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Su Kalitesi Parametreleri için Mann-Kendall ve Yenilikçi Trend Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 11 - 27, 30.06.2025

Ramazan Acar

https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1521101

Abstract

Günümüzde farklı veri setleri (su kalitesi, akım, yağış, sıcaklık vb.) ile eğilimlerin tespit edilmesi için pek çok yöntem mevcuttur. Bu çalışmada trend analizi çalışmalarında yaygın bir şekilde kullanılan Mann-Kendall (MK) test istatistiği ile Spearman Rho test istatistiği ve son yıllarda popüler hale gelmiş olan Şen’in yenilikçi trend yöntemi (ITA), Yenilikçi eğilim çözümlemesi için geliştirilmiş görselleştirme (IV-ITA) yöntemlerinin performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla Akdeniz Bölgesi’nde yer alan Ceyhan Nehri’ne ait 20-06-00-001 numaralı istasyonundan alınan 1986-2013 su yıllarına ait yıllık ortalama ve mevsimlik ortalama 8 adet su kalitesi parametresi kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle her bir parametrenin değerleri YSKYY’nde verilen su kalite değerleriyle karşılaştırılmış ve her bir parametreye göre su kalitesi sınıfları belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra her mevsim kendi içinde ve yıllık ortalama değerlerin trendleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Bu nedenle 5 farklı trend testinin karşılaştırılması yapılmıştır. Ancak sırasıyla yapılmış olan homojenlik ve otoregresif korelasyon testi işlemlerine göre hem %95 güven aralığında homojen olmayan hem de korelasyon değeri 0.30’un üzerinde kalan bazı veriler kıyaslamada kullanılmamıştır. Makalede elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde farklı analizlerin birlikte yapılarak kullanılması testlerdeki yanılma payını azaltacağı kanısına varılmıştır.

Keywords

Su Kalitesi Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi için Geliştirilmiş Görselleştirme Yenilikçi Trend Testi Korelasyon Spearman Rho

References

  • Acar, R. (2024). Evaluation of susurluk basin flows using trend analysis methods. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, 3(1), 65-74.
  • Aditya, F., Gusmayanti, E., & Sudrajat, J. (2021). Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan. In IOP conference series: earth and environmental science, 893(1), 012006.
  • Ahmad, I., Tang, D., Wang, T., Wang, M., & Wagan, B. (2015). Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann‐Kendall and Spearman’s rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, 2015(1), 431860.
  • Akkoyunlu, A., & Akiner, M. (2012). Pollution evaluation in streams using water quality indices: A case study from Turkey's Sapanca Lake Basin. Ecological Indicators, 18, 501-511.
  • Aksakal, A., & Gündoğay, A. (2022). Determınatıon Of Column Curvature Ductılıty By Multıple Regressıon Analysıs. In Ist-International Congress on Modern Sciences Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 395, 403.
  • Albek, E. (2002). Stical Analysis of Water Quality Trends: An Application to the Porsuk Stream.
  • Ashraf, M., Ahmad, I., Khan, N., Zhang, F., Bilal, A., & Guo, J. (2021). Streamflow variations in monthly, seasonal, annual and extreme values using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and innovative trend analysis. Water Resources Management, 35, 243-261.
  • Brown, R., McClelland, N., Deininger, R., & Tozer, R. (1970). A water quality index-do we dare. Water and sewage works, 117(10).
  • Burgan, H., İçağa, Y., Bostanoğlu, Y., & Kilit, M. (2013). Akarçay Akarsuyu 2006-2011 dönemi su kalite eğilimi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 19(3), 2006-2011.
  • Cude, C. (2001). Oregon water quality index a tool for evaluating water quality management effectiveness. AWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association,, 37(1), 125-137.
  • Elçi, Ş., & Selçuk, P. (2013). Effects of basin activities and land use on water quality trends in Tahtali Basin, Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 68, 1591-1598.
  • Environment, C. (2001a). Canadian water quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life: CCME Water Quality Index 1.0,User’s Manual. In: Canadian Environmental Quality Guide-lines,1999. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Winnipeg.
  • Environment, C. (2001b). Canadian water quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life: CCME Water Quality Index 1.0,User’s Manual. In: Canadian Environmental Quality Guidelines,1999. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Winnipeg.
  • Gadedjisso-Tossou, A., Adjegan, K., & Kablan, A. (2021). Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci, 3(1), 17.
  • Gumus, V., Avsaroglu, Y., & Simsek, O. (2022). Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science, 131(1), 34.
  • Güçlü, Y. (2020). Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124674.
  • Kahya, E., & Kalaycı, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144.
  • Kalaycı, S., & Kahya, E. (1998). Detection of water quality trends in the rivers of the Susurluk basin.
  • Kendall, M. (1948). Rank correlation methods.
  • Keskin, M., Çakto, İ., Çetin, V., & Bektaş, O. (2018). DOĞU ANADOLU BÖLGESİ SICAKLIK VE YAĞIŞ TREND ANALİZİ. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 6(2), 294-300.
  • Kır, E., & Saplıoğlu, K. (2019). Isparta–Antalya Bölgesi’ndeki Yüzeysel Suların Kalitesinin İncelenmesi. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 4(1), 9-16.
  • Kisi, O., & Ay, M. (2014). Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • Korkmaz, M. (2022). Statistical and Trend Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall in Ayvalık. International Journal of Technology and Emerging Sciences (IJTES), 2(04), 34-9.
  • Kurunç, A., Yurekli, K., & Yutseven, E. (2005). Determination of sudden changes in time series of Yesilirmak River-Durucasu water quality records. Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(1), 122-126.
  • Lehmann, E., & D'Abrera, H. (2006). Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks. New York: Springer., 464. Mann, H. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: . Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
  • Mupangwa, W., Chipindu, L., Ncube, B., Mkuhlani, S., Nhantumbo, N., Masvaya, E., & Liben, F. (2023). Temporal changes in minimum and maximum temperatures at selected locations of southern Africa. Climate, 11(4), 84.
  • Rahman, M., Yunsheng, L., & Sultana, N. (2017). Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 129(4), 409-424.
  • Saplioglu, K., Kilit, M., & Şenel, F. (2019). Investigation of changes in climate data using checkerboard: the case of Akarçay basin. Applied Ecology & Environmental Research, 17(2).
  • Saplıoğlu, K. (2024). Mann-Kendall Trend Testi ile Yenilikçi Yöntemlerin Kıyaslanması: Beşkonak Aylık Akım Verileri Örneği. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(1), 1-12.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Dahir, A. (2018). Somaliland Bölgesi (Somali) Yağışlarının Trend Analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(1), 48-62.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Güçlü, Y. (2022). Combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data. Journal of Hydrology, 612, 128132.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M., & Yavuz, B. (2014). Trend analysis of streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1), 313-327.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Küçükerdem, T., & Alqaysi, R. (2017). Akdeniz Bölgesi akarsularının su kalitesi sınıflarının ve trendlerinin belirlenmesi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 8(1), 33-42.
  • Shadmani, M., Marofi, S., & Roknian, M. (2012). Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran. Water resources management, 26, 211-224.
  • Spearman, C. (1961). The proof and measurement of association between two things.
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • Topal, M. (2015). Caro Deresi (Elazığ)’nin Fizikokimyasal Parametreler Açısından Su Kalitesinin Belirlenmesi. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(1), 43-53.
  • Topal, M., & Topal, E. (2016). Murat Nehri (Elazığ)’nin Bazı Fizikokimyasal Parametreler Açısından Su Kalitesinin Belirlenmesi. In International Symposium of Water and Wastewater Management.
  • YSKYY. (2023). erüstü Su Kalitesi Yönetmeliği, 01.02.2023 Tarih ve 32091 Sayılı Resmi Gazete.
  • Zeydan, Ö., Özdoğan, N., Taştepe, P., & Demirtaş, D. (2019). Kozlu deresinde (Zonguldak) su kalitesinin incelenmesi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 5(2), 187-197.

Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Innovative Trend Method for Water Quality Parameters

Year 2025, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 11 - 27, 30.06.2025

Ramazan Acar

https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1521101

Abstract

In the present era, there exists a plethora of methodologies for the detection of trends with disparate data sets, including but not limited to those pertaining to water quality, flow, precipitation, and temperature. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Mann-Kendall (MK) test statistic and Spearman’s Rho (SR) test statistic, commonly used in trend analysis studies; Şen's innovative trend method (ITA), which has gained prominence in recent years; and the visualization methods designed for innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA). To this end, eight annual and seasonal average water quality parameters of the Ceyhan River, situated in the Mediterranean region, were obtained from station 20-06-00-001 for the water years 1986–2013. Firstly, the values of each parameter were compared with the water quality values given in the SWQMR, and water quality classes were determined according to each parameter. Accordingly, five distinct trend tests were evaluated. However, following the completion of homogeneity and autoregressive correlation tests, data that did not meet the criteria for homogeneity at the 95% confidence interval and exhibited a correlation value above 0.30 were excluded from the comparison. The article's analysis concludes that the integration of diverse analytical approaches may enhance the precision of the tests.

Keywords

Water Quality Enhanced Visualization for Innovative Trend Analysis Innovative Trend Test Correlation Spearman Rho

References

  • Acar, R. (2024). Evaluation of susurluk basin flows using trend analysis methods. Firat University Journal of Experimental and Computational Engineering, 3(1), 65-74.
  • Aditya, F., Gusmayanti, E., & Sudrajat, J. (2021). Rainfall trend analysis using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test in West Kalimantan. In IOP conference series: earth and environmental science, 893(1), 012006.
  • Ahmad, I., Tang, D., Wang, T., Wang, M., & Wagan, B. (2015). Precipitation Trends over Time Using Mann‐Kendall and Spearman’s rho Tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology, 2015(1), 431860.
  • Akkoyunlu, A., & Akiner, M. (2012). Pollution evaluation in streams using water quality indices: A case study from Turkey's Sapanca Lake Basin. Ecological Indicators, 18, 501-511.
  • Aksakal, A., & Gündoğay, A. (2022). Determınatıon Of Column Curvature Ductılıty By Multıple Regressıon Analysıs. In Ist-International Congress on Modern Sciences Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 395, 403.
  • Albek, E. (2002). Stical Analysis of Water Quality Trends: An Application to the Porsuk Stream.
  • Ashraf, M., Ahmad, I., Khan, N., Zhang, F., Bilal, A., & Guo, J. (2021). Streamflow variations in monthly, seasonal, annual and extreme values using Mann-Kendall, Spearmen’s Rho and innovative trend analysis. Water Resources Management, 35, 243-261.
  • Brown, R., McClelland, N., Deininger, R., & Tozer, R. (1970). A water quality index-do we dare. Water and sewage works, 117(10).
  • Burgan, H., İçağa, Y., Bostanoğlu, Y., & Kilit, M. (2013). Akarçay Akarsuyu 2006-2011 dönemi su kalite eğilimi. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, 19(3), 2006-2011.
  • Cude, C. (2001). Oregon water quality index a tool for evaluating water quality management effectiveness. AWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association,, 37(1), 125-137.
  • Elçi, Ş., & Selçuk, P. (2013). Effects of basin activities and land use on water quality trends in Tahtali Basin, Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 68, 1591-1598.
  • Environment, C. (2001a). Canadian water quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life: CCME Water Quality Index 1.0,User’s Manual. In: Canadian Environmental Quality Guide-lines,1999. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Winnipeg.
  • Environment, C. (2001b). Canadian water quality guidelines for the protection of aquatic life: CCME Water Quality Index 1.0,User’s Manual. In: Canadian Environmental Quality Guidelines,1999. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, Winnipeg.
  • Gadedjisso-Tossou, A., Adjegan, K., & Kablan, A. (2021). Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for Rainfed Cereal Yields in Northern Togo. Sci, 3(1), 17.
  • Gumus, V., Avsaroglu, Y., & Simsek, O. (2022). Streamflow trends in the Tigris river basin using Mann− Kendall and innovative trend analysis methods. Journal of Earth System Science, 131(1), 34.
  • Güçlü, Y. (2020). Improved visualization for trend analysis by comparing with classical Mann-Kendall test and ITA. Journal of Hydrology, 584, 124674.
  • Kahya, E., & Kalaycı, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of hydrology, 289(1-4), 128-144.
  • Kalaycı, S., & Kahya, E. (1998). Detection of water quality trends in the rivers of the Susurluk basin.
  • Kendall, M. (1948). Rank correlation methods.
  • Keskin, M., Çakto, İ., Çetin, V., & Bektaş, O. (2018). DOĞU ANADOLU BÖLGESİ SICAKLIK VE YAĞIŞ TREND ANALİZİ. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 6(2), 294-300.
  • Kır, E., & Saplıoğlu, K. (2019). Isparta–Antalya Bölgesi’ndeki Yüzeysel Suların Kalitesinin İncelenmesi. İklim Değişikliği ve Çevre, 4(1), 9-16.
  • Kisi, O., & Ay, M. (2014). Comparison of Mann–Kendall and innovative trend method for water quality parameters of the Kizilirmak River, Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 513, 362-375.
  • Korkmaz, M. (2022). Statistical and Trend Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall in Ayvalık. International Journal of Technology and Emerging Sciences (IJTES), 2(04), 34-9.
  • Kurunç, A., Yurekli, K., & Yutseven, E. (2005). Determination of sudden changes in time series of Yesilirmak River-Durucasu water quality records. Journal of Applied Sciences, 5(1), 122-126.
  • Lehmann, E., & D'Abrera, H. (2006). Nonparametrics: statistical methods based on ranks. New York: Springer., 464. Mann, H. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: . Journal of the econometric society, 245-259.
  • Mupangwa, W., Chipindu, L., Ncube, B., Mkuhlani, S., Nhantumbo, N., Masvaya, E., & Liben, F. (2023). Temporal changes in minimum and maximum temperatures at selected locations of southern Africa. Climate, 11(4), 84.
  • Rahman, M., Yunsheng, L., & Sultana, N. (2017). Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall, Spearman’s rho tests and ARIMA model. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 129(4), 409-424.
  • Saplioglu, K., Kilit, M., & Şenel, F. (2019). Investigation of changes in climate data using checkerboard: the case of Akarçay basin. Applied Ecology & Environmental Research, 17(2).
  • Saplıoğlu, K. (2024). Mann-Kendall Trend Testi ile Yenilikçi Yöntemlerin Kıyaslanması: Beşkonak Aylık Akım Verileri Örneği. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology, 6(1), 1-12.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Dahir, A. (2018). Somaliland Bölgesi (Somali) Yağışlarının Trend Analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 8(1), 48-62.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., & Güçlü, Y. (2022). Combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram for trend analysis of hydrological data. Journal of Hydrology, 612, 128132.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M., & Yavuz, B. (2014). Trend analysis of streams in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 23(1), 313-327.
  • Saplıoğlu, K., Küçükerdem, T., & Alqaysi, R. (2017). Akdeniz Bölgesi akarsularının su kalitesi sınıflarının ve trendlerinin belirlenmesi. Dicle Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Mühendislik Dergisi, 8(1), 33-42.
  • Shadmani, M., Marofi, S., & Roknian, M. (2012). Trend analysis in reference evapotranspiration using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho tests in arid regions of Iran. Water resources management, 26, 211-224.
  • Spearman, C. (1961). The proof and measurement of association between two things.
  • Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9), 1042-1046.
  • Topal, M. (2015). Caro Deresi (Elazığ)’nin Fizikokimyasal Parametreler Açısından Su Kalitesinin Belirlenmesi. Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(1), 43-53.
  • Topal, M., & Topal, E. (2016). Murat Nehri (Elazığ)’nin Bazı Fizikokimyasal Parametreler Açısından Su Kalitesinin Belirlenmesi. In International Symposium of Water and Wastewater Management.
  • YSKYY. (2023). erüstü Su Kalitesi Yönetmeliği, 01.02.2023 Tarih ve 32091 Sayılı Resmi Gazete.
  • Zeydan, Ö., Özdoğan, N., Taştepe, P., & Demirtaş, D. (2019). Kozlu deresinde (Zonguldak) su kalitesinin incelenmesi. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 5(2), 187-197.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Water Resources and Water Structures
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ramazan Acar 0000-0001-5864-0076

Early Pub Date June 29, 2025
Publication Date June 30, 2025
Submission Date July 23, 2024
Acceptance Date November 18, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Acar, R. (2025). Su Kalitesi Parametreleri için Mann-Kendall ve Yenilikçi Trend Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması. Journal of Innovations in Civil Engineering and Technology, 7(1), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.60093/jiciviltech.1521101
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