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The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 64, 341 - 361

Vildan Aygün Alıcı , Alaattin Kızıltan

Abstract

This study aims to emphasise the importance of a skilled labor force within the context of Türkiye’s Decent Work Policy. It examines the long-term relationship between non-precarious employment and broadly defined unemployment, using quarterly data from 2009 to 2023. The long-term relationship between the series, found to be stationary at the first difference, was analysed by using the Fourier-Shin cointegration test. Given the results of FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators, all results were statistically significant. It was concluded that broadly defined unemployment caused a change between 0.66% and 0.69% in non-precarious employment in the long term, and the opposite effect occurred. The study’s calculation of non-precarious employment and broadly defined unemployment variables, as well as the examination of the relationship between these two variables for the first time, makes the study original.

Keywords

Non-Precarious Employment Broadly Defined Unemployment Long-Term Relationship Fourier-Shin Cointegration Test

References

  • Alkan, H.I. (2021), “Modern Dünyanın Değişen İstihdam Örüntüleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Eğreti İstihdam”, in: M. Narin & G. Dinçer (eds.), Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Çalışma Hayatı, İstihdam ve İşsizlik (285-303), Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Amable, M.J. et al. (2001), “La precariedad laboral y su repercusión sobre la salud: conceptos y resultados preliminares de un estudio multimétodos”, Arch Prev Riesgos Labor, 4(4),169-184.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bosch, G. (2004), “Towards a New Standard Employment Relationship in Western Europe”, British Journal of Industrial Relations, 42, 617-636.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. & A. Sansó (2007), “The KPSS Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Spanish Economic Review, 9(2), 105-127.
  • Cranford, C.J. et al. (2003), “Precarious employment in the Canadian labour market: A statistical portrait”, Just Labour, 3, 6-22.
  • Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Enders, W. & J. Lee (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Engle, R.F. & C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Ferre, J.C. (2021), “Precarious work in Argentina, 2003-2017”, Latin American Perspectives, 48(6), 143-159.
  • Fleury, D. & E. Cahill (2018), Precarious Employment in Canada: An Overview, Library of Parliament.
  • Gallant, R. (1981), “On the Bias in Flexible Functional Forms and an Essentially Unbiased Form: The Flexible Fourier Form”, Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245.
  • Gorz, A. (2001), Yaşadığımız Sefalet (Çev. N. Tutal), İstanbul: Ayrıntı Yayınları.
  • Green, A.E. & I. Livanos (2015), “Involuntary Non-Standard Employment and the Economic Crisis: Regional Insights from the UK”, Regional Studies, 49(7), 1223-1235.
  • Gregory, A.W. & B.H. Hansen (1996), “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008), “Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration”, Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
  • Hipp, L. et al. (2015), “Institutions and the prevalence of nonstandard employment”, Socio-Economic Review, 13(2), 351-377.
  • ILO (2012), “From Precarious Work to Decent Work: Outcome Document to the Workers”, Symposium on Policies and Regulations to Combat Precarious Employment, Geneva: International Labour Office.
  • ILO (2022), World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022, Geneva: International Labour Office.
  • Kalleberg, A.L. (2000), “Nonstandard employment relations: Part-time, temporary, and contract work”, Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 341-365.
  • Kapetanios, G. et al. (2003), “Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Korpi, T. & H. Levin (2001), “Precarious footing: Temporary employment as a stepping stone out of unemployment in Sweden”, Work, Employment, and Society, 15(1), 127-148.
  • Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992), “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Leybourne, S. et al. (1998), “Unit Roots and Smooth Transitions”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1), 83-97.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. & D.H. Papell (1997), “Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
  • Magdoff, F. & H. Magdoff (2004), “Disposable Workers”, Monthly Review, 55(11), 18-35.
  • Maki, D. (2012), “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • Mert, M. & A.E. Çağlar (2019), Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi (1. Baskı), Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Mert, M. & A.E. Çağlar (2023), Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi (Genişletilmiş 2. Baskı), Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Narayan, P.K. & S. Popp (2010), “A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
  • Rodgers, G. (1989), “Precarious Work in Western Europe: The State of the Debate”, in: G. Rodgers & J. Rodgers (eds.), Precarious Jobs in Labour Market Regulation: The Growth of Atypical Employment in Western Europe, Geneva: International Labour Organization.
  • Shin, Y. (1994), “A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration”, Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91-115.
  • SPM (2020), Sanayide Gelişmeler ve İstihdam Eğilimleri, Temmuz 2020, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2020_07_04-IstihdamGorunumu-BasinBulteni.html>, 30.06.2022.
  • SPM (2023), Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Görünümü, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2023_05_26-EO%C4%B0O_BasinBulteni.html>, 30.06.2023.
  • SPM (2024), Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Görünümü, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2024_03_01-EO%C4%B0O_BasinBulteni.html>, 30.04.2024.
  • T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı (N/A), Onbirinci Kalkınma Planı, <https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/On_Birinci_Kalkinma_Plani-2019-2023.pdf>. 31.01.2023.
  • Temiz, H.E. (2004), “Eğreti İstihdam: İşgücü piyasasında güvencesizliğin ve istikrarsızlığın yeni yapılanması”, Çalışma ve Toplum, 2(2), 55-80.
  • Tsong, C.C. et al. (2016), “The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration”, Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
  • TÜİK (2020), İşgücü İstatistikleri Mikro Veri Seti 2019, <https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2019-33784>, 20.08.2023.
  • TÜİK (2021), Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırmasında Yapılan Düzenlemelere İlişkin Metodoloji, <https://www.tuik.gov.tr/indir/metodolojikDokumanlar/hia_metod_tr.pdf>, 20.08.2023.
  • TÜİK (2024), İşgücü İstatistikleri Mikro Veri Seti 2023, <https://www.tuik.gov.tr/media/microdata/pdf/isgucu.pdf>, 30.05.2024.
  • UNDP (N/A), Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri ve Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, <https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/tr/97dd8ca3649be413c29d277262ba059b42936fa55b8403eab9a6d45552121d1e.pdf>, 20.01.2024.
  • Vosko, L.F. (2010), “A New Approach to Regulating Temporary Agency Work in Ontario or Back to the Future?” Relations Industrielles, 65(4), 632-653.
  • Yilanci, V. (2017), “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, (27), 51-57.
  • Zivot, E. & D.W.K. Andrews (2002), “Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.

Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Önemi ve Geniş Tanımlı İşsizlik ile İlişkisi: Fourier-Shin Yaklaşımı

Year 2025, Volume: 33 Issue: 64, 341 - 361

Vildan Aygün Alıcı , Alaattin Kızıltan

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin İnsana Yakışır İş Politikası kapsamında nitelikli işgücünün önemi vurgulanmakta ve 2009-2023 dönemine ait üç aylık veriler kullanılarak eğreti olmayan istihdam ile geniş tanımlı işsizlik arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmektedir. Birinci farkta durağan olduğu bulunan seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki, Fourier Shin eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR tahmin edicilerinin sonuçlarına bakıldığında, tüm sonuçlar istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Geniş tanımlı işsizliğin uzun dönemde eğreti olmayan istihdamda %0,66 ile %0,69 arasında, ters yönde değişime neden olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Çalışmada eğreti olmayan istihdam ve geniş tanımlı işsizlik değişkenlerinin yazarlar tarafından hesaplanması ve bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin ilk kez inceleniyor olması çalışmayı özgün kılmaktadır.

Keywords

Eğreti Olmayan İstihdam Geniş Tanımlı İşsizlik Uzun Dönem İlişki Fourier-Shin Eşbütünleşme Testi

References

  • Alkan, H.I. (2021), “Modern Dünyanın Değişen İstihdam Örüntüleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Eğreti İstihdam”, in: M. Narin & G. Dinçer (eds.), Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Çalışma Hayatı, İstihdam ve İşsizlik (285-303), Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
  • Amable, M.J. et al. (2001), “La precariedad laboral y su repercusión sobre la salud: conceptos y resultados preliminares de un estudio multimétodos”, Arch Prev Riesgos Labor, 4(4),169-184.
  • Becker, R. et al. (2006), “A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bosch, G. (2004), “Towards a New Standard Employment Relationship in Western Europe”, British Journal of Industrial Relations, 42, 617-636.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. & A. Sansó (2007), “The KPSS Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Spanish Economic Review, 9(2), 105-127.
  • Cranford, C.J. et al. (2003), “Precarious employment in the Canadian labour market: A statistical portrait”, Just Labour, 3, 6-22.
  • Dickey, D.A. & W.A. Fuller (1979), “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Enders, W. & J. Lee (2012), “The Flexible Fourier Form and Dickey-Fuller Type Unit Root Tests”, Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199.
  • Engle, R.F. & C.W.J. Granger (1987), “Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
  • Ferre, J.C. (2021), “Precarious work in Argentina, 2003-2017”, Latin American Perspectives, 48(6), 143-159.
  • Fleury, D. & E. Cahill (2018), Precarious Employment in Canada: An Overview, Library of Parliament.
  • Gallant, R. (1981), “On the Bias in Flexible Functional Forms and an Essentially Unbiased Form: The Flexible Fourier Form”, Journal of Econometrics, 15(2), 211-245.
  • Gorz, A. (2001), Yaşadığımız Sefalet (Çev. N. Tutal), İstanbul: Ayrıntı Yayınları.
  • Green, A.E. & I. Livanos (2015), “Involuntary Non-Standard Employment and the Economic Crisis: Regional Insights from the UK”, Regional Studies, 49(7), 1223-1235.
  • Gregory, A.W. & B.H. Hansen (1996), “Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008), “Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration”, Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
  • Hipp, L. et al. (2015), “Institutions and the prevalence of nonstandard employment”, Socio-Economic Review, 13(2), 351-377.
  • ILO (2012), “From Precarious Work to Decent Work: Outcome Document to the Workers”, Symposium on Policies and Regulations to Combat Precarious Employment, Geneva: International Labour Office.
  • ILO (2022), World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022, Geneva: International Labour Office.
  • Kalleberg, A.L. (2000), “Nonstandard employment relations: Part-time, temporary, and contract work”, Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 341-365.
  • Kapetanios, G. et al. (2003), “Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework”, Journal of Econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Korpi, T. & H. Levin (2001), “Precarious footing: Temporary employment as a stepping stone out of unemployment in Sweden”, Work, Employment, and Society, 15(1), 127-148.
  • Kwiatkowski, D. et al. (1992), “Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root”, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • Lee, J. & M.C. Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Leybourne, S. et al. (1998), “Unit Roots and Smooth Transitions”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1), 83-97.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. & D.H. Papell (1997), “Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
  • Magdoff, F. & H. Magdoff (2004), “Disposable Workers”, Monthly Review, 55(11), 18-35.
  • Maki, D. (2012), “Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • Mert, M. & A.E. Çağlar (2019), Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi (1. Baskı), Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Mert, M. & A.E. Çağlar (2023), Eviews ve Gauss Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri Analizi (Genişletilmiş 2. Baskı), Detay Yayıncılık.
  • Narayan, P.K. & S. Popp (2010), “A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time”, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425-1438.
  • Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401.
  • Rodgers, G. (1989), “Precarious Work in Western Europe: The State of the Debate”, in: G. Rodgers & J. Rodgers (eds.), Precarious Jobs in Labour Market Regulation: The Growth of Atypical Employment in Western Europe, Geneva: International Labour Organization.
  • Shin, Y. (1994), “A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration”, Econometric Theory, 10(1), 91-115.
  • SPM (2020), Sanayide Gelişmeler ve İstihdam Eğilimleri, Temmuz 2020, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2020_07_04-IstihdamGorunumu-BasinBulteni.html>, 30.06.2022.
  • SPM (2023), Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Görünümü, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2023_05_26-EO%C4%B0O_BasinBulteni.html>, 30.06.2023.
  • SPM (2024), Eğreti Olmayan İstihdamın Görünümü, <https://spm.etu.edu.tr/publish/2024_03_01-EO%C4%B0O_BasinBulteni.html>, 30.04.2024.
  • T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı (N/A), Onbirinci Kalkınma Planı, <https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/On_Birinci_Kalkinma_Plani-2019-2023.pdf>. 31.01.2023.
  • Temiz, H.E. (2004), “Eğreti İstihdam: İşgücü piyasasında güvencesizliğin ve istikrarsızlığın yeni yapılanması”, Çalışma ve Toplum, 2(2), 55-80.
  • Tsong, C.C. et al. (2016), “The Fourier Approximation and Testing for the Null of Cointegration”, Empirical Economics, 51(3), 1085-1113.
  • TÜİK (2020), İşgücü İstatistikleri Mikro Veri Seti 2019, <https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2019-33784>, 20.08.2023.
  • TÜİK (2021), Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırmasında Yapılan Düzenlemelere İlişkin Metodoloji, <https://www.tuik.gov.tr/indir/metodolojikDokumanlar/hia_metod_tr.pdf>, 20.08.2023.
  • TÜİK (2024), İşgücü İstatistikleri Mikro Veri Seti 2023, <https://www.tuik.gov.tr/media/microdata/pdf/isgucu.pdf>, 30.05.2024.
  • UNDP (N/A), Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Hedefleri ve Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, <https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/tr/97dd8ca3649be413c29d277262ba059b42936fa55b8403eab9a6d45552121d1e.pdf>, 20.01.2024.
  • Vosko, L.F. (2010), “A New Approach to Regulating Temporary Agency Work in Ontario or Back to the Future?” Relations Industrielles, 65(4), 632-653.
  • Yilanci, V. (2017), “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, (27), 51-57.
  • Zivot, E. & D.W.K. Andrews (2002), “Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20(1), 25-44.
There are 47 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Employment
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Vildan Aygün Alıcı 0000-0003-3199-2201

Alaattin Kızıltan 0000-0002-7239-7874

Early Pub Date April 14, 2025
Publication Date
Submission Date August 6, 2024
Acceptance Date March 30, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 33 Issue: 64

Cite

APA Aygün Alıcı, V., & Kızıltan, A. (2025). The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach. Sosyoekonomi, 33(64), 341-361.
AMA Aygün Alıcı V, Kızıltan A. The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach. Sosyoekonomi. April 2025;33(64):341-361.
Chicago Aygün Alıcı, Vildan, and Alaattin Kızıltan. “The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship With Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach”. Sosyoekonomi 33, no. 64 (April 2025): 341-61.
EndNote Aygün Alıcı V, Kızıltan A (April 1, 2025) The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach. Sosyoekonomi 33 64 341–361.
IEEE V. Aygün Alıcı and A. Kızıltan, “The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 33, no. 64, pp. 341–361, 2025.
ISNAD Aygün Alıcı, Vildan - Kızıltan, Alaattin. “The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship With Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach”. Sosyoekonomi 33/64 (April 2025), 341-361.
JAMA Aygün Alıcı V, Kızıltan A. The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach. Sosyoekonomi. 2025;33:341–361.
MLA Aygün Alıcı, Vildan and Alaattin Kızıltan. “The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship With Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 33, no. 64, 2025, pp. 341-6.
Vancouver Aygün Alıcı V, Kızıltan A. The Importance of Non-Precarious Employment and Its Relationship with Broadly Defined Unemployment: Fourier-Shin Approach. Sosyoekonomi. 2025;33(64):341-6.