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Döviz Kurları, Petrol Fiyatları ve Küresel Belirsizliklerin Türkiye’nin Turizm Talebi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Kantil Analiz Yaklaşımı ile Belirlenmesi

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 181 - 193, 17.06.2025

Barış Ülker

Abstract

Turizm, önemli katkılarıyla Türkiye ekonomisi için hayati bir değer taşımakla birlikte, makroekonomik ve jeopolitik unsurlara karşı da oldukça hassastır. Bu çalışmada Reel Efektif Döviz Kurunun (REDK), Brent petrol varil fiyatının ve Dünya Belirsizlik Endeksi’nin (DBE) 2003:Ç1-2024:Ç3 döneminde, Türkiye’nin toplam seyahat gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. Farklı kantillerdeki uzun dönemli ve kısa dönemli heterojen etkilerin belirlenebilmesi için Kantil Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme modeli kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre hem REDK hem de petrol fiyatları uzun dönemde ve üst kantillerde seyahat gelirlerini etkilerken, kısa dönemde tüm kantillerde etkisizdir. Seyahat gelirleri üzerinde REDK negatif etki gösterirken, petrol fiyatları ise pozitif etki göstermiştir. DBE ise, seyahat gelirleri üzerinde, tüm kantillerde ne kısa dönemde ne de uzun dönemde anlamlı bir etki göstermiştir. Söz konusu sonuçlar, Türkiye’ye olan turizm talebinin sürdürülebilirliği için döviz kuru rekabetçiliğinin korunmasının ve petrol fiyatı dalgalanmalarının izlenmesinin kritik olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, politikalar, değişkenlerin kısa dönemde etkisiz olduğu göz önünde bulundurularak uzun döneme odaklanmalıdır.

Keywords

Turizm Talebi Döviz Kurları Petrol Fiyatları Küresel Belirsizlik

Ethical Statement

Bu araştırma etik kurul kararı gerektirmeyen araştırmalar arasındadır.

References

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Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 181 - 193, 17.06.2025

Barış Ülker

Abstract

Tourism is a vital sector for Türkiye’s economy with its significant contributions, however, it is highly sensitive to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. This study examines the impact of Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER), Brent crude oil prices and the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) on Türkiye’s travel income from 2003:Q1 to 2024:Q3. The Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is used to analyze both short and long-run effects across different quantiles to capture heterogeneous impacts. The results indicate that both REER and oil prices affects travel incomes in the long-run at upper quantiles however, they do not affect travel incomes in the short-run at any quantiles. The effects of the REER are negative while oil prices affect travel incomes positively. WUI shows a significant impact on tourism demand neither in long-run, nor in short-run at any quantiles. These findings reveal that keeping the exchange rate competitive and monitoring oil price fluctuations is crucial to maintain sustainable tourism demand for Türkiye Also, the policies should focus on long-term as temporary changes does not create significant effects.

Keywords

Tourism Demand Exchange Rates Oil Prices Global Uncertainty

Ethical Statement

This research is among the researches that do not require an ethics committee decision.

References

  • Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2014). Exchange rate volatility and tourist flows into Turkey. Journal of Economic Integration, 700-725. https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2014.29.4.700
  • Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2018). The World Uncertainty Index. SSRN, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3275033
  • Akdağ, S., Kılıç, İ., Gürlek, M., & Alola, A. A. (2023). Does economic policy uncertainty drive outbound tourism expenditures in 20 selected destinations?. Quality & Quantity, 57(5), 4327-4337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01538-y
  • Al-Mulali, U., Gholipour, H. F., & Al-hajj, E. (2020). The nonlinear effects of oil prices on tourism arrivals in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(8), pp. 942-946. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1586844
  • Arezki, R., Jakab, Z., Laxton, D., Matsumoto, A., Nurbekyan, A., Wang, H., & Yao, J. (2017). Oil Prices and the Global Economy. WP/17/15, International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/01/27/Oil-Prices-and-the-Global-Economy-44594
  • Becken, S. (2011). A Critical Review of Tourism and Oil. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(2), pp. 359-379. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.10.005
  • Becken, S., & Lennox, J. (2012). Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism. Tourism Management, 33(1), pp. 133-142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2011.02.012
  • Behsudi, A. (2020). Wish You Were Here. International Monatery Fund. Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/Fandd/Article/2020/December/impact-of-the-pandemic-on-tourism-behsudi.ashx
  • Belloumi, M. (2010). The relationship between tourism receipts, real effective exchange rate, and economic growth in Tunisia. Journal of Tourism Research, 12(6), pp. 550-560. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.774
  • Bozdereli, A. A., & Aker, H. A. (2023). Tourism Revenues and Energy Prices: A Dynamic Panel Analysis. Trends in Business and Economics, 37(4), pp. 226-236. https://doi.org/10.5152/TBE.2023.22102
  • Cho, J. S., Kim, T. H., & Shin, Y. (2015). Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework. Journal of Econometrics, 188(1), pp. 281- 300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2015.05.003
  • Coibion, O., Georgarakos, D., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kenny, G., & Weber, M. (2024). The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending. American Economic Review, 114(3), pp. 645-677. DOI:10.1257/aer.20221167
  • Crouch, G. I. (1994). The study of international tourism demand: A survey of practice. Journal of Travel research, 32(4), 41-55. https://doi.org/10.1177/00472875940320040
  • Darvas, Z. (2021). Timely Measurement of Real Effective Exchange Rates. Working Paper 15/2021,Bruegel. Retrieved from: https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/private/wp_attachments/WP-2021-15-231221-1.pdf
  • Davut, M. & Ünal, E. C. (2025). Türkiye'nin turizm geliri 2024'te tüm zamanların rekorunu kırdı. Anadolu Ajansı. https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/turkiyenin-turizm-geliri-2024te-tum-zamanlarin-rekorunu-kirdi/3467550#:~:text=T%C3%BCrkiye'nin%20turizm%20geliri%2C%202024,dolar%20%C3%A7%C4%B1karak%2C%20rekor%20seviyeye%20ula%C5%9Ft%C4%B1.
  • Dhaoui, A., Sekrafi, H., & Ghandri, M. (2017). Tourism demand, oil price fluctuation, exchange rate and economic growth: Evidence from ARDL model and Rolling window Granger causality for Tunisia. Journal of Economic and Social Studies, 7(1), pp. 5-27. http://dx.doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS17712
  • Dragouni, M., Filis, G., Gavriilidis, K., & Santamaria, S. (2016). Sentiment, Mood and Outbound Tourism Demand. Annals of Tourism Research, 60 (1), 80–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.06.004
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Cointegration analysis of German and British tourism demand for Greece. Tourism Management, 25(1), pp. 111-119. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5177(03)00061-X
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty. (n.d.). World Uncertainty Index (WUI). Economic Policy Uncertainty. Retrieved from: https://www.policyuncertainty.com/wui_quarterly.html
  • Findley, D. F., Monsell, B. C., Bell, W. R., Otto, M. C., & Chen, B.-C. (1998). New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16(2), 127–152. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392565
  • Gözgör, G., & Ongan, S. (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and tourism demand: empirical evidence from the USA. International Journal of Tourism Research, 19(1), pp. 99-106. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2089
  • Gözgör, G., Seetaram, N., & Lau, C. K. M. (2021). Effect of global uncertainty on international arrivals by purpose of visits and length of stay. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(6), 1086-1098. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2464
  • Hesami, S., Rustamov, B., Rjoub, H., & Wong, W. K. (2020). Implications of oil price fluctuations for tourism receipts: the case of oil exporting countries. Energies, 13(17), 4349. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13174349
  • Heydarian, S., Rafiy, H., Hajian, M., & Rahnam, A. (2018). The impact of oil price fluctuations on tourism demands of OECD countries. Tourism Today, 17, pp. 163-180.
  • Hüseyni, İ., Tunç, A., & Çelik, A. K. (2022). The non-linear effect of relative real foreign exchange rates on international tourism demand in Turkey: A panel threshold modeling approach. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(2), pp. 526-541. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7512133
  • Irandoust, M. (2019). On the relation between exchange rates and tourism demand: A nonlinear and asymmetric analysis. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 20, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeca.2019.e00123
  • Kanca, O. C. (2015). Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Örneği (1980-2013). The Journal of Marmara Social Research (8), pp. 2-14.
  • Kisswani, K. M., Zaitouni, M., & Moufakkir, O. (2020). An examination of the asymmetric effect of oil prices on tourism receipts. Current Issues in Tourism, 23(4), pp. 500-522. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2019.1629578
  • Kizilkaya, O., Kocak, E., Ulug, E. E., & Yucel, A. G. (2024). Pandemic‐induced uncertainty and tourism demand: Evidence on the moderator effect of democratic institutions. International Journal of Tourism Research, e2725, pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2725
  • Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), pp. 33–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
  • Koenker, R., & Hallock, K. F. (2001). Quantile Regression. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15 (4), pp. 143–156. doi:10.1257/jep.15.4.143
  • Lim, C. (1997). Review of international tourism demand models. Annals of tourism research, 24(4), 835-849. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00049-2
  • Loganathan, N., Streimikiene, D., Mursitama, T. N., Shahbaz, M., & Mardani, A. (2018). How real oil prices and domestic financial instabilities are good for GCC countries tourism demand in Malaysia?. Economics and Sociology., 11(2), pp. 112-125.
  • Manrique-de-Lara-Peñate, C., Gallego, M. S., & Valle, E. V. (2022). The economic impact of global uncertainty and security threats on international tourism. Economic Modelling, 113, 105892, pp 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105892
  • Meo, M. S., Chowdhury, M. A. F., Shaikh, G. M., Ali, M., & Masood Sheikh, S. (2018). Asymmetric impact of oil prices, exchange rate, and inflation on tourism demand in Pakistan: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(4), pp. 408-422. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1445652
  • Navarro-Chávez, J. C. L., Gómez, M., & Marín-Leyva, R. A. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and tourism demand of OECD countries in Mexico. Tourism Analysis, 27(3), pp. 317-330. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354222X16557883993261
  • Nguyen, C. P., Thanh, S. D., & Nguyen, B. (2022). Economic uncertainty and tourism consumption. Tourism Economics, 28(4), 920-941. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816620981519
  • Ongan, S., Işık, C., & Özdemir, D. (2017). The effects of real exchange rates and income on international tourism demand for the USA from some European Union countries. Economies, 5(4), 51. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5040051
  • Payne, J. E., Topcu, M., Hajille, M., & Niroomand, F. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty shocks and US overseas travel. The International Trade Journal, 35(1), 115-122. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2020.1799887
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289–326. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
  • Rathnayake, G. I. (2018). Effect of exchange rate volatility on Sri Lanka's inbound tourist flow. Staff Studies, 48(2), pp. 41-83.
  • Santana-Gallego, M., Ledesma-Rodríguez, F. J., & Pérez-Rodríguez, J. V. (2011). Tourism and trade in OECD countries: A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. Empirical Economics, 41(2), 533–554. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0477-9
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There are 52 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Tourism (Other)
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Barış Ülker 0000-0002-6860-8210

Publication Date June 17, 2025
Submission Date February 13, 2025
Acceptance Date April 22, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ülker, B. (2025). Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, 12(1), 181-193.
AMA Ülker B. Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. June 2025;12(1):181-193.
Chicago Ülker, Barış. “Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand With a Quantile Analysis Approach”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 12, no. 1 (June 2025): 181-93.
EndNote Ülker B (June 1, 2025) Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 12 1 181–193.
IEEE B. Ülker, “Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach”, Turizm Akademik Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 181–193, 2025.
ISNAD Ülker, Barış. “Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand With a Quantile Analysis Approach”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi 12/1 (June 2025), 181-193.
JAMA Ülker B. Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. 2025;12:181–193.
MLA Ülker, Barış. “Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand With a Quantile Analysis Approach”. Turizm Akademik Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 1, 2025, pp. 181-93.
Vancouver Ülker B. Assessing the Effects of Exchange Rates, Oil Prices and Global Uncertainty on Türkiye’s Tourism Demand with a Quantile Analysis Approach. Turizm Akademik Dergisi. 2025;12(1):181-93.
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