, E.S. (2010). Optimal price indices for targeting inflation under incomplete markets. Working Paper 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research. google scholar
  • Anand, R., Prasad, E.S., & Zhang, B. (2015). What measure of inflation shouLd a deveLoping countrY centraL bank target?. Journal of Monetaıy Economics, 74, 102-116. google scholar
  • Baek, J., & Koo, W. W. (2010). AnaLyzing factors affecting U.S. food price inflation. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 58,303-320. google scholar
  • Baffes J., & Dennis, A. (2013). Long-term drivers of food prices. PoLicy Research Working Paper 6455, WorLd Bank. google scholar
  • Barnett, W. A., BhadurY, S. S., & Ghosh, T. (2016). An SVAR approach to evaLuation of monetarY poLicY in India: SoLution to the exchange rate puzzLes in an open economy. Open Economies Review, 27(5), 871-893. google scholar
  • BayramoğLu, A., & Yurtkur, A. K. (2015). Türkiye'de gıda ve tarımsaL ürün fiyatLarını uLusLararası beLirLeyiciLeri. Anadolu Üniversitesi SosYal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(2), 63-73. google scholar
  • Bhattacharya, R., & Gupta, A.S. (2018). Drivers and impact of food inflation in India, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 11(2), 146-168. google scholar
  • Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R., (2020). Can monetary poLicy stabiLise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Economic Modelling, 89(2020), 122-141. google scholar
  • Bj0rnLand, H. C. (2009). Monetary poLicy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after aLL. Journal of International Economics, 79, 64-77. google scholar
  • Bouakez, H., & Normandin, M. (2010). FLuctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary poLicy shocks. Journal of International Economics, 8l(l),139-153. google scholar
  • Chowdhury, I., Hoffmann, M., & Schabert, A. (2006). Inflation dynamics and the cost channeL of monetary transmission. European Economic Review, 50 (4), 995-1016. google scholar
  • CipLak, U., & YuceL, E. M. (2004). Trade protection measures, agricuLturaL and food prices, TCMB, (No. 0401) google scholar
  • CLemente, J., Montanes, A., & Reyes, M. (1998). Testing for a unit root in variabLes with a doubLe change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59 (2), 175-182. google scholar
  • Dickey, D.A., & FuLLer, W.A. (1981). LikeLihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. google scholar
  • FrankeL, J.A. (2008). The effect of monetary poLicy on reaL commodity prices. A Book Chapter in the VoLume: Asset Prices and Monetary PoLicy. University of Chicago Press. 291-333. google scholar
  • Gaiotti, E., & Secchi, A. (2006). Is there a cost channeL of monetary poLicy transmission? An investigation into the pricing behavior of 2,000 firms. Journal of MoneY, Credit and Banking, 38(8), 2013-2037. google scholar
  • Gregorio, J.D. (2012). Commodity prices, monetary poLicy and inflation. Working Paper 359. University of ChiLe. google scholar
  • Hammoudeh, S., Nguyen, D.K., & Sousa, R.M. (2015). US monetary poLicy and sectoraL commodity prices. Journal of International MoneY and Finance, 57, 61-85. google scholar
  • Harri, A., NaLLey, L., & Hudson, D. (2009). The reLationship between oiL, exchange rates, and commodity prices. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41, 501-510. google scholar
  • HenzeL, S., HüLsewig, O., Mayer, E., & WoLLmershauser, T. (2009). The price puzzLe revisited: Can the cost channeL expLain a rise in inflation after a monetary poLicy shock?. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31(2), 268-289. google scholar
  • Iddrisu, A.A.,& ALagidede, P.I. (2020), Monetary poLicy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantiLe regression anaLysis. Food Policy, 91, 101816. google scholar
  • Isik, S., & Özbuğday, F. C. (2021). The impact of agricuLturaL input costs on food prices in Turkey: a case study. Agricultural Economics, 2021, 67(3), 101-110. google scholar
  • KartaL, M. T., & Depren, Ö. (2023). Asymmetric reLationship between gLobaL and nationaL factors and domestic food prices: evidence from Turkey with noveL nonLinear approaches. Financial Innovation, 9(1), 11. google scholar
  • Kim, S., & Lim, K. (2018). Effects of monetary poLicy shocks on exchange rate in smaLL open economies. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, 324-339. google scholar
  • Kim, S., & Roubini, N. (2000). Exchange rate anomaLies in the industriaL countries: A soLution with a structuraL VAR approach. Journal of Monetaıy Economics, 45, 561-586. google scholar
  • KirikkaLeLi D., & Darbaz I. (2021). The causaL Linkage between energy price and food price. Energies, 14(14), 4182. google scholar
  • Koenker, R. (2005). QuantiLe Regression. New York: Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Kwon, D., & Koo, W. W. (2009). Price transmission channeLs of energy and exchange rate on food sector: A disaggregated approach based on stage of process. In the AgricuLturaL & AppLied Economics Association 2009 AAEA & ACCI joint annuaL meeting MiLwaukee, Wisconsin, 26-29 JuLy 2009. google scholar
  • Moorthy, V., & KoLhar, S. (2011). Rising food inflation and India's monetary poLicy. Indian Growth and Development Review, 4(1), 73-94. google scholar
  • NeweY, W. K., & West, K. D. (1987). A simpLe, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorreLation consistent covariance matrix. Econometrica, 55, 703-708. google scholar
  • PaL, D., & Mitra, S.K. (2019). CorreLation dYnamics of crude oiL with agricuLturaL commodities: a comparison between energY and food crops. Economic Modelling, 82, 453-466. google scholar
  • Peersman, G., & Smets, F. (2001). The monetarY transmission mechanism in the Euro Area: More evidence from VAR anaLYsis. Working Paper No:91, European CentraL Park. google scholar
  • PhiLLips, P.C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346. google scholar
  • RangasamY, L. (2011). Food inflation in South Africa: some impLications for economic poLicY. South African Journal of Economics, 79 (2), 184-201. google scholar
  • Reboredo, J. C., & Ugando, M. (2014) US doLLar exchange rate and food price dependence: ImpLications for portfoLio risk management. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 30, 72-89. google scholar
  • SaLisu A.A., Isah, K.O., OyewoLe, O.J., & Akanni, L.O. (2017). ModeLLing oiL price-inflation nexus: the role of asymmetries. Energy, 125, 97-106. google scholar
  • Scrimgeour, D. (2014). CommoditY price responses to monetarY poLicY surprises. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97 (1), 88-102. google scholar
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), 2024. Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi, Eylül 2024. [Access: 09.08.2024, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/BuLten/Index?p= Tuketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-EyLuL-2024-53618&diL=l] google scholar
  • Yıldırım, M. O. (2021). Drivers of food prices: new evidence from Turkey. StatistiKa:Statistics & EconomyJournal, 101(3), 312-329. google scholar
  • Zhang C., & Qu, X. (2015). The Effect of gLobaL oiL price shocks on China's agricuLturaL commodities. Energy Economics, 51, 354-364. google scholar
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other)
Journal Section RESEARCH ARTICLE
Authors

Oğuz Tümtürk 0000-0002-1935-0858

Publication Date February 14, 2025
Submission Date November 13, 2024
Acceptance Date January 25, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Tümtürk, O. (2025). Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(1), 218-237. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231
AMA Tümtürk O. Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?. JEPR. February 2025;12(1):218-237. doi:10.26650/JEPR1584231
Chicago Tümtürk, Oğuz. “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 12, no. 1 (February 2025): 218-37. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231.
EndNote Tümtürk O (February 1, 2025) Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 12 1 218–237.
IEEE O. Tümtürk, “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?”, JEPR, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 218–237, 2025, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1584231.
ISNAD Tümtürk, Oğuz. “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi 12/1 (February 2025), 218-237. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1584231.
JAMA Tümtürk O. Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?. JEPR. 2025;12:218–237.
MLA Tümtürk, Oğuz. “Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?”. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 1, 2025, pp. 218-37, doi:10.26650/JEPR1584231.
Vancouver Tümtürk O. Türkiye’de Uygulanan Sıkılaştırıcı Para Politikası Gıda Enflasyonu Üzerinde İstikrar Sağlar mı?. JEPR. 2025;12(1):218-37.
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