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POPULATION AGING AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS: THE CASE OF EU COUNTRIES

Year 2024, Volume: 26 Issue: 46, 554 - 566, 30.06.2024

Ayşe Arı , Elvan Küpeli

Abstract

Population aging may create significant macroeconomic problems for countries. It is stated that foreign direct investment inflows to countries where aging is increasing will also decrease. In this study, the effect of population aging on FDI was investigated. It is thought that the findings from this study will contribute to the literature since there are limited studies investigating the population aging-FDI issue. In the study, European Union countries and the period 2002-2021 were analyzed. In the study GMM method was used and it was determined that the population aging negatively affected FDI inflows. This result supports the view that population aging will negatively affect FDI inflow through channels such as labor supply and the price of production factors. In this case, authorities in EU countries, where the elderly population is increasing, should encourage other macroeconomic policies that will attract FDI inflows in order to alleviate the negative impact of population aging on FDI inflows.

Keywords

Population Aging FDI EU Countries

References

  • Abbas, A., Moosa, I. ve Ramiah, V. (2022). The Contribution Of Human Capital To Foreign Direct Investment Inflows In Developing Countries. Journal of Intellectual Capital, 23(1),9-26. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIC-12-2020-0388
  • Acemoglu, D. (2010).When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?. Journal of Political Economy, 118(6), 1037–1078. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/658160
  • Acemoglu, D. ve Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23077 Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Acemoglu, D. ve Restrepo, P. (2018). Demographics and Automation. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 24421, 1-93. http://www.nber.org/papers/w24421
  • Alshamsi, K.H., Hussin, M.R.ve Azam, M. (2015). The Impact of Inflation and GDP Per Capita on Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of United Arab Emirates. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(3), 132-141.
  • Ando, A.. ve Modigliani, F. (1963). The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review, 53(1), 55–84.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests Of Specifcation For Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence And An Application To Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2),277–297.
  • Çeviş, İ. ve Çamurdan, B. (2007). The Economic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries and Transition Economies. The Pakistan Development Review, 46(3), 285–99.
  • Çoban, M.N. (2022). Nüfusun Yaşlanmasının Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişleri Üzerine Etkisi: ASEAN-5 Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. Balıkesir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Temmuz 2022, 3(1), 1- 12.
  • Erdogan, M. ve Unver, M. (2015). Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investments: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(5), 82-95.
  • Gannon, F., Le Garrec, G. ve Touze, V. (2020). The South’s Demographic Transition And International Capital Flows In A Financially İntegrated World Economy. Journal of Demographic Economics, 86, 1-45.
  • Huo, C., Xiao, G. ve Chen, L. (2021).The Crowding-Out Effect Of Elderly Support Expenditure On Household Consumption From The Perspective Of Population Aging: Evidence From China. Frontiers of Business Research in China, 15(5), 1-20.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots In Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1),53-74.
  • Kheng, V., Sun, S. ve Anwar, S.(2017). Foreign Direct Investment And Human Capital In Developing Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Economic Change and Restructuring ,50, 341–365.
  • Kim, S. ve Lee, J.W.(2008). Demographic Changes, Saving, And Current Account: An Analysis Based On A Panel VAR Model. Japan and the World Economy, 20(2008), 236–256.
  • Kim, H.K ve Lee, S.H.(2021). The Effects Of Population Aging On South Korea’s Economy: The National Transfer Accounts Approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 20(100340), 1-12.
  • Kumari, R. ve Sharma, A.K. (2017). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(4), 658-682.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C.F. ve Chu, C.S.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests In Panel Data: Asymptotic And Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1),1–24.
  • Ludwig, A., Krueger, D. Ve Boersch-Supan, A.H. (2007). Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, And Their Differential Effects On The Welfare Of Generations. NBER Workıng Paper Serıes, Working Paper 13185.
  • Maestas, N, Mullen, K.J. ve Powell, D. (2022). The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productıvıty. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22452.
  • Mitra, R., ve Abedin, T. (2020). Population Ageing and FDI Inflows in Japan: ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1814–1825.
  • Mitra, R. ve Abedin, A.T. (2021). Population Ageing And FDI Inflows In OECD Countries: A Dynamic Panel Cointegration Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 28(13), 1071-1075.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross Section Data. In K. K. Kurihara (Ed.) Post Keynesian Economics (pp.388-436), New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.
  • Mostafa, M.M. (2020). Impacts of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh, International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, 4(11), 53-69.
  • Narciso, A. (2010). The Impact of Population Ageing on International Capital Flows. MPRA Paper 26457, Germany: University Library of Munich.
  • Oloyede, J.A. ve Kolapo, F.T.(2018). Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment to Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal,5(7), 409-427.
  • Pham, T.N. ve Vo, D.H. (2021). Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach., Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(1), 108-122.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1),86-136.
  • Tomohara, A. (2017). Does Immigration Crowd Out Foreign Direct Investment Inflows? Tradeoff between Contemporaneous FDI-immigration Substitution and Ethnic Network Externalities. Economic Modelling, 64 (C), 40–47.
  • Ullah, S., Akhtar, P. ve Zaefarian, G. (2018). Dealing With Endogeneity Bias: The Generalized Method Of Moments (GMM) For Panel Data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71(2018), 69–78.
  • Zhao, L, Zhang, Y. ve Xie, Y.(2023). Does the Aging of the Chinese Population Have an Impact on Outward Foreign Direct Investment? Sustainability, 15(13995), 1-24.

NÜFUSUN YAŞLANMASI VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR: AB ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2024, Volume: 26 Issue: 46, 554 - 566, 30.06.2024

Ayşe Arı , Elvan Küpeli

Abstract

Nüfustaki yaşlanma ülkeler için önemli makroekonomik sorunlar yaratabilmektedir. Yaşlanmanın arttığı ülkelere gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımların da azalacağı ifade edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada nüfustaki yaşlanmanın DYY üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Konu ile ilgili literatürde sınırlı sayıda çalışma olmasından ötürü bu çalışmadan elde edilecek bulguların önem taşıdığı düşünülmektedir. Çalışmada Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve 2002-2021 dönemi analiz edilmiştir. GMM yöntemine başvurulan çalışmada yaşlı nüfusun DYY girişini negatif etkilediği belirlenmiştir. Bu sonuç nüfustaki yaşlanmanın işgücü arzı, üretim faktörlerinin fiyatı gibi kanallarla DYY girişini olumsuz etkileyeceğine dair görüşleri desteklemektedir. Bu durumda yaşlı nüfusun arttığı AB ülkelerinde otoriteler, nüfustaki yaşlanmanın DYY girişine olan olumsuz etkisini hafifletebilmek için, DYY’yi ülkeye çekecek diğer makroekonomik politikaları teşvik etmelidir.

Keywords

Nüfusun yaşlanması DYY AB Ülkeleri

References

  • Abbas, A., Moosa, I. ve Ramiah, V. (2022). The Contribution Of Human Capital To Foreign Direct Investment Inflows In Developing Countries. Journal of Intellectual Capital, 23(1),9-26. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIC-12-2020-0388
  • Acemoglu, D. (2010).When Does Labor Scarcity Encourage Innovation?. Journal of Political Economy, 118(6), 1037–1078. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/658160
  • Acemoglu, D. ve Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 23077 Cambridge, MA, USA.
  • Acemoglu, D. ve Restrepo, P. (2018). Demographics and Automation. NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper 24421, 1-93. http://www.nber.org/papers/w24421
  • Alshamsi, K.H., Hussin, M.R.ve Azam, M. (2015). The Impact of Inflation and GDP Per Capita on Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of United Arab Emirates. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(3), 132-141.
  • Ando, A.. ve Modigliani, F. (1963). The Life-Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests. American Economic Review, 53(1), 55–84.
  • Arellano, M. ve Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests Of Specifcation For Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence And An Application To Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2),277–297.
  • Çeviş, İ. ve Çamurdan, B. (2007). The Economic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries and Transition Economies. The Pakistan Development Review, 46(3), 285–99.
  • Çoban, M.N. (2022). Nüfusun Yaşlanmasının Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Girişleri Üzerine Etkisi: ASEAN-5 Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi. Balıkesir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Temmuz 2022, 3(1), 1- 12.
  • Erdogan, M. ve Unver, M. (2015). Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investments: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(5), 82-95.
  • Gannon, F., Le Garrec, G. ve Touze, V. (2020). The South’s Demographic Transition And International Capital Flows In A Financially İntegrated World Economy. Journal of Demographic Economics, 86, 1-45.
  • Huo, C., Xiao, G. ve Chen, L. (2021).The Crowding-Out Effect Of Elderly Support Expenditure On Household Consumption From The Perspective Of Population Aging: Evidence From China. Frontiers of Business Research in China, 15(5), 1-20.
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. ve Shin, Y. (2003). Testing For Unit Roots In Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1),53-74.
  • Kheng, V., Sun, S. ve Anwar, S.(2017). Foreign Direct Investment And Human Capital In Developing Countries: A Panel Data Approach. Economic Change and Restructuring ,50, 341–365.
  • Kim, S. ve Lee, J.W.(2008). Demographic Changes, Saving, And Current Account: An Analysis Based On A Panel VAR Model. Japan and the World Economy, 20(2008), 236–256.
  • Kim, H.K ve Lee, S.H.(2021). The Effects Of Population Aging On South Korea’s Economy: The National Transfer Accounts Approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 20(100340), 1-12.
  • Kumari, R. ve Sharma, A.K. (2017). Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Study. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 12(4), 658-682.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C.F. ve Chu, C.S.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests In Panel Data: Asymptotic And Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1),1–24.
  • Ludwig, A., Krueger, D. Ve Boersch-Supan, A.H. (2007). Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, And Their Differential Effects On The Welfare Of Generations. NBER Workıng Paper Serıes, Working Paper 13185.
  • Maestas, N, Mullen, K.J. ve Powell, D. (2022). The Effect Of Population Aging On Economic Growth, The Labor Force And Productıvıty. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22452.
  • Mitra, R., ve Abedin, T. (2020). Population Ageing and FDI Inflows in Japan: ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Economics Bulletin, 40(2), 1814–1825.
  • Mitra, R. ve Abedin, A.T. (2021). Population Ageing And FDI Inflows In OECD Countries: A Dynamic Panel Cointegration Analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 28(13), 1071-1075.
  • Modigliani, F. ve Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross Section Data. In K. K. Kurihara (Ed.) Post Keynesian Economics (pp.388-436), New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.
  • Mostafa, M.M. (2020). Impacts of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh, International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, 4(11), 53-69.
  • Narciso, A. (2010). The Impact of Population Ageing on International Capital Flows. MPRA Paper 26457, Germany: University Library of Munich.
  • Oloyede, J.A. ve Kolapo, F.T.(2018). Sensitivity of Foreign Direct Investment to Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal,5(7), 409-427.
  • Pham, T.N. ve Vo, D.H. (2021). Aging Population and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Quantile Regression Approach., Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(1), 108-122.
  • Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1),86-136.
  • Tomohara, A. (2017). Does Immigration Crowd Out Foreign Direct Investment Inflows? Tradeoff between Contemporaneous FDI-immigration Substitution and Ethnic Network Externalities. Economic Modelling, 64 (C), 40–47.
  • Ullah, S., Akhtar, P. ve Zaefarian, G. (2018). Dealing With Endogeneity Bias: The Generalized Method Of Moments (GMM) For Panel Data. Industrial Marketing Management, 71(2018), 69–78.
  • Zhao, L, Zhang, Y. ve Xie, Y.(2023). Does the Aging of the Chinese Population Have an Impact on Outward Foreign Direct Investment? Sustainability, 15(13995), 1-24.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Econometric and Statistical Methods
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Ayşe Arı

Elvan Küpeli

Early Pub Date June 28, 2024
Publication Date June 30, 2024
Submission Date February 1, 2024
Acceptance Date June 4, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 26 Issue: 46

Cite

APA Arı, A., & Küpeli, E. (2024). NÜFUSUN YAŞLANMASI VE DOĞRUDAN YABANCI YATIRIMLAR: AB ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 26(46), 554-566.

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