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EFFECTS OF REGIONAL WARS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: THE EXAMPLE OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 765 - 782, 20.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1637795

Abstract

Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, combined with the strict financial sanctions imposed on Moscow, has not only had economic consequences for Russia but also affected the global economy. Inflationary pressures stemming from the Ukraine crisis are currently damaging most of the world’s economies and are being exacerbated by significant increases in the prices of oil, gas, and both industrial and agricultural goods. Consequently, this study aims to investigate the economic consequences of the 2022 conflict between Russia and Ukraine on major players in the global economy, particularly the United States and Europe, which have imposed severe financial sanctions on Russia. The research hypothesis suggests that, in light of the political and military dimensions of the conflict in Ukraine, the country’s leaders are prioritizing political rather than economic considerations in their decision-making processes regarding this crisis. This change has led to the re-entry of economic issues, previously seen as secondary during the Cold War, into the realm of primary policy concerns, resulting in the expected recessionary trends and rising global prices. The outbreak of the war has shown that the economies and markets of European countries that maintain significant economic ties with Russia and Ukraine and are more dependent on these countries for energy resources have experienced negative effects. While the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to have negative effects on the global economy and financial markets, it is believed that its impact will not be significant on a global scale.

References

  • Akbulak, Y. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Çatışmasının Küresel Finansal Piyasalara ve Küresel Ekonomiye Etkileri* legal yayıncılık. https://legal.com.tr/blog/genel/rusya-ukrayna-catismasinin-kuresel-finansal-piyasalara-ve-kuresel-ekonomiye-etkileri/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025).
  • Bağış, B. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Küresel Ekonomiye ve Türkiye'ye Etkileri. SETA. https://www.setav.org/rapor-rusya-ukrayna-savasinin-kuresel-ekonomiye-ve-turkiyeye-etkileri/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • BBC. (2022a). Stock markets rebound on Russia sanctions. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60518578 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • BBC. (2022b). Ukraine conflict: Russia doubles interest rate after rouble slump. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Bloomberg. (2022). Ukrayna krizinin ekonomik etkileri hakkında bilmeniz gerekenler. https://www.bloomberght.com/ukrayna-krizinin-ekonomik-etkileri-hakkinda-bilmeniz-gerekenler-2299463 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Bushkhor, M. (2021). Signs of economic war in the field of currency and trade settlement. Scientific Monthly Economic Security, 8(10), 39-50.
  • BusinessToday. (2022). How cryptocurrencies have fared amid Russia-Ukraine war. https://www.businesstoday.in/crypto/story/how-cryptocurrencies-have-fared-amid-russia-ukraine-war-324892-2022-03-06 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Capital. 2022. What a Russia-Ukraine conflict could mean for the forex market. https://capital.com/what-a-russia-ukraine-conflict-could-mean-for-the-forex-market (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • CBSNEWS. (2022). Stocks swing and oil prices soar after Russia attacks Ukraine. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-stocks-plunge-2022-02-24/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • CNBC, (2022a). The Russia-Ukraine war has hit many currencies hard. Here's what analysts are expecting now. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/russia-ukraine-war-has-hit-currencies-hard-heres-what-analysts-expect-next.html (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kumar, S. (2018). How do firms form their expectations? new survey evidence. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2671-2713.
  • D'Acunto, F & M Weber (2022), Rising Inflation is worrisome. But not for the reasons you think, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rising-inflation-worrisome-not-reasons-you-think
  • Demir, S. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı 2022: Nedenler ve Etkileri. Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 13-40.
  • Ebrahimi Kiapi, H. (2019). Hybrid war: the approach of the United States of America in facing the Islamic Republic of Iran. International Relations Research, 10(2), 155-180.
  • Economist. (2022). The rouble's collapse compounds Russia's isolation. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/02/28/the-roubles-collapse-compounds-russias-isolation (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Euromoney. (2022). Ukraine Crisis Hits Global FX Butreaction Not Always As Expected. https://www.euromoney.com/article/29sbllc0x3vsnwts64vsw/foreign-exchange/ukraine-crisis-hits-global-fx-but-reaction-not-always-as-expected (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • FAO (2022). Food price index. from https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/. (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • FAO. (2022). The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict.” from https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf. (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Indianexpress. (2022). Russia-Ukraine war: Impact on markets and risks ahead. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/russia-ukraine-invasion-market-impact-7788643/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • JPMORGAN. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What Does It Mean for Markets? https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/russia-ukraine-crisis-market-impact (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Kammer, A., Azour, J., Selassie, A.A., Goldfajn, I., and Rhee, C. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions. https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Kammer, A., Azour, J., Selassie, A.A., Goldfajn, I., and Rhee, C. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions. https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Mazloum Khorasani. (2010). Humans, weapons and war. Social Sciences (Mashhad Ferdowsi University), 15(7), 169-211.
  • Mining. (2022). Gold price reverses course as traders assess impact of Ukraine conflict. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-reverses-course-as-traders-assess-impact f-ukraine-conflict/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Money. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Is Rattling the Stock Market. Here's What Investors Should Do Now. https://money.com/russia-ukraine-stock-market/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Pettinger, T. (2022). Economic impact of war. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2180/economics/economic-impact-of-war/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Reuters. (2022). Europe at war: Six charts to know in financial markets. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-war-six-charts-know-financial-markets-2022-02-26/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Sulaimani, Gh. H., Husroniya, M., Lutf Elahi, A. R., Abbasi, W. (2018). Hybrid wars and ways to counter it. CIVILICA. Retrieved 11 02 2025, from https://civilica.com/doc/875976/ (in persian).
  • Süleymanlı, V. (2019). Savaş ekonomisi ve ekonomik savaş” disiplinlerarası ve stratejik bilim alanının türkiye’de bir ders olarak eğitiminin verilmesinin gerekliliği. Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları, 122(240), 169-204.
  • The Guardian. (2022). Ukraine war a 'catastrophe' for global economy as stock markets plunge. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/04/ukraine-war-a-catastrophe-for-global-economy-as-stock-markets (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • UN DESA. (2022). Potential economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. from https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-april-2022-briefing-no-159/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Valizadeh, A., Shirazi Mogouei, S., and Azizi, H. (2015). The Impact of Ukraine Crisis in 2014 on the Relations of United States of America and Russia. Central Eurasian Studies Journal, 8(1), 149-171.
  • Wen S, Yi Z, Wu LJ. (2022). Impact of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global food security. CIR. 32(5), 54-77.
  • World Bank Group. (2022). Commodity Markets Outlook: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets. from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/37223/CMO-April-2022.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 11.02.2025)
  • Wozniak, M. (2016). The Ukraine crisis and shift in US foreign policy. International Studies: Interdisciplinary Political and Cultural Journal (IS), 18(2), 87-102.
  • WSJ. (2022). Dollar Strength Builds as Ukraine War Deepens. https://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-strength-builds-as-ukraine-war-deepens-11646575604 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Zeebiz. (2022). Russia-Ukraine War Impact on Global Economy: Stocks fall, markets slid as conflict rages. https://www.zeebiz.com/world/news-russia-ukraine-war-impact-on-global-economy-stocks-fall-markets-slid-as-conflict-rages-179987 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)

Bölgesel Savaşların Küresel Ekonomi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı Örneği

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 765 - 782, 20.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1637795

Abstract

Şubat 2022'de Rusya'nın Ukrayna'yı kapsamlı bir şekilde işgal etmesi, Moskova'ya uygulanan katı mali yaptırımlarla birleşince, yalnızca Rusya için ekonomik sonuçlar doğurmakla kalmamış, aynı zamanda küresel ekonomiyi de etkilemiştir. Ukrayna krizinden kaynaklanan enflasyonist baskılar şu anda dünya ekonomilerinin çoğuna zarar vermektedir ve petrol, gaz ve hem endüstriyel hem de tarımsal malların fiyatlarında önemli bir artışla daha da kötüleşmektedir. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma, Rusya ile Ukrayna arasındaki 2022 çatışmasının, özellikle Rusya'ya karşı ağır mali yaptırımlar uygulayan ABD ve Avrupa olmak üzere küresel ekonomideki önemli oyuncular üzerindeki ekonomik sonuçlarını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma hipotezi, Ukrayna'daki çatışmanın siyasi ve askeri boyutları ışığında, ülke liderlerinin bu krizle ilgili karar alma süreçlerinde ekonomik olanlardan ziyade siyasi düşünceleri önceliklendirdiğini öne sürmektedir. Bu değişim, daha önce Soğuk Savaş sırasında ikincil olarak görülen ekonomik sorunların, birincil politika endişeleri alanına yeniden girmesine yol açmış ve beklenen durgunluk eğilimlerine ve artan küresel fiyatlara neden olmuştur. Savaşın başlaması, Rusya ve Ukrayna ile önemli ekonomik bağlantıları sürdüren ve enerji kaynakları için bu ülkelere daha fazla bağımlı olan Avrupa ülkelerinin ekonomilerinin ve piyasalarının olumsuz etkiler yaşadığını ortaya koymuştur. Rusya ve Ukrayna arasındaki çatışmanın küresel ekonomi ve finans piyasaları üzerinde olumsuz etkiler yaratacağı öngörülürken, etkisinin dünya çapında bağımsız olarak önemli olmayacağına inanılmaktadır.

References

  • Akbulak, Y. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Çatışmasının Küresel Finansal Piyasalara ve Küresel Ekonomiye Etkileri* legal yayıncılık. https://legal.com.tr/blog/genel/rusya-ukrayna-catismasinin-kuresel-finansal-piyasalara-ve-kuresel-ekonomiye-etkileri/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025).
  • Bağış, B. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşının Küresel Ekonomiye ve Türkiye'ye Etkileri. SETA. https://www.setav.org/rapor-rusya-ukrayna-savasinin-kuresel-ekonomiye-ve-turkiyeye-etkileri/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • BBC. (2022a). Stock markets rebound on Russia sanctions. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60518578 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • BBC. (2022b). Ukraine conflict: Russia doubles interest rate after rouble slump. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60550992 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Bloomberg. (2022). Ukrayna krizinin ekonomik etkileri hakkında bilmeniz gerekenler. https://www.bloomberght.com/ukrayna-krizinin-ekonomik-etkileri-hakkinda-bilmeniz-gerekenler-2299463 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Bushkhor, M. (2021). Signs of economic war in the field of currency and trade settlement. Scientific Monthly Economic Security, 8(10), 39-50.
  • BusinessToday. (2022). How cryptocurrencies have fared amid Russia-Ukraine war. https://www.businesstoday.in/crypto/story/how-cryptocurrencies-have-fared-amid-russia-ukraine-war-324892-2022-03-06 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Capital. 2022. What a Russia-Ukraine conflict could mean for the forex market. https://capital.com/what-a-russia-ukraine-conflict-could-mean-for-the-forex-market (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • CBSNEWS. (2022). Stocks swing and oil prices soar after Russia attacks Ukraine. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-invasion-stocks-plunge-2022-02-24/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • CNBC, (2022a). The Russia-Ukraine war has hit many currencies hard. Here's what analysts are expecting now. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/09/russia-ukraine-war-has-hit-currencies-hard-heres-what-analysts-expect-next.html (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Is the Phillips curve alive and well after all? Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 197-232.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kumar, S. (2018). How do firms form their expectations? new survey evidence. American Economic Review, 108(9), 2671-2713.
  • D'Acunto, F & M Weber (2022), Rising Inflation is worrisome. But not for the reasons you think, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rising-inflation-worrisome-not-reasons-you-think
  • Demir, S. (2022). Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı 2022: Nedenler ve Etkileri. Bölgesel Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 13-40.
  • Ebrahimi Kiapi, H. (2019). Hybrid war: the approach of the United States of America in facing the Islamic Republic of Iran. International Relations Research, 10(2), 155-180.
  • Economist. (2022). The rouble's collapse compounds Russia's isolation. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/02/28/the-roubles-collapse-compounds-russias-isolation (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Euromoney. (2022). Ukraine Crisis Hits Global FX Butreaction Not Always As Expected. https://www.euromoney.com/article/29sbllc0x3vsnwts64vsw/foreign-exchange/ukraine-crisis-hits-global-fx-but-reaction-not-always-as-expected (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • FAO (2022). Food price index. from https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/. (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • FAO. (2022). The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current conflict.” from https://www.fao.org/3/cb9236en/cb9236en.pdf. (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Indianexpress. (2022). Russia-Ukraine war: Impact on markets and risks ahead. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/russia-ukraine-invasion-market-impact-7788643/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • JPMORGAN. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What Does It Mean for Markets? https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/russia-ukraine-crisis-market-impact (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Kammer, A., Azour, J., Selassie, A.A., Goldfajn, I., and Rhee, C. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions. https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Kammer, A., Azour, J., Selassie, A.A., Goldfajn, I., and Rhee, C. (2022). How War in Ukraine Is Reverberating Across World's Regions. https://blogs.imf.org/2022/03/15/how-war-in-ukraine-is-reverberating-across-worlds-regions/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Mazloum Khorasani. (2010). Humans, weapons and war. Social Sciences (Mashhad Ferdowsi University), 15(7), 169-211.
  • Mining. (2022). Gold price reverses course as traders assess impact of Ukraine conflict. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-reverses-course-as-traders-assess-impact f-ukraine-conflict/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Money. (2022). The Russia-Ukraine Conflict Is Rattling the Stock Market. Here's What Investors Should Do Now. https://money.com/russia-ukraine-stock-market/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Pettinger, T. (2022). Economic impact of war. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2180/economics/economic-impact-of-war/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Reuters. (2022). Europe at war: Six charts to know in financial markets. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/europe-war-six-charts-know-financial-markets-2022-02-26/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Sulaimani, Gh. H., Husroniya, M., Lutf Elahi, A. R., Abbasi, W. (2018). Hybrid wars and ways to counter it. CIVILICA. Retrieved 11 02 2025, from https://civilica.com/doc/875976/ (in persian).
  • Süleymanlı, V. (2019). Savaş ekonomisi ve ekonomik savaş” disiplinlerarası ve stratejik bilim alanının türkiye’de bir ders olarak eğitiminin verilmesinin gerekliliği. Türk Dünyası Araştırmaları, 122(240), 169-204.
  • The Guardian. (2022). Ukraine war a 'catastrophe' for global economy as stock markets plunge. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/04/ukraine-war-a-catastrophe-for-global-economy-as-stock-markets (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • UN DESA. (2022). Potential economic fallout from the war in Ukraine. from https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-april-2022-briefing-no-159/ (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Valizadeh, A., Shirazi Mogouei, S., and Azizi, H. (2015). The Impact of Ukraine Crisis in 2014 on the Relations of United States of America and Russia. Central Eurasian Studies Journal, 8(1), 149-171.
  • Wen S, Yi Z, Wu LJ. (2022). Impact of the Russian-Ukraine crisis on global food security. CIR. 32(5), 54-77.
  • World Bank Group. (2022). Commodity Markets Outlook: The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodity Markets. from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/37223/CMO-April-2022.pdf. (Erişim Tarihi: 11.02.2025)
  • Wozniak, M. (2016). The Ukraine crisis and shift in US foreign policy. International Studies: Interdisciplinary Political and Cultural Journal (IS), 18(2), 87-102.
  • WSJ. (2022). Dollar Strength Builds as Ukraine War Deepens. https://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-strength-builds-as-ukraine-war-deepens-11646575604 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
  • Zeebiz. (2022). Russia-Ukraine War Impact on Global Economy: Stocks fall, markets slid as conflict rages. https://www.zeebiz.com/world/news-russia-ukraine-war-impact-on-global-economy-stocks-fall-markets-slid-as-conflict-rages-179987 (Accessed: 11.02.2025)
There are 38 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Regional Economy
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Elif Özdilek 0000-0003-0907-8771

Early Pub Date June 18, 2025
Publication Date June 20, 2025
Submission Date February 11, 2025
Acceptance Date March 16, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Özdilek, E. (2025). EFFECTS OF REGIONAL WARS ON THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: THE EXAMPLE OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, 9(2), 765-782. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1637795

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