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TÜRKİYE’NİN SINIRÖTESİ TERÖR KARŞITI OPERASYONLARININ IRAK’IN İSTİKRARINA ETKİSİNİN MEKANSAL ANALİZİ: 2004-2023

Year 2025, Volume: 16 Issue: 31, 144 - 167, 27.06.2025

Mehmet Şahin , Ömer Faruk Kocatepe

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2025.006

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye'nin Irak'a yönelik sınır ötesi operasyonlarının, özellikle kuzey bölgesini istikrarsızlaştırma potansiyeli üzerindeki mekansal etkisini Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) kullanarak incelemektir. Türkiye'nin operasyonları, hem siyasi söylemde hem de akademik literatürde sıklıkla eleştirilmekte ve Irak'ın en istikrarlı bölgeleri olarak kabul edilen kuzey illerinin istikrarını bozduğu iddia edilmektedir. Bu iddiayı araştırmak için, çalışma, Irak illerindeki saldırı yoğunluğunun mekânsal dağılımını değerlendirmek için Global Moran's I* ve Getis-Ord Genel G analizlerini kullanmaktadır. İncelenen dönem, işgal sonrası dönemdir. Şiddet dinamiklerini daha derinlemesine incelemek için, analizler genel olarak saldırı modellerindeki önemli değişikliklere dayanarak üç alt döneme ayrılacaktır: 2004-2012, 2013-2017 ve 2018-2023. Ayrıca, sonuçların güvenilirliğini sağlamak için analizler, Türkiye'nin müdahil olduğu verilerle ve olmadan gerçekleştirilecektir. Bulguların sağlamlığını artırmak için, karşılaştırmalı analizler, Türkiye'nin askeri müdahaleleri hakkındaki veriler dâhil edilerek ve edilmeden gerçekleştirilecektir. Bu çalışmanın sonuçları, Ortadoğu'da sınır ötesi operasyonlar ile bölgesel istikrar arasındaki karmaşık ilişki hakkında değerli bilgiler sağlayacaktır. Araştırmada Türkiye'nin operasyonlarının Kuzey Irak'taki şiddetin mekansal dağılımını istatistiksel olarak etkilemediği sonucu ortaya çıkmıştır.

Keywords

Mekânsal Analiz Türkiye’nin Operasyonları Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri

References

  • Akutay, S. S., & Ateş, D. (2013). Türkiye'nin Sınır Ötesi Operasyonlarının Hukuki Çerçevesi. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(3), 109–146.
  • Altunışık, M. B. (2006). Turkey's Iraq Policy: The War and Beyond. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 14(2), 183–196. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782800600892242
  • Amara, J., & McNab, R. M. (2010). Is Iraq Different? An Examination of Whether Civilian Fatalities Adhere to the “Law of War” in the 2003–2008 Iraq Conflict. Defense & Security Analysis, 26(1), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751791003658586
  • Aspell, T. (2005). Kurds Enjoy Haven of Peace, Prosperity. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7230132 Ayers, N. (2008). Ghost Martyrs in Iraq: An Assessment of the Applicability of Rationalist Models to Explain Suicide Attacks in Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31(9), 856–882. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802291550 Baciu, C., Ostermann, F., & Wagner, W. (2024). The Crisis of Liberal Interventionism and the Return of War. Politics and Governance, 12, Article 7865. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.7865
  • Bendern, P. de (2008, February 23). Turkey launches major land offensive into N.Iraq. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/middle-east/turkey-launches-major-land-offensive-into-niraq-idUSL22614485/
  • Cioffi-Revilla, C., & Romero, P. P. (2009). Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior: Attacks in Diyala Province, Iraq, 2002–2006. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(3), 253–276. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802627712
  • Davies, S., Engström, G., Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M. (2024). Organized Violence 1989-2023, and the Prevalence of Organized Crime Groups. Journal of Peace Research, 61(4), 673–693.
  • Geldi, M. (2020, June 20). Türkiye’nin terörle mücadelesi bazı Arap ülkelerini rahatsız etti. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/turkiye-nin-terorle-mucadelesi-bazi-arap-ulkelerini-rahatsiz-etti/1883919
  • Glavin, T. (2015). No Friends but the Mountains: The Fate of the Kurds. World Affairs, 177(6), 57–66.
  • Godfroy, J., & Collins, L. (2019). Iraq, 2003–2011: Succeeding to Fail. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 30(1), 140–175. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1552354
  • Gözen Ercan, P. (2022). R2P at Twenty: A Shared Responsibility? In P. Gözen Ercan (Ed.), The Responsibility to Protect Twenty Years On (pp. 289–301). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90731-0_14
  • Gunter, M. M. (2015). Iraq, Syria, Isis and the Kurds: Geostrategic Concerns for the U.S. and Turkey. Middle East Policy, 22(1), 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12116
  • Hafez, M. M. (2006). Suicide Terrorism in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment of the Quantitative Data and Documentary Evidence. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 29(6), 591–619. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100600790878
  • Hitchens, C. (2007). Holiday in Iraq. Vanity Fair. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/04/hitchens200704
  • Hoffman, B. (2006). Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 29(2), 103–121. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100500522173
  • Hughes, G. (2010). The Insurgencies in Iraq, 2003–2009: Origins, Developments and Prospects. Defence Studies, 10(1-2), 152–176. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702430903497783
  • Kardaş, Ş. (2021). Turkey's Military Operations in Iraq: Context and Implications. Middle East Policy, 28(3-4), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12582
  • Larrabee, F. S. (2010). Troubled partnership: U.S.-Turkish relations in an era of global geopolitical change. Rand Corporation monograph series. RAND.
  • Lipsey, D. (2016). Liberal Interventionism. The Political Quarterly, 87(3), 415–423. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12229
  • Mead, J. (2005). Game theory and the Second Iraq War. Defense & Security Analysis, 21(3), 303–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/0743017052000344955
  • Medina, R. M., Siebeneck, L. K., & Hepner, G. F. (2011). A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq 2004–2009. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 34(11), 862–882. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2011.611933
  • Mohammed, A. (2007). Big Turkey incursion in Iraq would be U.S. nightmare. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/big-turkey-incursion-in-iraq-would-be-u-s-nightmare-idUSN07204563/
  • Müftüler-Bac, M. (2006). Turkey and the United States: The Impact of the War in Iraq. International Journal: Canada's Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 61(1), 61–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/002070200606100104
  • Nyadera, I. N., & Kisaka, M. O. (2020). Contemporary conflicts, cross‐border military operations, and the declining role of the UN: The case of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Digest of Middle East Studies, 29(1), 92–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12206
  • Sadri Alibabalu, S. (2022). Turkey’s Security Policy towards Northern Syria and Iraq amid Regional Chaos (2011-2019). Bilig(102), 147–170. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10207
  • Seifert, K. R., & McCauley, C. (2014). Suicide Bombers in Iraq, 2003–2010: Disaggregating Targets Can Reveal Insurgent Motives and Priorities. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(5), 803–820. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.778198
  • Siebeneck, L. K., Medina, R. M., Yamada, I., & Hepner, G. F. (2009). Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq, 2004–2006. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(7), 591–610. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100902961789
  • START. (2022). Global Terrorism Database 1970 - 2020. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=209
  • Şahin, M. O. (2023). Türkiye’nin Irak’ın Kuzeyinde Yer Alan PKK Unsurlarına Yönelik 2015-2020 Yılları Arasında İcra Ettiği Sınır Ötesi Operasyonlar ve Sınır Güvenliğine Katkısı. SAVSAD Savunma Ve Savaş Araştırmaları Dergisi, 33(2), 405–432. https://doi.org/10.54078/savsad.1223688
  • Ucko, D. (2008). Militias, Tribes and Insurgents: The Challenge of Political Reintegration in Iraq. Conflict, Security & Development, 8(3), 341–373. https://doi.org/10.1080/14678800802358171
  • Wilcke, C. (2006). A Hard Place: The United States and the Creation of a New Security Apparatus in Iraq. Civil Wars, 8(2), 124–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240600877262
  • Yeşiltaş, M. (2020). Transformation of Turkey’s Defense Industry: Causes, Context and Consequences. Insight Turkey, 22(Summer 2020), Article https://www.insightturkey.com, 89–114. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2020223.07

A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF TÜRKİYE’S CROSS-BORDER COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS ON IRAQ’S STABILITY: 2004-2023

Year 2025, Volume: 16 Issue: 31, 144 - 167, 27.06.2025

Mehmet Şahin , Ömer Faruk Kocatepe

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2025.006

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the spatial impact of Türkiye's cross-border operations on Iraq, particularly focusing on their potential to destabilize the northern region using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Türkiye's operations are often criticized in both political discourse and academic literature, with the argument that they disrupt the stability of Iraq's northern provinces, which are considered to be among the most stable parts of the country. To investigate this claim, this study employs Global Moran's I* and Getis-Ord General G analyses to assess the spatial distribution of attack intensity across Iraqi provinces. The time period considered is the post-occupation era. To further delve into the dynamics of violence, the analysis will be divided into three sub-periods based on significant changes in attack patterns in general: 2004-2012, 2013-2017, and 2018-2023. Additionally, to ensure the reliability of the results, the analyses will be conducted both with and without data on Türkiye's involvement. To enhance the robustness of the findings, comparative analyses will be conducted both with and without incorporating data on Türkiye's military interventions. The results of this study will provide valuable insights into the complex relationship between cross-border operations and regional stability in the Middle East. The study concluded that Türkiye's operations did not statistically affect the spatial distribution of violence in North of Iraq.

Keywords

Spatial Analysis Operations of Türkiye Geographical Information Systems

References

  • Akutay, S. S., & Ateş, D. (2013). Türkiye'nin Sınır Ötesi Operasyonlarının Hukuki Çerçevesi. Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 17(3), 109–146.
  • Altunışık, M. B. (2006). Turkey's Iraq Policy: The War and Beyond. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 14(2), 183–196. https://doi.org/10.1080/14782800600892242
  • Amara, J., & McNab, R. M. (2010). Is Iraq Different? An Examination of Whether Civilian Fatalities Adhere to the “Law of War” in the 2003–2008 Iraq Conflict. Defense & Security Analysis, 26(1), 65–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/14751791003658586
  • Aspell, T. (2005). Kurds Enjoy Haven of Peace, Prosperity. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7230132 Ayers, N. (2008). Ghost Martyrs in Iraq: An Assessment of the Applicability of Rationalist Models to Explain Suicide Attacks in Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 31(9), 856–882. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802291550 Baciu, C., Ostermann, F., & Wagner, W. (2024). The Crisis of Liberal Interventionism and the Return of War. Politics and Governance, 12, Article 7865. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.7865
  • Bendern, P. de (2008, February 23). Turkey launches major land offensive into N.Iraq. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/middle-east/turkey-launches-major-land-offensive-into-niraq-idUSL22614485/
  • Cioffi-Revilla, C., & Romero, P. P. (2009). Modeling Uncertainty in Adversary Behavior: Attacks in Diyala Province, Iraq, 2002–2006. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(3), 253–276. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100802627712
  • Davies, S., Engström, G., Pettersson, T., & Öberg, M. (2024). Organized Violence 1989-2023, and the Prevalence of Organized Crime Groups. Journal of Peace Research, 61(4), 673–693.
  • Geldi, M. (2020, June 20). Türkiye’nin terörle mücadelesi bazı Arap ülkelerini rahatsız etti. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/turkiye-nin-terorle-mucadelesi-bazi-arap-ulkelerini-rahatsiz-etti/1883919
  • Glavin, T. (2015). No Friends but the Mountains: The Fate of the Kurds. World Affairs, 177(6), 57–66.
  • Godfroy, J., & Collins, L. (2019). Iraq, 2003–2011: Succeeding to Fail. Small Wars & Insurgencies, 30(1), 140–175. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2018.1552354
  • Gözen Ercan, P. (2022). R2P at Twenty: A Shared Responsibility? In P. Gözen Ercan (Ed.), The Responsibility to Protect Twenty Years On (pp. 289–301). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90731-0_14
  • Gunter, M. M. (2015). Iraq, Syria, Isis and the Kurds: Geostrategic Concerns for the U.S. and Turkey. Middle East Policy, 22(1), 102–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12116
  • Hafez, M. M. (2006). Suicide Terrorism in Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment of the Quantitative Data and Documentary Evidence. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 29(6), 591–619. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100600790878
  • Hitchens, C. (2007). Holiday in Iraq. Vanity Fair. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2007/04/hitchens200704
  • Hoffman, B. (2006). Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 29(2), 103–121. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100500522173
  • Hughes, G. (2010). The Insurgencies in Iraq, 2003–2009: Origins, Developments and Prospects. Defence Studies, 10(1-2), 152–176. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702430903497783
  • Kardaş, Ş. (2021). Turkey's Military Operations in Iraq: Context and Implications. Middle East Policy, 28(3-4), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.12582
  • Larrabee, F. S. (2010). Troubled partnership: U.S.-Turkish relations in an era of global geopolitical change. Rand Corporation monograph series. RAND.
  • Lipsey, D. (2016). Liberal Interventionism. The Political Quarterly, 87(3), 415–423. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-923X.12229
  • Mead, J. (2005). Game theory and the Second Iraq War. Defense & Security Analysis, 21(3), 303–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/0743017052000344955
  • Medina, R. M., Siebeneck, L. K., & Hepner, G. F. (2011). A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq 2004–2009. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 34(11), 862–882. https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2011.611933
  • Mohammed, A. (2007). Big Turkey incursion in Iraq would be U.S. nightmare. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/big-turkey-incursion-in-iraq-would-be-u-s-nightmare-idUSN07204563/
  • Müftüler-Bac, M. (2006). Turkey and the United States: The Impact of the War in Iraq. International Journal: Canada's Journal of Global Policy Analysis, 61(1), 61–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/002070200606100104
  • Nyadera, I. N., & Kisaka, M. O. (2020). Contemporary conflicts, cross‐border military operations, and the declining role of the UN: The case of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Digest of Middle East Studies, 29(1), 92–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/dome.12206
  • Sadri Alibabalu, S. (2022). Turkey’s Security Policy towards Northern Syria and Iraq amid Regional Chaos (2011-2019). Bilig(102), 147–170. https://doi.org/10.12995/bilig.10207
  • Seifert, K. R., & McCauley, C. (2014). Suicide Bombers in Iraq, 2003–2010: Disaggregating Targets Can Reveal Insurgent Motives and Priorities. Terrorism and Political Violence, 26(5), 803–820. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2013.778198
  • Siebeneck, L. K., Medina, R. M., Yamada, I., & Hepner, G. F. (2009). Spatial and Temporal Analyses of Terrorist Incidents in Iraq, 2004–2006. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 32(7), 591–610. https://doi.org/10.1080/10576100902961789
  • START. (2022). Global Terrorism Database 1970 - 2020. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=209
  • Şahin, M. O. (2023). Türkiye’nin Irak’ın Kuzeyinde Yer Alan PKK Unsurlarına Yönelik 2015-2020 Yılları Arasında İcra Ettiği Sınır Ötesi Operasyonlar ve Sınır Güvenliğine Katkısı. SAVSAD Savunma Ve Savaş Araştırmaları Dergisi, 33(2), 405–432. https://doi.org/10.54078/savsad.1223688
  • Ucko, D. (2008). Militias, Tribes and Insurgents: The Challenge of Political Reintegration in Iraq. Conflict, Security & Development, 8(3), 341–373. https://doi.org/10.1080/14678800802358171
  • Wilcke, C. (2006). A Hard Place: The United States and the Creation of a New Security Apparatus in Iraq. Civil Wars, 8(2), 124–142. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698240600877262
  • Yeşiltaş, M. (2020). Transformation of Turkey’s Defense Industry: Causes, Context and Consequences. Insight Turkey, 22(Summer 2020), Article https://www.insightturkey.com, 89–114. https://doi.org/10.25253/99.2020223.07
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Turkish Foreign Policy
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Şahin 0000-0002-0142-6666

Ömer Faruk Kocatepe 0000-0001-8647-4634

Publication Date June 27, 2025
Submission Date December 5, 2024
Acceptance Date March 23, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 16 Issue: 31

Cite

APA Şahin, M., & Kocatepe, Ö. F. (2025). A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF TÜRKİYE’S CROSS-BORDER COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS ON IRAQ’S STABILITY: 2004-2023. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 16(31), 144-167. https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2025.006
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