Öz
Bu çalışmada, yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde 1962-2006 döneminde resmen ilan edilen (de jure) kur rejimleri ile fiilen uygulanan (de facto) kur rejimleri arasında bir farklılık bulunup bulunmadığı belirlenmeye çalışılmış ve bu amaçla alternatif bir kur rejimi sınıflandırma yöntemi geliştirilmiştir. Ayrıca 1973-1999 dönemi için söz konusu ekonomilerde “iki kutup hipotezinin” ve “dalgalanma korkusu hipotezinin” geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Alternatif sınıflama yöntemi ile elde edilen bulgular ilgili dönemde resmen ilan edilen ile fiilen uygulanan kur rejimleri arasında ciddi farklıklar olduğu yönündedir. Bu alternatif yöntemle elde edilen sonuçlar yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde iki kutup hipotezini destekleyecek bulgulara ulaşamazken, dalgalanma korkusu hipotezini destekleyecek bulgulara ulaşmıştır
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri İki Kutup Hipotezi Dalgalanma Korkusu
Kaynakça
- Berg, A. and Borensztein, E. (2000), "The Dollarization Debate", Finance and Development, Vol.37 (1), pp. 38-41.
- Bofinger, P. and Wollmershäuser, T. (2001), "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order", W.E.P Working Paper, No.30.
- Bubula, A. and Ötker-Robe, İ. (2002), "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes since 1990: Evidence from De Facto Policies", IMF Working Paper, No.02/155.
- Calvo, G. A. (1999), On Dollarization, Mimeo, Baltimore: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. (2000a), The Case for Hard Pegs in the Brave New World of Global Finance, Mimeo, Baltimore: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. (2000b), Testimony on Dollarization, Mimeo, Washington, DC.: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart C. M. (2000), "Fear of Floating", NBER Working Paper, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7993, No.7993.
- Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart, C. M. (2002), "Fear of Floating", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.117 (2), pp. 379-408.
- Eichengreen, B. (1994), International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century, Washington: Brooking Institution.
- Fischer, S. (2001), "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.15 (2), pp. 3-24.
- Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A.-M., Ostry, J. D. and Wolf, H. C. (1997), "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?" NBER Working Paper, No.5874.
- Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A.-M. and Wolf, H. C. (2003), Exchange Rate Regimes : Choices and Consequences, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
- Goldstein, M. (1999), Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture, Washington: Institute for International Economics.
- Hanke, S. and Schuler, K. (2000), Currency Boards for Developing Countries: A Handbook, San Francisco: ICS Press.
- Holden, P., Holden, M. and Suss, E. C. (1979), "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation ", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.61 (3), pp. 327-333.
- IMF (2007), IMF Annual Report, Washington, D.C.
- Levy-Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (1999), "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds Vs. Words", Mimeo.
- Levy-Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (2005), "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds Vs. Words", European Economic Review, Vol.49 (6), pp. 1603- 1635.
- Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1995), "The Mirage of Fixed Exhange Rates", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.9 (4), pp. 73-96.
- Özel, S. (2000), Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Develüasyon ve Faiz, İstanbul: Alkım Yayıncılık.
- Poirson, H. (2001), "How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime?" IMF Working Paper, No.01/46.
- Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2002), "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation", National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper Series, http://www.nber.org/papers/w8963, No.8963.
- Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2004), "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.119 (1), pp. 1-48.
- Seyidoğlu, H. (2001a), Ekonomi ve İşletmecilik Terimleri Açıklamalı Sözlük, 2. Basım (ed.), İstanbul: Güzem CanYayınları.
- Seyidoğlu, H. (2001b), Uluslararası Finans, İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
- Summers, L. H.(2000), "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention and Cures", Papers and Proceedings, 90, pp. 1-16.
Öz
In this paper, it is aimed at determining whether there is a difference between the de jure and de facto exchange regimes in emerging market economies for the period 1962-2006 or not, and to do this, an alternative method for exchange rate regime classification is developed. Besides, the validity of “the bipolar hypothesis” and “fear of floating” in the economies at issue over the period 1973-1999 is tested. The findings of the alternative classification method say that there is a serious difference between the de jure and de facto regimes in the period under discussion. While the findings don’t support the bipolar hypothesis, the results approve the existence of the fear of floating in emerging market economies
Anahtar Kelimeler
Emerging Market Economies Bipolar Hypothesis Fear of Floating
Kaynakça
- Berg, A. and Borensztein, E. (2000), "The Dollarization Debate", Finance and Development, Vol.37 (1), pp. 38-41.
- Bofinger, P. and Wollmershäuser, T. (2001), "Managed Floating: Understanding the New International Monetary Order", W.E.P Working Paper, No.30.
- Bubula, A. and Ötker-Robe, İ. (2002), "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes since 1990: Evidence from De Facto Policies", IMF Working Paper, No.02/155.
- Calvo, G. A. (1999), On Dollarization, Mimeo, Baltimore: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. (2000a), The Case for Hard Pegs in the Brave New World of Global Finance, Mimeo, Baltimore: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. (2000b), Testimony on Dollarization, Mimeo, Washington, DC.: University of Maryland.
- Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart C. M. (2000), "Fear of Floating", NBER Working Paper, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7993, No.7993.
- Calvo, G. A. and Reinhart, C. M. (2002), "Fear of Floating", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.117 (2), pp. 379-408.
- Eichengreen, B. (1994), International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century, Washington: Brooking Institution.
- Fischer, S. (2001), "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?" The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.15 (2), pp. 3-24.
- Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A.-M., Ostry, J. D. and Wolf, H. C. (1997), "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?" NBER Working Paper, No.5874.
- Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A.-M. and Wolf, H. C. (2003), Exchange Rate Regimes : Choices and Consequences, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
- Goldstein, M. (1999), Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture, Washington: Institute for International Economics.
- Hanke, S. and Schuler, K. (2000), Currency Boards for Developing Countries: A Handbook, San Francisco: ICS Press.
- Holden, P., Holden, M. and Suss, E. C. (1979), "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation ", The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.61 (3), pp. 327-333.
- IMF (2007), IMF Annual Report, Washington, D.C.
- Levy-Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (1999), "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds Vs. Words", Mimeo.
- Levy-Yeyati, E. and Sturzenegger, F. (2005), "Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: Deeds Vs. Words", European Economic Review, Vol.49 (6), pp. 1603- 1635.
- Obstfeld, M. and Rogoff, K. (1995), "The Mirage of Fixed Exhange Rates", Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.9 (4), pp. 73-96.
- Özel, S. (2000), Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Develüasyon ve Faiz, İstanbul: Alkım Yayıncılık.
- Poirson, H. (2001), "How Do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime?" IMF Working Paper, No.01/46.
- Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2002), "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation", National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper Series, http://www.nber.org/papers/w8963, No.8963.
- Reinhart, C. M. and Rogoff, K. S. (2004), "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol.119 (1), pp. 1-48.
- Seyidoğlu, H. (2001a), Ekonomi ve İşletmecilik Terimleri Açıklamalı Sözlük, 2. Basım (ed.), İstanbul: Güzem CanYayınları.
- Seyidoğlu, H. (2001b), Uluslararası Finans, İstanbul: Güzem Can Yayınları.
- Summers, L. H.(2000), "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention and Cures", Papers and Proceedings, 90, pp. 1-16.
Ayrıntılar
| Diğer ID | JA78FN29EY |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Kasım 2009 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2009 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 4 |