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GELİŞMİŞ ÜLKELERDE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLER VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN TURİZM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Year 2024, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 185 - 199, 30.12.2024

Yunus Savaş

https://doi.org/10.59113/niibfd.1520450

Abstract

Turizmin ve belirleyicilerinin incelenmesi, araştırmalar içinde köklü bir alan teşkil etmektedir. Ancak son yıllarda, turizmin önemli bir belirleyicisi olarak jeopolitik risklerin önemi dikkat çekmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Kao ve Westerlund koentegrasyon testi, panel otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) modeli ve Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testlerini içeren kapsamlı bir analitik çerçeve kullanılmaktadır. Analiz, jeopolitik risklerin ve ekonomik büyümenin gelişmiş ülkelerdeki turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkisini 1996'dan 2018'e kadar olan dönemi kapsayacak şekilde ayırt etmeye odaklanmaktadır. Kao ve Westerlund eş-bütünleşme testlerinin uygulanması, incelenen değişkenler arasında eş-bütünleşme olduğuna dair kanıtlar ortaya koymaktadır. ARDL modeli sonuçları, jeopolitik risklerin ve ekonomik büyümenin turizm gelirlerinin uzun vadeli temel belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermektedir: jeopolitik riskteki %1'lik bir artış gelirleri yaklaşık %0,13 oranında artırırken, GSYH'deki %1'lik bir artış gelirleri %3,23 oranında artırmaktadır. Bu durum, turizm gelirleri üzerindeki etkilerinin uzun bir zamansal ufukta süreklilik arz ettiğinin altını çizmektedir.

Keywords

Panel Veri Ekonomik Büyüme Turizm Jeopolitik Riskler

References

  • Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2018). Is Spain benefiting from the Arab Spring? On the impact of terrorism on a tourist competitor country. Quality and Quantity, 52(3), 1371–1408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0527-2
  • Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.001
  • Akadiri, S. Saint, Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
  • Al-Mulali, U., Gholipour, H. F., & Al-hajj, E. (2020). The nonlinear effects of oil prices on tourism arrivals in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(8), 942–946. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1586844
  • Ashley, C., & Mitchell, J. (2009). Tourism and Poverty Reduction: Pathways to Prosperity (1st ed.). Routledge.
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G. S., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997–1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
  • Baltagi, B., Feng, Q., & Kao, C. (2012). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Cross-Sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model. https://surface.syr.edu/cprhttps://surface.syr.edu/cpr/193
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviell, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823
  • Cárdenas-García, P. J., Sánchez-Rivero, M., & Pulido-Fernández, J. I. (2015). Does Tourism Growth Influence Economic Development? Journal of Travel Research, 54(2), 206–221. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513514297
  • Cavlek, N. (2002). Tour operators and destination safety. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(2), 478–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00067-6
  • Cho, V. (2010). A Study of the non-economic determinants in tourism demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 307–320. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.749
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Demiralay, S., & Kilincarslan, E. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on travel and leisure stocks. Tourism Management, 75, 460–476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.013
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Noncausality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Dwyer, L., Forsyth, P., & Spurr, R. (2006). Effects of the Sars Crisis on the Economic Contribution of Tourism to Australia. Tourism Review International, 10(1), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427206779307231
  • Falk, M., & Lin, X. (2018). Sensitivity of winter tourism to temperature increases over the last decades. Economic Modelling, 71, 174–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.011
  • Hailemariam, A., & Ivanovski, K. (2021). The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism. Current Issues in Tourism 24(22) 3134–3140. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
  • Hasan, M., Naeem, M. A., Arif, M., Shahzad, S. J. H., & Nor, S. M. (2020). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 12(21), 9261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219261
  • Jiang, Y., Tian, G., Wu, Y., & Mo, B. (2022). Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 320–333. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2155
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Kirci Altinkeski, B. (2023). Geopolitical Risk Spillovers: Evidence from G20 Countries. Journal of Economics and Political Sciences, 3(2), 64-77.
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Akadiri, S. Saint. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Lee, C.-C., Olasehinde-Williams, G. O., & Ibikunle, J. A. (2022). An asymmetric examination of the environmental effect of tourism in China. Tourism Economics, 28(7), 1872–1887. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211021173
  • Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.001
  • Liu, H., Wu, P., & Li, G. (2021). Do crises affect the sustainability of the economic effects of tourism? A case study of Hong Kong. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 31(9), 2023–2041 https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2021.1966018
  • Persyn, D. & J. Westerlund (2008) Error Correction Based Cointegration Tests for Panel Data. Stata Journal 8 (2), 232-241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0800800205
  • Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. (Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435). Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
  • Peseran, H.M. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.671050
  • Polat, M., Alptürk, Y., & Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 71–78. https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
  • Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75, 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Trindade, M. (2017). The Impact of Terrorism on the Portuguese Tourism Demand [Unpublished Master Dissertations]. NOVA- School of Business and Economics.
  • Uriely, N., Maoz, D., & Reichel, A. (2009). Israeli guests and Egyptian hosts in Sinai: A bubble of serenity. Journal of Travel Research, 47(4), 508–522. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287508326651
  • Weaver, A. (2011). Tourism and the military. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 672–689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.12.005
  • Westerlund, J. (2007) Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69(6): 709-748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
  • World Bank [03.01.2023] World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON TOURISM IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES

Year 2024, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 185 - 199, 30.12.2024

Yunus Savaş

https://doi.org/10.59113/niibfd.1520450

Abstract

The exploration of tourism and its determinants constitutes a well-established domain within research. However, in recent years, the significance of geopolitical risks as a crucial determinant of tourism has gained increasing attention. This study employs a comprehensive analytical framework, incorporating the Kao and Westerlund co-integration test, the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and Dumitrescu Hurlin (2012) panel causality tests. The analysis focuses on discerning the impact of geopolitical risks and economic growth on tourism receipts across advanced countries, spanning the period from 1996 to 2018. The application of Kao and Westerlund co-integration tests reveals evidence of co-integration among the examined variables. The ARDL model results indicate that geopolitical risks and economic growth are key long-term drivers of tourism receipts: a 1% increase in geopolitical risk raises receipts by about 0.13%, while a 1% GDP increase boosts them by 3.23%. These findings highlight the sustained nature of their influence on tourism receipts over an extended temporal horizon.

Keywords

Panel Data Economic Growth Tourism Geopolitical Risks

References

  • Afonso-Rodríguez, J. A., & Santana-Gallego, M. (2018). Is Spain benefiting from the Arab Spring? On the impact of terrorism on a tourist competitor country. Quality and Quantity, 52(3), 1371–1408. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-017-0527-2
  • Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.001
  • Akadiri, S. Saint, Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2019.09.002
  • Al-Mulali, U., Gholipour, H. F., & Al-hajj, E. (2020). The nonlinear effects of oil prices on tourism arrivals in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(8), 942–946. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1586844
  • Ashley, C., & Mitchell, J. (2009). Tourism and Poverty Reduction: Pathways to Prosperity (1st ed.). Routledge.
  • Balli, F., Uddin, G. S., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997–1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
  • Baltagi, B., Feng, Q., & Kao, C. (2012). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Cross-Sectional Dependence in a Fixed Effects Panel Data Model. https://surface.syr.edu/cprhttps://surface.syr.edu/cpr/193
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Caldara, D., & Iacoviell, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823
  • Cárdenas-García, P. J., Sánchez-Rivero, M., & Pulido-Fernández, J. I. (2015). Does Tourism Growth Influence Economic Development? Journal of Travel Research, 54(2), 206–221. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287513514297
  • Cavlek, N. (2002). Tour operators and destination safety. Annals of Tourism Research, 29(2), 478–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(01)00067-6
  • Cho, V. (2010). A Study of the non-economic determinants in tourism demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 307–320. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.749
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., & Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do geopolitical risks matter for inbound tourism? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Demiralay, S., & Kilincarslan, E. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on travel and leisure stocks. Tourism Management, 75, 460–476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.013
  • Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012), Testing for Granger Noncausality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Dwyer, L., Forsyth, P., & Spurr, R. (2006). Effects of the Sars Crisis on the Economic Contribution of Tourism to Australia. Tourism Review International, 10(1), 47–55. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427206779307231
  • Falk, M., & Lin, X. (2018). Sensitivity of winter tourism to temperature increases over the last decades. Economic Modelling, 71, 174–183. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.12.011
  • Hailemariam, A., & Ivanovski, K. (2021). The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism. Current Issues in Tourism 24(22) 3134–3140. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
  • Hasan, M., Naeem, M. A., Arif, M., Shahzad, S. J. H., & Nor, S. M. (2020). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 12(21), 9261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219261
  • Jiang, Y., Tian, G., Wu, Y., & Mo, B. (2022). Impacts of geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainty on Chinese tourism‐listed company stock. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(1), 320–333. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2155
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics, 90(1), 1–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00023-2
  • Kirci Altinkeski, B. (2023). Geopolitical Risk Spillovers: Evidence from G20 Countries. Journal of Economics and Political Sciences, 3(2), 64-77.
  • Lee, C. C., & Chang, C. P. (2008). Tourism development and economic growth: A closer look at panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.02.013
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Akadiri, S. Saint. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26–38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Lee, C.-C., Olasehinde-Williams, G. O., & Ibikunle, J. A. (2022). An asymmetric examination of the environmental effect of tourism in China. Tourism Economics, 28(7), 1872–1887. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211021173
  • Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism’s vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404–417. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.001
  • Liu, H., Wu, P., & Li, G. (2021). Do crises affect the sustainability of the economic effects of tourism? A case study of Hong Kong. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 31(9), 2023–2041 https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2021.1966018
  • Persyn, D. & J. Westerlund (2008) Error Correction Based Cointegration Tests for Panel Data. Stata Journal 8 (2), 232-241. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0800800205
  • Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. (Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No. 0435). Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156
  • Peseran, H.M. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.671050
  • Polat, M., Alptürk, Y., & Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 71–78. https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
  • Tiwari, A. K., Das, D., & Dutta, A. (2019). Geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty and tourist arrivals: Evidence from a developing country. Tourism Management, 75, 323–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Trindade, M. (2017). The Impact of Terrorism on the Portuguese Tourism Demand [Unpublished Master Dissertations]. NOVA- School of Business and Economics.
  • Uriely, N., Maoz, D., & Reichel, A. (2009). Israeli guests and Egyptian hosts in Sinai: A bubble of serenity. Journal of Travel Research, 47(4), 508–522. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287508326651
  • Weaver, A. (2011). Tourism and the military. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), 672–689. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.12.005
  • Westerlund, J. (2007) Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69(6): 709-748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
  • World Bank [03.01.2023] World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org
There are 41 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Panel Data Analysis, Growth, Tourism Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Yunus Savaş 0000-0002-9642-4734

Early Pub Date December 30, 2024
Publication Date December 30, 2024
Submission Date July 23, 2024
Acceptance Date December 9, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Savaş, Y. (2024). ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH ON TOURISM IN ADVANCED COUNTRIES. Nazilli İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(2), 185-199. https://doi.org/10.59113/niibfd.1520450
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