Abstract
The number of poles in the international system is one of the main questions asked by Realist approaches because the number of poles is considered as one of the factors that directly affect the behavior of states, which are like units. Whether the system is unipolar, bipolar or multipolar, combined with the anarchic nature of international relations, directly affects stability. As a matter of fact, it is natural for realism to rise and ask questions about polarity during periods of inter-state wars in the system. The Russian Federation-Ukraine War and the rise of the People's Republic of China have led to these questions being asked more frequently today. This study aims to answer a system-level question through the Annual Threat Assessment, a strategic intelligence product produced by the United States intelligence community. For this purpose, the study performs word analysis and topic modeling analysis using the Python programming language. The results of the study show that as of 2017, the United States began to incorporate great power competition into its Annual Threat Assessment, and by 2021, it accepted great power competition.
Keywords
annual threat assessment intelligence United States of America The Russian Federation People's Republic of China
References
- Asford, E. (2023, Ekim 5). Yes, the world is multipolar and that isn’t bad news for the United States. Foreign Affairs. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/
- Cooper, A. F., & Flemes, D. (2013). Foreign policy strategies of emerging powers in a multipolar world: An introductory review. Third World Quarterly, 34(6), 943-962. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2013.802501
- Did the unipolar moment ever end? Foreign affairs asks the experts. (2023, Mayıs 23). Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/did-unipolar-moment-ever-end
- Erdem, Ö. (2009). Gelenekselcilik-davranışsalcılık tartışmasını bağlamında anlamak. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(3), 197-220. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002118
- Fukuyama, F. (1989). The end of history? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.
- Keohane, Robert O. (1990). Multilateralism: An agenda for research, International journal 45(4), 731-764.
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2009). Reckless states and realism. International Relations, 23(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117809104637
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated edition) (1st ed). W. W. Norton & Company, Incorporated.
- Morgan Stanley. (2020). Five reasons for the trends towards multipolarity. https://www.morganstanley.com.au/ideas/five-reasons-for-the-trend-towards-multipolarity
- Nye, Joseph S. (1990). Soft power. Foreign policy, 80, 153-171.
- Office of The Director of National Intelligence. (t.y.). Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community. https://www.intelligence.gov/annual-threat-assessment
- Perlez, J. (2014, Kasım 30). Leader asserts china’s growing importance on global stage. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/world/asia/leader-asserts-chinas-growing-role-on-global-stage.html
- Peters, M. A. (2023). The emerging multipolar world order: A preliminary analysis. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 55(14), 1653-1663. https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2022.2151896
- Posen, B. R. (2017). Civil wars & the structure of world power. Daedalus, 146(4), 167-179. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00467
- Statista, (2025). The 20 countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20the%20United%20States,around%2018.5%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars
- The Telegraph (2014, May 23). Vladimir Putin warns sanctions on Russia will backfire on west, Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10851908/Vladimir-Putin-warns-sanctions-on-Russia-will-backfire-on-West.html
- U.S. Naval Institute. (2025, Mart 26). 2025 Annual threat assessment of the U.S. intelligence community. https://news.usni.org/2025/03/26/2025-annual-threat-assessment-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community#:~:text=The%202025%20Annual%20Threat%20Assessment,U.S.%20interests%20in%20the%20world
- Walcott, J. (2020, Mart 9). The Trump administration is stalling an intel report that warns the U.S. isn’t ready for a global pandemic. Time. https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/
- Walt, S. M. (2009). Alliances in a unipolar world. World Politics, 61(1), 86-120.
- Walt, S. (2011). The end of the American era. The National Interest, 116, 6-16.
- Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.
- Waltz, K. N. (1988). The origins of war in neorealist theory. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18(4), 615-628.
- Waltz, K. N. (1997). Evaluating theories. American Political Science Review, 91(4), 913-917. https://doi.org/10.2307/2952173
- Wohlfort, C. W., & Brooks, S. G. (2023). The myth of multipolarity: American power’s staying power. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-multipolarity-myth
- Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5-41.
- Yurlov, F. (2006). Challenges of a globalised and unipolar world. The Journal of International Issues, 10(3), 56-71.
Abstract
Uluslararası sistemin kaç kutuplu olduğu realist yaklaşımların temel sorduğu sorulardan biridir çünkü kutup sayısı birbirine benzeyen aktörler olan devletlerin davranışını doğrudan etkileyen faktörlerden biri olarak kabul edilir. Sistemin tek, iki veya çok kutuplu olması uluslararası ilişkilerin anarşik yapısıyla birleştiğinde istikrarı doğrudan etkilemektedir. Nitekim sistemde devletler arası savaşların olduğu dönemlerde realizmin yükselmesi ve kutupluluğa dair sorular sorması doğaldır. Rusya Federasyonu-Ukrayna Savaşı ve Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti’nin yükselişi günümüzde bu soruların daha sık sorulmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu çalışma sistem düzeyinde bir soruyu, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri istihbarat topluluğu tarafından stratejik düzeyde üretilen bir istihbarat ürünü olan Yıllık Tehdit Değerlendirme belgeleri üzerinden cevaplandırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaçla çalışma Python programlama dili kullanarak kelime analizi ve konu modelleme analizi gerçekleştirmektedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları 2017 yılı itibarıyla ABD’nin büyük güç rekabetini Yıllık Tehdit Değerlendirmesine taşımaya başladığı, 2021 itibariyle de büyük güç rekabetini kabul ettiğini göstermektedir.
Keywords
yıllık tehdit değerlendirme istihbarat Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Rusya Federasyonu Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti
References
- Asford, E. (2023, Ekim 5). Yes, the world is multipolar and that isn’t bad news for the United States. Foreign Affairs. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/05/usa-china-multipolar-bipolar-unipolar/
- Cooper, A. F., & Flemes, D. (2013). Foreign policy strategies of emerging powers in a multipolar world: An introductory review. Third World Quarterly, 34(6), 943-962. https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2013.802501
- Did the unipolar moment ever end? Foreign affairs asks the experts. (2023, Mayıs 23). Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ask-the-experts/did-unipolar-moment-ever-end
- Erdem, Ö. (2009). Gelenekselcilik-davranışsalcılık tartışmasını bağlamında anlamak. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64(3), 197-220. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002118
- Fukuyama, F. (1989). The end of history? The National Interest, 16, 3–18.
- Keohane, Robert O. (1990). Multilateralism: An agenda for research, International journal 45(4), 731-764.
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2009). Reckless states and realism. International Relations, 23(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047117809104637
- Mearsheimer, J. J. (2014). The tragedy of great power politics (Updated edition) (1st ed). W. W. Norton & Company, Incorporated.
- Morgan Stanley. (2020). Five reasons for the trends towards multipolarity. https://www.morganstanley.com.au/ideas/five-reasons-for-the-trend-towards-multipolarity
- Nye, Joseph S. (1990). Soft power. Foreign policy, 80, 153-171.
- Office of The Director of National Intelligence. (t.y.). Annual Threat Assessment Of The U.S. Intelligence Community. https://www.intelligence.gov/annual-threat-assessment
- Perlez, J. (2014, Kasım 30). Leader asserts china’s growing importance on global stage. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/world/asia/leader-asserts-chinas-growing-role-on-global-stage.html
- Peters, M. A. (2023). The emerging multipolar world order: A preliminary analysis. Educational Philosophy and Theory, 55(14), 1653-1663. https://doi.org/10.1080/00131857.2022.2151896
- Posen, B. R. (2017). Civil wars & the structure of world power. Daedalus, 146(4), 167-179. https://doi.org/10.1162/DAED_a_00467
- Statista, (2025). The 20 countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024. Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20the%20United%20States,around%2018.5%20trillion%20U.S.%20dollars
- The Telegraph (2014, May 23). Vladimir Putin warns sanctions on Russia will backfire on west, Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/10851908/Vladimir-Putin-warns-sanctions-on-Russia-will-backfire-on-West.html
- U.S. Naval Institute. (2025, Mart 26). 2025 Annual threat assessment of the U.S. intelligence community. https://news.usni.org/2025/03/26/2025-annual-threat-assessment-of-the-u-s-intelligence-community#:~:text=The%202025%20Annual%20Threat%20Assessment,U.S.%20interests%20in%20the%20world
- Walcott, J. (2020, Mart 9). The Trump administration is stalling an intel report that warns the U.S. isn’t ready for a global pandemic. Time. https://time.com/5799765/intelligence-report-pandemic-dangers/
- Walt, S. M. (2009). Alliances in a unipolar world. World Politics, 61(1), 86-120.
- Walt, S. (2011). The end of the American era. The National Interest, 116, 6-16.
- Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley.
- Waltz, K. N. (1988). The origins of war in neorealist theory. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18(4), 615-628.
- Waltz, K. N. (1997). Evaluating theories. American Political Science Review, 91(4), 913-917. https://doi.org/10.2307/2952173
- Wohlfort, C. W., & Brooks, S. G. (2023). The myth of multipolarity: American power’s staying power. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-multipolarity-myth
- Wohlforth, W. C. (1999). The stability of a unipolar world. International Security, 24(1), 5-41.
- Yurlov, F. (2006). Challenges of a globalised and unipolar world. The Journal of International Issues, 10(3), 56-71.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | International Security, International Relations (Other) |
| Journal Section | The Journal of Defence and War Studies June 2025 |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | June 18, 2025 |
| Submission Date | April 15, 2025 |
| Acceptance Date | May 15, 2025 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2025 Volume: 35 Issue: 1 |
