Research Article
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Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 802 - 811, 23.07.2025

Mustafa Baylan

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1671772

Abstract

References

  • Akcan, A. T., Kurt, Ü. & Kılıç, C. (2022). Effects of climate change on agricultural sector in Türkiye: ARDL bounds test approach. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(1), 125-132. DOI: 10.54614/TBE.2022.992490.
  • Anh, N. T., Gan, C. & Anh, D.L.T. (2020). Does credit boost agricultural performance? Evidence fromVietnam, International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(9), pages 1203-1221, August. Ay, A., & Yapar, S. (2005). Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Tarım Anlaşması Ve Türkiye. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(13), 57-80.
  • Bonanno, Alessandro (2016) “The Financialization of Agriculture and Food in the Context of the Neoliberal Restructuring: Primary Characteristics and Basic Contradictions.” Estudios Rurales, 6 (10), 1-17. http://ppct.caicyt.gov.ar/index.php/estudios-rurales/article/view/9872.
  • BIST (Borsa İstanbul) (2025). https://www.borsaistanbul.com/en/index-detail/162/bist-food-beverage
  • Brunetti, C., Büyükşahin, B. & Harris, J.H. (2016), “Speculators, prices, and market volatility”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 51 No. 5, pp. 1545-1574, doi: 10.1017/ s0022109016000569.
  • Chisasa, J., & Makina, D. (2015). Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In South Africa: Cointegration, Short Run Dynamics And Causality. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 31(2), 489–500.
  • Clapp, J., Desmarais, A., & Margulis, M. (2015). Mapping the state of play on the global food landscape. Canadian Food Studies La Revue Canadienne Des études Sur l’alimentation, 2(2), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.15353/cfs-rcea.v2i2.103.
  • Denizbank (2023). 2023 Entegre Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.denizbank.com/medium/document-file-8778.vsf. Dereci, Ş. (2023). Osmanlı Döneminde Ziraat Bankası’nın Tarım Dışı Uygulamaları. Vakanüvis-Uluslararası Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8 (1) , 415- 458.
  • Dickey, D. &Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Emam, A. A. (2020). The Impacts of Covid-19: An Econometric Analysis of Crude Oil Prices and Rice Prices in the World. AlinteriJournal of Agriculture Sciences, 35(2): 137-143. doi: 10.47059/alinteri/V35I2/AJAS20085
  • Epstein, G.A. (Ed.). (2005), Financialization and the World Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
  • Farooq U., Chandio A.& Guan, Z. (2024). Can board funds, bank credit, and economic development improve food production? Evidence from South Asia, Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 84(2/3), pages 143-164, May.
  • Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to understand high food prices. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(2), 398–425.
  • Grivins, M., Thorsøe M. H. &Maye, D. (2021). Financial subjectivities in the agricultural sector: A comparative analysis of relations between farmers and banks in Latvia, Denmark and the UK, Journal of Rural Studies, Volume 86, August 2021, Pages 117-126.
  • Hartarska, V., Nadolnyak, D. & Shen,X. (2015). Agricultural credit and economic growth in rural areas, Agricultural Finance Review, Vol. 75 Issue: 3, pp.302-312, https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-04-2015-0018.
  • Hüsnüoğlu, N. & Durkaya, M. (2023). The relationship between interest rate and investment: An analysis on the Turkish economy. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 664, 9-32.
  • Irwin, S. H., & Sanders, D. R. (2011). Index funds, financialization, and commodity futures markets. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 33(1), 1–31.
  • Karaman, S. Ve Yavuz, C.F.,(2016). Marshall Planı Türkiye Tarımının Gelişmesinde Nasıl Rol Oynamıştır?, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt/Vol. XXXV, Sayı/No. 1, 2016, pp. 1-14.
  • Kochar, A.(1997). An empirical investigation of rationing constraints in rural credit markets in India, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 339-371, August.
  • Lee, Daemyung, Le Chen, Roderick M. Rejesus, Serkan Aglasan,Robert Dinterman, and Lawson Connor. 2024. “The effect of crop insurance on agriculturalloan delinquencies.” Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. 3: 256–74.https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.109274.
  • Manogna R. L. & Kulkarni, N. (2024). "Does The Financialization Of Agricultural Commodities İmpact Food Security? An Empirical İnvestigation," Borsa Istanbul Review 24 (2024) 280–291.
  • Meressa, H.A. (2017). An Econometric Analysis of the Nexus Between Banks’Sub-Sectoral Credit Allocation and Operating Profit: Evidence from Private Commercial Banks in Ethiopia, Developing Country Studies www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
  • Nakazi, F. & Sunday, N. (2020). The Effect of Commercial Banks’ Agricultural Credit on Agricultural growth in Uganda, African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(01), January.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Nawaz A. (2011). Impact of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Output: A Case Study of Pakistan,Theoretical and Applied Economics, Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XVIII (2011), No. 10(563), pp. 99-120.
  • Ogbuabor, J. E., & Nwosu, C. A. (2017). The Impact of Deposit Money Bank’s Agricultural Credit on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: Evidence from an Error Correction Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 513-517.
  • Orak, Ç., (2022). Tarımsal Finansallaşma Fındık Üreticilerinin Kredi Kullanımı: Giresun İli Örneği, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, s.166.
  • Peng, Y., Latief, R. & Zhou, Y. (2021). The Relationship between Agricultural Credit, Regional Agricultural Growth, and Economic Development: The Role of Rural Commercial Banks in Jiangsu, China, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 1878-1889, May.
  • Pesaran M. H.ashem & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. DOI: 10.1002/jae.616.
  • Phillips, P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for unit roots in time series regression. Journal of Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. pp. 517-532, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aat098.
  • Reyes, A. & Lensink, R.t & Kuyvenhoven, A. & Moll, H. (2012). Impact of Access to Credit on Farm Productivity of Fruit and Vegetable Growers in Chile, 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126217, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Sawyer, M. (2013) “What is financialization?”, International Journal of Political Economy, 42 (4), 5–18.
  • SBB (2025). TC Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı, Birinci Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1963-1967) Ankara,535s,https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wpcontent/uploads/2022/07/Kalkinma_Plani_Birinci_Bes_Yillik_1963-1967.pdf.
  • SBB (2025a) İkinci Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1968-1972) Ankara, 665s.
  • https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Ikinci_Bes_Kalkinma_Plani-1968-1972.pdf.
  • SBB (2025b)Üçüncü Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1973-1977) Ankara, 1077s.
  • https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Yeni-Strateji-ve-Kalkinma-Plani_Ucuncu-Bes-Yil_1973_1977.pdf.
  • SBB (2025c) Dördüncü Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1979-1983) Ankara, 699s.https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Dorduncu-Bes-Yillik-Kalkinma-Plani_1979_1983.pdf.
  • Shuaibu, M. & Nchake, M. (2021). Impact of credit market conditions on agriculture productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(4), pages 520-534, January.
  • Sial, M. H., Awan, M. S. & Waqas, M. (2011). Role of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Production: A Time Series Analysis of Pakistan, MPRA Paper 31815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Sosoo, V.E., Okorie, D.I. & Chen H. (2021) Roles of commodity futures derivatives and financial crises in global food security, Economic and Political Studies, 9:3, 336-357, DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2021.1872854.
  • Stephens, P. & Hinton, L. (2024). Food Crises In The Third Food Regime: An Exploratory Frame Analysis Of Mainstream Governance Responses. Agriculture And Human Values (2025) 42:69–88.
  • TARSİM (2020). Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.tarsim.gov.tr/dergi/faaliyet-raporlari/2020.
  • TARSİM (2024). Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.tarsim.gov.tr/dergi/faaliyet-raporlari/2024.
  • TMEX (Turkish Mercantile Exchange) (2024). Annual Bulletin, https://www.turib.com.tr/wpcontent/uploads/2025/01/TURIB_Yillik-Bulten_2024.pdf.
  • Türkiye Bankalar Birliği (2025). https://www.tbb.org.tr/, 15.02.2025.
  • Vercammen, J. &Doroudian, A. (2014), “Portfolio speculation and commodity price volatility in a stochastic storage model”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 96 No. 2, Vol.7, No.4, 2017.
  • WB (Dünya Bankası) (2025). Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/view=chart 15.02.2025.
  • Yükseler, Z. (1999). Tarımsal Destekleme Politikaları Ve Doğrudan Gelir Desteği Sisteminin Değerlendirilmesi,https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259081619.

The Impact of Agricultural Financialization on Agricultural Output: The Case of Türkiye

Year 2025, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 802 - 811, 23.07.2025

Mustafa Baylan

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1671772

Abstract

The primary purpose of the present study is to examine the impact of agricultural financialization on agricultural output in Türkiye. The reference period of the research consisted of 1994-2023 period. Variables were created with dataset of the Banks Association of Türkiye and the World Bank. In the empirical model, agriculture, forestry and fishing value added (% of GDP) (AGRVD) was selected as the dependent variable to represent agricultural output and agricultural specialized loans provided by banks (% of GDP) (AGRCD) was determined as the independent variable to represent agricultural financialization. Additionally, exports of goods and services (% of GDP) (XGS) was included in the model as a control variable. Standard diagnostic tests were used to determine the properties of the data. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to estimate long and short run relationship respectively. The study found that agricultural financialization has a significant impact on agricultural output in Türkiye. It was found that series in the empirical model were cointegrated. Furthermore, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) test results, conducted to verify the accuracy of the findings, indicated that a 1% increase in AGRCRD led to a 1.73% increase in AGRVD, while a similar increase in XGS resulted in a 0.36% decrease in AGRVD. In the direction of the evidence, this study recommends continuing policies that facilitate access to credit and other financial instruments for the agricultural sector to enhance agricultural output. The study recommends continuing policies that facilitate access to credit and other financial instruments for the agricultural sector to enhance agricultural output.

Keywords

Agricultural financialization agricultural output Türkiye.

References

  • Akcan, A. T., Kurt, Ü. & Kılıç, C. (2022). Effects of climate change on agricultural sector in Türkiye: ARDL bounds test approach. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(1), 125-132. DOI: 10.54614/TBE.2022.992490.
  • Anh, N. T., Gan, C. & Anh, D.L.T. (2020). Does credit boost agricultural performance? Evidence fromVietnam, International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(9), pages 1203-1221, August. Ay, A., & Yapar, S. (2005). Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Tarım Anlaşması Ve Türkiye. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi(13), 57-80.
  • Bonanno, Alessandro (2016) “The Financialization of Agriculture and Food in the Context of the Neoliberal Restructuring: Primary Characteristics and Basic Contradictions.” Estudios Rurales, 6 (10), 1-17. http://ppct.caicyt.gov.ar/index.php/estudios-rurales/article/view/9872.
  • BIST (Borsa İstanbul) (2025). https://www.borsaistanbul.com/en/index-detail/162/bist-food-beverage
  • Brunetti, C., Büyükşahin, B. & Harris, J.H. (2016), “Speculators, prices, and market volatility”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 51 No. 5, pp. 1545-1574, doi: 10.1017/ s0022109016000569.
  • Chisasa, J., & Makina, D. (2015). Bank Credit And Agricultural Output In South Africa: Cointegration, Short Run Dynamics And Causality. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 31(2), 489–500.
  • Clapp, J., Desmarais, A., & Margulis, M. (2015). Mapping the state of play on the global food landscape. Canadian Food Studies La Revue Canadienne Des études Sur l’alimentation, 2(2), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.15353/cfs-rcea.v2i2.103.
  • Denizbank (2023). 2023 Entegre Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.denizbank.com/medium/document-file-8778.vsf. Dereci, Ş. (2023). Osmanlı Döneminde Ziraat Bankası’nın Tarım Dışı Uygulamaları. Vakanüvis-Uluslararası Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8 (1) , 415- 458.
  • Dickey, D. &Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Emam, A. A. (2020). The Impacts of Covid-19: An Econometric Analysis of Crude Oil Prices and Rice Prices in the World. AlinteriJournal of Agriculture Sciences, 35(2): 137-143. doi: 10.47059/alinteri/V35I2/AJAS20085
  • Epstein, G.A. (Ed.). (2005), Financialization and the World Economy, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham.
  • Farooq U., Chandio A.& Guan, Z. (2024). Can board funds, bank credit, and economic development improve food production? Evidence from South Asia, Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 84(2/3), pages 143-164, May.
  • Gilbert, C. L. (2010). How to understand high food prices. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(2), 398–425.
  • Grivins, M., Thorsøe M. H. &Maye, D. (2021). Financial subjectivities in the agricultural sector: A comparative analysis of relations between farmers and banks in Latvia, Denmark and the UK, Journal of Rural Studies, Volume 86, August 2021, Pages 117-126.
  • Hartarska, V., Nadolnyak, D. & Shen,X. (2015). Agricultural credit and economic growth in rural areas, Agricultural Finance Review, Vol. 75 Issue: 3, pp.302-312, https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-04-2015-0018.
  • Hüsnüoğlu, N. & Durkaya, M. (2023). The relationship between interest rate and investment: An analysis on the Turkish economy. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 664, 9-32.
  • Irwin, S. H., & Sanders, D. R. (2011). Index funds, financialization, and commodity futures markets. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 33(1), 1–31.
  • Karaman, S. Ve Yavuz, C.F.,(2016). Marshall Planı Türkiye Tarımının Gelişmesinde Nasıl Rol Oynamıştır?, Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt/Vol. XXXV, Sayı/No. 1, 2016, pp. 1-14.
  • Kochar, A.(1997). An empirical investigation of rationing constraints in rural credit markets in India, Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 339-371, August.
  • Lee, Daemyung, Le Chen, Roderick M. Rejesus, Serkan Aglasan,Robert Dinterman, and Lawson Connor. 2024. “The effect of crop insurance on agriculturalloan delinquencies.” Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. 3: 256–74.https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.109274.
  • Manogna R. L. & Kulkarni, N. (2024). "Does The Financialization Of Agricultural Commodities İmpact Food Security? An Empirical İnvestigation," Borsa Istanbul Review 24 (2024) 280–291.
  • Meressa, H.A. (2017). An Econometric Analysis of the Nexus Between Banks’Sub-Sectoral Credit Allocation and Operating Profit: Evidence from Private Commercial Banks in Ethiopia, Developing Country Studies www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
  • Nakazi, F. & Sunday, N. (2020). The Effect of Commercial Banks’ Agricultural Credit on Agricultural growth in Uganda, African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(01), January.
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103.
  • Nawaz A. (2011). Impact of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Output: A Case Study of Pakistan,Theoretical and Applied Economics, Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XVIII (2011), No. 10(563), pp. 99-120.
  • Ogbuabor, J. E., & Nwosu, C. A. (2017). The Impact of Deposit Money Bank’s Agricultural Credit on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: Evidence from an Error Correction Model. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(2), 513-517.
  • Orak, Ç., (2022). Tarımsal Finansallaşma Fındık Üreticilerinin Kredi Kullanımı: Giresun İli Örneği, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yüksek Lisans Tezi, s.166.
  • Peng, Y., Latief, R. & Zhou, Y. (2021). The Relationship between Agricultural Credit, Regional Agricultural Growth, and Economic Development: The Role of Rural Commercial Banks in Jiangsu, China, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(7), pages 1878-1889, May.
  • Pesaran M. H.ashem & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. DOI: 10.1002/jae.616.
  • Phillips, P. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for unit roots in time series regression. Journal of Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. pp. 517-532, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aat098.
  • Reyes, A. & Lensink, R.t & Kuyvenhoven, A. & Moll, H. (2012). Impact of Access to Credit on Farm Productivity of Fruit and Vegetable Growers in Chile, 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126217, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Sawyer, M. (2013) “What is financialization?”, International Journal of Political Economy, 42 (4), 5–18.
  • SBB (2025). TC Cumhurbaşkanlığı Strateji ve Bütçe Başkanlığı, Birinci Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1963-1967) Ankara,535s,https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wpcontent/uploads/2022/07/Kalkinma_Plani_Birinci_Bes_Yillik_1963-1967.pdf.
  • SBB (2025a) İkinci Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1968-1972) Ankara, 665s.
  • https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Ikinci_Bes_Kalkinma_Plani-1968-1972.pdf.
  • SBB (2025b)Üçüncü Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1973-1977) Ankara, 1077s.
  • https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Yeni-Strateji-ve-Kalkinma-Plani_Ucuncu-Bes-Yil_1973_1977.pdf.
  • SBB (2025c) Dördüncü Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı (1979-1983) Ankara, 699s.https://www.sbb.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Dorduncu-Bes-Yillik-Kalkinma-Plani_1979_1983.pdf.
  • Shuaibu, M. & Nchake, M. (2021). Impact of credit market conditions on agriculture productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa, Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 81(4), pages 520-534, January.
  • Sial, M. H., Awan, M. S. & Waqas, M. (2011). Role of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Production: A Time Series Analysis of Pakistan, MPRA Paper 31815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Sosoo, V.E., Okorie, D.I. & Chen H. (2021) Roles of commodity futures derivatives and financial crises in global food security, Economic and Political Studies, 9:3, 336-357, DOI: 10.1080/20954816.2021.1872854.
  • Stephens, P. & Hinton, L. (2024). Food Crises In The Third Food Regime: An Exploratory Frame Analysis Of Mainstream Governance Responses. Agriculture And Human Values (2025) 42:69–88.
  • TARSİM (2020). Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.tarsim.gov.tr/dergi/faaliyet-raporlari/2020.
  • TARSİM (2024). Faaliyet Raporu, https://www.tarsim.gov.tr/dergi/faaliyet-raporlari/2024.
  • TMEX (Turkish Mercantile Exchange) (2024). Annual Bulletin, https://www.turib.com.tr/wpcontent/uploads/2025/01/TURIB_Yillik-Bulten_2024.pdf.
  • Türkiye Bankalar Birliği (2025). https://www.tbb.org.tr/, 15.02.2025.
  • Vercammen, J. &Doroudian, A. (2014), “Portfolio speculation and commodity price volatility in a stochastic storage model”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 96 No. 2, Vol.7, No.4, 2017.
  • WB (Dünya Bankası) (2025). Employment in agriculture (% of total employment) (modeled ILO estimate). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/view=chart 15.02.2025.
  • Yükseler, Z. (1999). Tarımsal Destekleme Politikaları Ve Doğrudan Gelir Desteği Sisteminin Değerlendirilmesi,https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259081619.
There are 49 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Agricultural Policy
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Mustafa Baylan 0000-0001-8604-4634

Publication Date July 23, 2025
Submission Date April 8, 2025
Acceptance Date May 29, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 12 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Baylan, M. (2025). The Impact of Agricultural Financialization on Agricultural Output: The Case of Türkiye. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 12(3), 802-811. https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1671772
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