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Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 81 - 93, 30.06.2025

İkra Rumeysa Aksu , Göker Kuruderse , Ayşe Nur Altın , Onur Derse

https://doi.org/10.47897/bilmes.1666752

Öz

Today, rapid population growth, industrialization, and energy consumption cause a serious increase in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This increase poses significant threats to environmental sustainability, human health, and ecosystem balance. This study aims to examine Türkiye's greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1990–2021 based on energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, and waste sectors; to make forward-looking estimates for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O gases, and to analyze the risks associated with these emissions. In the study, emission estimates were made using Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA models from time series analysis methods. ARIMA (1,1,1) model provided more accurate forecasts with low error rates, and it was observed that the highest increase was in CO₂ emissions, and it was determined that especially the energy sector made the main contribution to this increase. Regular increases were also detected in CH₄ and N₂O gases. Following the estimation results, risk factors for the environmental and social impacts of greenhouse gases were defined. Risk factors were determined by literature review and expert opinions; Health problems caused by CO₂, ecosystem damage, and risks such as access to drinking water have been identified as priority threats. The impact of N₂O on the ozone layer and the consequences of CH₄ on agriculture and livestock are also prominent findings. As a result, it is seen that sectoral greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye will continue to increase with the current trend, and especially the energy and agriculture sectors play leading roles in this increase. This situation reveals the need for urgent interventions in terms of greenhouse gas control and climate policies at the national level. The study is an important guide for policymakers, environmental planners, and academic researchers in terms of both emission estimation and risk analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Greenhouse gas emissions ARIMA method exponential smoothing method risk analysis

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, TÜBİTAK tarafından 1919B012221351 numaralı 2209-A Üniversite Ögrencileri Arastırma Projeleri Destekleme Programı kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Ç. Köne and T. Büke, “Forecasting of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 2906–2915, 2010.
  • Gowrisankar et al., “Greenhouse gas emissions: A rapid submerge of the world,” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 32, no. 6, p. 061104, 2022.
  • D. P. Singh and N. S. Maurya, “A comparative study of the various methodologies for estimation of greenhouse gas emission from wastewater treatment systems,” Oriental Journal of Chemistry, vol. 32, no. 3, p. 1373, 2016.
  • M. Kour, “Modelling and forecasting of carbon-dioxide emissions in South Africa by using ARIMA model,” International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, pp. 1–8, 2022.
  • M. Dritsaki, “Forecasting European Union CO₂ emissions using autoregressive integrated moving average-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models,” 670216917, pp. 411–423, 2020.
  • U. Mander, K. Sohar, J. Tournebize, and J. Parn, “Risk analysis of global warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions from natural sources,” International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 181–192, 2016.
  • Dünya Enerji Konseyi Türk Milli Komitesi, Enerji Raporu 2013, Ankara, 2013.
  • S. Erdoğan, “Enerji, çevre ve sera gazları,” Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 277–303, 2020.
  • B. Davarcıoğlu and A. Lelik, “Sanayide iklim değişikliğine uyum ve eko-verimlilik (temiz üretim) programı: Örnek uygulamalar,” Mesleki Bilimler Dergisi (MBD), vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 94–105, 2017.
  • D. Alper and A. Anbar, “İklim değişikliğinin finansal hizmet sektörüne etkileri,” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 23, pp. 223–253, 2008.
  • J. P. Romero and C. Gramkow, “Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions,” World Development, vol. 139, p. 105317, 2021.
  • G. Şahin and H. G. Önder, “Atık yönetimi, sera gazı emisyonları ve Türkiye: Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı çerçevesinde bir değerlendirme,” Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, pp. 194–216, 2021.
  • N. Ahsan, K. Hewage, F. Razi, S. A. Hussain, and R. Sadiq, “A critical review of sustainable rail technologies based on environmental, economic, social, and technical perspectives to achieve net zero emissions,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 185, p. 113621, 2023.
  • M. R. Lotfalipour, M. A. Falahi, and M. Bastam, “Prediction of CO₂ emissions in Iran using grey and ARIMA models,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 229–237, 2013.
  • M. Sun, Y. Yuan, J. Zhang, R. Wang, and Y. Wang, “Greenhouse gas emissions estimation and ways to mitigate emissions in the Yellow River Delta High-efficient Eco-economic Zone, China,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 81, pp. 89–102, 2014.
  • M. E. Javanmard and S. F. Ghaderi, “A hybrid model with applying machine learning algorithms and optimization model to forecast greenhouse gas emissions with energy market data,” Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 82, p. 103886, 2022.
  • M. A. Khan, M. Z. Khan, K. Zaman, and L. Naz, “Global estimates of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 29, pp. 336–344, 2014.
  • S. Akcan, Y. Kuvvetli, and H. Kocyigit, “Time series analysis models for estimation of greenhouse gas emitted by different sectors in Turkey,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 522–533, 2018.
  • S. M. Rahman, A. N. Khondaker, M. A. Hasan, and I. Reza, “Greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation in Saudi Arabia—a challenging frontier,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 69, pp. 812–821, 2017.
  • L. Ning, L. Pei, and F. Li, “Forecast of China’s carbon emissions based on ARIMA method,” Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, vol. 2021, 2021.
  • K. Kaygusuz, “Energy and environmental issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions for sustainable development in Turkey,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 253–270, 2009.
  • K. R. Smith and E. Haigler, “Co-benefits of climate mitigation and health protection in energy systems: Scoping methods,” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 29, pp. 11–25, 2008.
  • M. L. Verdonck, M. Demuzere, H. Hooyberghs, F. Priem, and F. Van Coillie, “Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 249, p. 109210, 2019.
  • S. Akcan, “A hybrid approach to identify the risk priority of sources of greenhouse gases,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 17–25, 2020.
  • S. García et al., “Ultra-processed foods consumption as a promoting factor of greenhouse gas emissions, water, energy, and land use: A longitudinal assessment,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 891, p. 164417, 2023.
  • C. A. González et al., “Greenhouse gases emissions from the diet and risk of death and chronic diseases in the EPIC-Spain cohort,” European Journal of Public Health, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 130–135, 2021.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), “Resmi İstatistikler ve Veri Portalı,” [Online]. Available: https://www.tuik.gov.tr/. [Accessed: 24-Kasım-2024].
  • T. Nyoni and W. G. Bonga, “Prediction of CO₂ emissions in India using ARIMA models,” DRJ-Journal of Economics & Finance, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1–10, 2019.
  • Rahman and M. M. Hasan, “Modeling and forecasting of carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models,” Open Journal of Statistics, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 560–566, 2017.
  • O. Derse, “CO₂ capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) storage site selection using DEMATEL-based Grey Relational Analysis and evaluation of carbon emissions with the ARIMA method,” Environmental Science and Pollution Research, pp. 1–12, 2022.
  • K. Remoundou and P. Koundouri, “Environmental effects on public health: An economic perspective,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 6, no. 8, pp. 2160–2178, 2009.
  • C. Erden and F. Turan Koyuncu, “Kalkınma ve çevresel sağlık riskleri: Türkiye için ekonometrik bir analiz,” Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 9–23, 2014.
  • N. H. Bayraç and E. Doğan, “Türkiye'de iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerine etkileri,” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 23–48, Apr. 2016.
  • Y. S. Gökten, E. Koçak, and K. Gökten, “Antroposen krizini aşmak: CO₂ emisyonunu etkileyen değişkenler üzerine bir panel veri analizi,” Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 26, pp. 1013–1035, 2022.
  • U. Skiba et al., “UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 367, no. 1593, pp. 1175–1185, 2012.
  • E. M. Smeets, L. F. Bouwman, E. Stehfest, D. P. Van Vuuren, and A. Posthuma, “Contribution of N₂O to the greenhouse gas balance of first‐generation biofuels,” Global Change Biology, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 1–23, 2009.
  • D. Richardson, H. Felgate, N. Watmough, A. Thomson, and E. Baggs, “Mitigating release of the potent greenhouse gas N₂O from the nitrogen cycle—could enzymic regulation hold the key?” Trends in Biotechnology, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 388–397, 2009.
  • S. J. Del Grosso, T. Wirth, S. M. Ogle, and W. J. Parton, “Tarımsal azot oksit emisyonlarının tahmin edilmesi,” EOS, İşlemler Amerikan Jeofizik Birliği, vol. 89, no. 51, p. 529, 2008.
  • J. Bogner et al., “Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: Conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report,” Waste Management & Research, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 11–32, 2008.
  • B. Akça and S. O. Yetişgin, “Hayvansal üretim sistemlerinde sera gazı emisyonlarının etkisini hafifletmeye yönelik öneriler,” Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 987–993, 2023.
  • P. Yapıcıoğlu and Ö. Demir, “Atıksu arıtma tesisleri için iklim değişikliğine ve sera etkisine genel bir bakış,” Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 235–250, 2017.
  • S. Ö. Çabuk, “Küresel ısınmaya yol açan sera gazı emisyonlarındaki artış ile mücadelede iktisadi araçların rolünün değerlendirilmesi: Enerji sektörü örneği,” 2011.
  • İ. Karakurt, G. Aydın, and S. Kaya, “Kömür kökenli metan üretiminden kaynaklanan çevresel problemler,” Maden İşletmelerinde İşçi Sağlığı ve İş Güvenliği Sempozyumu, pp. 133–140, 2015.
  • Y. Dumrul, “Sağlık harcamaları ve çevre kirliliği: ASEAN-5 ülkeleri üzerine bir panel veri analizi,” IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, pp. 396–407, 2019.
  • B. Çakmak and Z. Gökalp, “İklim değişikliği ve etkin su kullanımı,” Tarım Bilimleri Araştırma Dergisi, no. 1, pp. 87–95, 2011.
  • Üreden and S. Özden, “Kurumsal karbon ayak izi nasıl hesaplanır: Teorik bir çalışma,” Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 98–108, 2018.
  • E. Ü. Deveci, “Termik santrallerin MRV sistemi sera gazı emisyon hesabı ve emisyonların iyileştirilmesi,” Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 199–214, 2019.
  • S. Çalışkan Eleren and B. Öner, “Sürdürülebilir ve çevre dostu biyoyakıt hammaddesi: Mikroalgler,” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 304–319, 2019.
  • N. Akgerman and İ. Topçu, “Binek otomobillerde CO₂ emisyon miktarının azaltılmasına yönelik stratejilerin değerlendirilmesi,” İTÜDERGİSİ/d, vol. 10, no. 2, 2011.
  • E. Gödekmerdan, B. Baştabak, and H. Sarptaş, “Sınırda karbon düzenleme mekanizması ve Türkiye’de tarımın geleceği: Fermente gübre, kompost ve biyoçar perspektifi,” Yeşil Ekonomi: Araştırmacılar Konferansı Tam Bildiri Metinleri Kitapçığı, pp. 7–19.
  • K. Korkmaz, “Küresel ısınma ve tarımsal uygulamalara etkisi,” Alatarım Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 43–49, 2007.
  • Ö. Aygül and S. Baştuğ, “Deniz taşımacılığı kaynaklı hava kirliliği ve insan sağlığına etkisi,” Journal of Maritime Transport and Logistics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 26–40, 2020.
  • O. Dündar and A. Kolay, “Karayolu yük ve yolcu taşımacılığının çevresel sürdürülebilirlik bakımından değerlendirilmesi ve Konya ili sera gazı emisyonunun hesaplanması,” Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 317–334, 2021.
  • M. Türker, A. Berk, and H. Öztürk, “Tarım ürünlerinin karbon ayak izinin azaltılması,” Proceedings of the 4th International Sustainable Development Congress, pp. 481–491.
  • G. Şahin and A. O. Avcıoğlu, “Tarımsal üretimde sera gazları ve karbon ayak izi,” Tarım Makinaları Bilimi Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 157–162, 2016.
  • D. H. Kalonya, “İklim değişikliği azaltım ve uyum süreçlerinde mera alanlarının önemi,” Çevre Şehir ve İklim Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 128–157, 2022.
  • N. Babaoğlu and K. Özgünoğlu, “Kahramanmaraş havalimanı için uçaklardan kaynaklanan emisyonların belirlenmesi,” Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 24–30, 2017.
  • H. Gülhan, H. Özgün, M. E. Erşahin, R. K. Dereli and İ. Öztürk, “İstanbul’daki biyolojik atıksu arıtma tesislerinin sera gazı emisyonunun modelleme metodu ile tahmini,” Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 59-67, 2018.
  • P. Yapıcıoğlu and Ö. Demir, “Environmental performances of the wastewater treatment plants: Green Index,” International Journal of Global Warming, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-19, 2020.

Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 81 - 93, 30.06.2025

İkra Rumeysa Aksu , Göker Kuruderse , Ayşe Nur Altın , Onur Derse

https://doi.org/10.47897/bilmes.1666752

Öz

Today, rapid population growth, industrialization, and energy consumption cause a serious increase in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This increase poses significant threats to environmental sustainability, human health, and ecosystem balance. This study aims to examine Türkiye's greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1990–2021 based on energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, and waste sectors; to make forward-looking estimates for CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O gases, and to analyze the risks associated with these emissions. In the study, emission estimates were made using Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA models from time series analysis methods. ARIMA (1,1,1) model provided more accurate forecasts with low error rates, and it was observed that the highest increase was in CO₂ emissions, and it was determined that especially the energy sector made the main contribution to this increase. Regular increases were also detected in CH₄ and N₂O gases. Following the estimation results, risk factors for the environmental and social impacts of greenhouse gases were defined. Risk factors were determined by literature review and expert opinions; Health problems caused by CO₂, ecosystem damage, and risks such as access to drinking water have been identified as priority threats. The impact of N₂O on the ozone layer and the consequences of CH₄ on agriculture and livestock are also prominent findings. As a result, it is seen that sectoral greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye will continue to increase with the current trend, and especially the energy and agriculture sectors play leading roles in this increase. This situation reveals the need for urgent interventions in terms of greenhouse gas control and climate policies at the national level. The study is an important guide for policymakers, environmental planners, and academic researchers in terms of both emission estimation and risk analysis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Greenhouse gas emissions ARIMA method exponential smoothing method risk analysis

Teşekkür

Bu çalışma, TÜBİTAK tarafından 1919B012221351 numaralı 2209-A Üniversite Ögrencileri Arastırma Projeleri Destekleme Programı kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Ç. Köne and T. Büke, “Forecasting of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 14, no. 9, pp. 2906–2915, 2010.
  • Gowrisankar et al., “Greenhouse gas emissions: A rapid submerge of the world,” Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, vol. 32, no. 6, p. 061104, 2022.
  • D. P. Singh and N. S. Maurya, “A comparative study of the various methodologies for estimation of greenhouse gas emission from wastewater treatment systems,” Oriental Journal of Chemistry, vol. 32, no. 3, p. 1373, 2016.
  • M. Kour, “Modelling and forecasting of carbon-dioxide emissions in South Africa by using ARIMA model,” International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, pp. 1–8, 2022.
  • M. Dritsaki, “Forecasting European Union CO₂ emissions using autoregressive integrated moving average-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models,” 670216917, pp. 411–423, 2020.
  • U. Mander, K. Sohar, J. Tournebize, and J. Parn, “Risk analysis of global warming-induced greenhouse gas emissions from natural sources,” International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 181–192, 2016.
  • Dünya Enerji Konseyi Türk Milli Komitesi, Enerji Raporu 2013, Ankara, 2013.
  • S. Erdoğan, “Enerji, çevre ve sera gazları,” Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 277–303, 2020.
  • B. Davarcıoğlu and A. Lelik, “Sanayide iklim değişikliğine uyum ve eko-verimlilik (temiz üretim) programı: Örnek uygulamalar,” Mesleki Bilimler Dergisi (MBD), vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 94–105, 2017.
  • D. Alper and A. Anbar, “İklim değişikliğinin finansal hizmet sektörüne etkileri,” Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 23, pp. 223–253, 2008.
  • J. P. Romero and C. Gramkow, “Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions,” World Development, vol. 139, p. 105317, 2021.
  • G. Şahin and H. G. Önder, “Atık yönetimi, sera gazı emisyonları ve Türkiye: Avrupa Yeşil Mutabakatı çerçevesinde bir değerlendirme,” Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, pp. 194–216, 2021.
  • N. Ahsan, K. Hewage, F. Razi, S. A. Hussain, and R. Sadiq, “A critical review of sustainable rail technologies based on environmental, economic, social, and technical perspectives to achieve net zero emissions,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 185, p. 113621, 2023.
  • M. R. Lotfalipour, M. A. Falahi, and M. Bastam, “Prediction of CO₂ emissions in Iran using grey and ARIMA models,” International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 229–237, 2013.
  • M. Sun, Y. Yuan, J. Zhang, R. Wang, and Y. Wang, “Greenhouse gas emissions estimation and ways to mitigate emissions in the Yellow River Delta High-efficient Eco-economic Zone, China,” Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 81, pp. 89–102, 2014.
  • M. E. Javanmard and S. F. Ghaderi, “A hybrid model with applying machine learning algorithms and optimization model to forecast greenhouse gas emissions with energy market data,” Sustainable Cities and Society, vol. 82, p. 103886, 2022.
  • M. A. Khan, M. Z. Khan, K. Zaman, and L. Naz, “Global estimates of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 29, pp. 336–344, 2014.
  • S. Akcan, Y. Kuvvetli, and H. Kocyigit, “Time series analysis models for estimation of greenhouse gas emitted by different sectors in Turkey,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 522–533, 2018.
  • S. M. Rahman, A. N. Khondaker, M. A. Hasan, and I. Reza, “Greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation in Saudi Arabia—a challenging frontier,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 69, pp. 812–821, 2017.
  • L. Ning, L. Pei, and F. Li, “Forecast of China’s carbon emissions based on ARIMA method,” Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, vol. 2021, 2021.
  • K. Kaygusuz, “Energy and environmental issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions for sustainable development in Turkey,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 253–270, 2009.
  • K. R. Smith and E. Haigler, “Co-benefits of climate mitigation and health protection in energy systems: Scoping methods,” Annual Review of Public Health, vol. 29, pp. 11–25, 2008.
  • M. L. Verdonck, M. Demuzere, H. Hooyberghs, F. Priem, and F. Van Coillie, “Heat risk assessment for the Brussels capital region under different urban planning and greenhouse gas emission scenarios,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 249, p. 109210, 2019.
  • S. Akcan, “A hybrid approach to identify the risk priority of sources of greenhouse gases,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 17–25, 2020.
  • S. García et al., “Ultra-processed foods consumption as a promoting factor of greenhouse gas emissions, water, energy, and land use: A longitudinal assessment,” Science of the Total Environment, vol. 891, p. 164417, 2023.
  • C. A. González et al., “Greenhouse gases emissions from the diet and risk of death and chronic diseases in the EPIC-Spain cohort,” European Journal of Public Health, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 130–135, 2021.
  • Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK), “Resmi İstatistikler ve Veri Portalı,” [Online]. Available: https://www.tuik.gov.tr/. [Accessed: 24-Kasım-2024].
  • T. Nyoni and W. G. Bonga, “Prediction of CO₂ emissions in India using ARIMA models,” DRJ-Journal of Economics & Finance, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1–10, 2019.
  • Rahman and M. M. Hasan, “Modeling and forecasting of carbon dioxide emissions in Bangladesh using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models,” Open Journal of Statistics, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 560–566, 2017.
  • O. Derse, “CO₂ capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) storage site selection using DEMATEL-based Grey Relational Analysis and evaluation of carbon emissions with the ARIMA method,” Environmental Science and Pollution Research, pp. 1–12, 2022.
  • K. Remoundou and P. Koundouri, “Environmental effects on public health: An economic perspective,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 6, no. 8, pp. 2160–2178, 2009.
  • C. Erden and F. Turan Koyuncu, “Kalkınma ve çevresel sağlık riskleri: Türkiye için ekonometrik bir analiz,” Aksaray Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 9–23, 2014.
  • N. H. Bayraç and E. Doğan, “Türkiye'de iklim değişikliğinin tarım sektörü üzerine etkileri,” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 23–48, Apr. 2016.
  • Y. S. Gökten, E. Koçak, and K. Gökten, “Antroposen krizini aşmak: CO₂ emisyonunu etkileyen değişkenler üzerine bir panel veri analizi,” Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 13, no. 26, pp. 1013–1035, 2022.
  • U. Skiba et al., “UK emissions of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, vol. 367, no. 1593, pp. 1175–1185, 2012.
  • E. M. Smeets, L. F. Bouwman, E. Stehfest, D. P. Van Vuuren, and A. Posthuma, “Contribution of N₂O to the greenhouse gas balance of first‐generation biofuels,” Global Change Biology, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 1–23, 2009.
  • D. Richardson, H. Felgate, N. Watmough, A. Thomson, and E. Baggs, “Mitigating release of the potent greenhouse gas N₂O from the nitrogen cycle—could enzymic regulation hold the key?” Trends in Biotechnology, vol. 27, no. 7, pp. 388–397, 2009.
  • S. J. Del Grosso, T. Wirth, S. M. Ogle, and W. J. Parton, “Tarımsal azot oksit emisyonlarının tahmin edilmesi,” EOS, İşlemler Amerikan Jeofizik Birliği, vol. 89, no. 51, p. 529, 2008.
  • J. Bogner et al., “Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: Conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report,” Waste Management & Research, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 11–32, 2008.
  • B. Akça and S. O. Yetişgin, “Hayvansal üretim sistemlerinde sera gazı emisyonlarının etkisini hafifletmeye yönelik öneriler,” Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, vol. 11, no. 5, pp. 987–993, 2023.
  • P. Yapıcıoğlu and Ö. Demir, “Atıksu arıtma tesisleri için iklim değişikliğine ve sera etkisine genel bir bakış,” Uludağ Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 235–250, 2017.
  • S. Ö. Çabuk, “Küresel ısınmaya yol açan sera gazı emisyonlarındaki artış ile mücadelede iktisadi araçların rolünün değerlendirilmesi: Enerji sektörü örneği,” 2011.
  • İ. Karakurt, G. Aydın, and S. Kaya, “Kömür kökenli metan üretiminden kaynaklanan çevresel problemler,” Maden İşletmelerinde İşçi Sağlığı ve İş Güvenliği Sempozyumu, pp. 133–140, 2015.
  • Y. Dumrul, “Sağlık harcamaları ve çevre kirliliği: ASEAN-5 ülkeleri üzerine bir panel veri analizi,” IBAD Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, pp. 396–407, 2019.
  • B. Çakmak and Z. Gökalp, “İklim değişikliği ve etkin su kullanımı,” Tarım Bilimleri Araştırma Dergisi, no. 1, pp. 87–95, 2011.
  • Üreden and S. Özden, “Kurumsal karbon ayak izi nasıl hesaplanır: Teorik bir çalışma,” Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 98–108, 2018.
  • E. Ü. Deveci, “Termik santrallerin MRV sistemi sera gazı emisyon hesabı ve emisyonların iyileştirilmesi,” Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 199–214, 2019.
  • S. Çalışkan Eleren and B. Öner, “Sürdürülebilir ve çevre dostu biyoyakıt hammaddesi: Mikroalgler,” Pamukkale Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 304–319, 2019.
  • N. Akgerman and İ. Topçu, “Binek otomobillerde CO₂ emisyon miktarının azaltılmasına yönelik stratejilerin değerlendirilmesi,” İTÜDERGİSİ/d, vol. 10, no. 2, 2011.
  • E. Gödekmerdan, B. Baştabak, and H. Sarptaş, “Sınırda karbon düzenleme mekanizması ve Türkiye’de tarımın geleceği: Fermente gübre, kompost ve biyoçar perspektifi,” Yeşil Ekonomi: Araştırmacılar Konferansı Tam Bildiri Metinleri Kitapçığı, pp. 7–19.
  • K. Korkmaz, “Küresel ısınma ve tarımsal uygulamalara etkisi,” Alatarım Dergisi, vol. 6, no. 2, pp. 43–49, 2007.
  • Ö. Aygül and S. Baştuğ, “Deniz taşımacılığı kaynaklı hava kirliliği ve insan sağlığına etkisi,” Journal of Maritime Transport and Logistics, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 26–40, 2020.
  • O. Dündar and A. Kolay, “Karayolu yük ve yolcu taşımacılığının çevresel sürdürülebilirlik bakımından değerlendirilmesi ve Konya ili sera gazı emisyonunun hesaplanması,” Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 317–334, 2021.
  • M. Türker, A. Berk, and H. Öztürk, “Tarım ürünlerinin karbon ayak izinin azaltılması,” Proceedings of the 4th International Sustainable Development Congress, pp. 481–491.
  • G. Şahin and A. O. Avcıoğlu, “Tarımsal üretimde sera gazları ve karbon ayak izi,” Tarım Makinaları Bilimi Dergisi, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 157–162, 2016.
  • D. H. Kalonya, “İklim değişikliği azaltım ve uyum süreçlerinde mera alanlarının önemi,” Çevre Şehir ve İklim Dergisi, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 128–157, 2022.
  • N. Babaoğlu and K. Özgünoğlu, “Kahramanmaraş havalimanı için uçaklardan kaynaklanan emisyonların belirlenmesi,” Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 24–30, 2017.
  • H. Gülhan, H. Özgün, M. E. Erşahin, R. K. Dereli and İ. Öztürk, “İstanbul’daki biyolojik atıksu arıtma tesislerinin sera gazı emisyonunun modelleme metodu ile tahmini,” Fırat Üniversitesi Mühendislik Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 59-67, 2018.
  • P. Yapıcıoğlu and Ö. Demir, “Environmental performances of the wastewater treatment plants: Green Index,” International Journal of Global Warming, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 1-19, 2020.
Toplam 59 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Endüstri Mühendisliği
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

İkra Rumeysa Aksu 0009-0006-7581-1504

Göker Kuruderse 0009-0009-8851-5060

Ayşe Nur Altın 0009-0000-0272-1037

Onur Derse 0000-0002-4528-1999

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Mart 2025
Kabul Tarihi 3 Haziran 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Aksu, İ. R., Kuruderse, G., Altın, A. N., Derse, O. (2025). Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors. International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal, 9(1), 81-93. https://doi.org/10.47897/bilmes.1666752
AMA Aksu İR, Kuruderse G, Altın AN, Derse O. Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors. ISVOS. Haziran 2025;9(1):81-93. doi:10.47897/bilmes.1666752
Chicago Aksu, İkra Rumeysa, Göker Kuruderse, Ayşe Nur Altın, ve Onur Derse. “Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors”. International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal 9, sy. 1 (Haziran 2025): 81-93. https://doi.org/10.47897/bilmes.1666752.
EndNote Aksu İR, Kuruderse G, Altın AN, Derse O (01 Haziran 2025) Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors. International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal 9 1 81–93.
IEEE İ. R. Aksu, G. Kuruderse, A. N. Altın, ve O. Derse, “Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors”, ISVOS, c. 9, sy. 1, ss. 81–93, 2025, doi: 10.47897/bilmes.1666752.
ISNAD Aksu, İkra Rumeysa vd. “Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors”. International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal 9/1 (Haziran 2025), 81-93. https://doi.org/10.47897/bilmes.1666752.
JAMA Aksu İR, Kuruderse G, Altın AN, Derse O. Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors. ISVOS. 2025;9:81–93.
MLA Aksu, İkra Rumeysa vd. “Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors”. International Scientific and Vocational Studies Journal, c. 9, sy. 1, 2025, ss. 81-93, doi:10.47897/bilmes.1666752.
Vancouver Aksu İR, Kuruderse G, Altın AN, Derse O. Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation and Risk Assessment for Sectors. ISVOS. 2025;9(1):81-93.


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