Araştırma Makalesi
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THE IMPACT OF RELATIVE AGE EFFECT ON PLAYER DISTRIBUTION AND MARKET VALUE IN TOP UEFA COUNTRIES

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 21 - 35, 30.06.2025

Selçuk Tarakcı , Gülhan Erdem Subak , Kaan Kaya

Öz

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) is a well-documented phenomenon that influences the development and young athletes’ career trajectories, particularly in football. This study examines the impact of RAE on the distribution and market value of U19 players in the top 10 UEFA-ranked countries since January 2024 Data were collected from Transfermarkt, analyzing players’ birth quarters using the Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit test, while market value differences were examined through ANOVA. The results indicate a significant overrepresentation of players born in the first two quarters of the year, with a corresponding underrepresentation in the final quarter. The findings reveal a significant overrepresentation of players born in the first two quarters of the year, particularly in Germany, France, and Turkey, while England exhibited a more balanced distribution. Furthermore, players born in the first quarter commanded the highest market values, highlighting the long-term economic implications of RAE. These findings underscore the need for ongoing efforts to address RAE in youth football development, ensuring that talent identification and development practices are equitable and inclusive. By fostering a more balanced environment, the football industry can better recognize and nurture potential across all birth quarters, ultimately promoting fairness and diversity in the sport.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Relative age effect youth football market value talent identification

Etik Beyan

Ethical approval was obtained from the Iğdır University Scientific Research Ethics Committee, ensuring compliance with research standards.

Destekleyen Kurum

This research was not supported by any institution or organization.

Teşekkür

We extend our gratitude to all athletes who contributed to this research. Their invaluable contributions have significantly enriched the study and are deeply appreciated.

Kaynakça

  • Bemben, M. G., & Lamont, H. S. (2005). Creatine supplementation and exercise performance: Recent findings. Sports Medicine, 35(2), 107-125. https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200535020-00002
  • Brustio, P. R., McAuley, A. B. T., Ungureanu, A. N. & Kelly, A. L. (2024). Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate effects in youth national football players across Europe. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 6, 1420220. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2024.1420220
  • Cabezón, J. M. Y., García, B. F., Castán, J. C. R. & Velasco, A. T. (2024). The effect of relative age in the top seven professional women's football leagues in Europe. Retos-Nuevas Tendencias en Educación Física Deporte y Recreación, 54, 519-528.
  • Carling, C., le Gall, F., Reilly, T. & Williams, A. M. (2009). Do anthropometric and fitness characteristics vary according to birth date distribution in elite youth academy soccer players? Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 19(1), 3-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2008.00867.x
  • Delorme, N., Boiché, J. & Raspaud, M. (2010). Relative age effect in elite sports: Methodological bias or real discrimination? European Journal of Sport Science, 10(2), 91-96. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461390903271584
  • Doncaster, G., Kelly, A. L., McAuley, A. B. T. & Cain, A. L. (2024). Relative age effects and the Premier League's youth development: A longitudinal study. Journal of Science in Sport and Exercise, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42978-024-00285-w
  • Fernández-Galván, L. M., Belando-Pedreño, N. & Yáñez-Sedeño, P. (2024). Influence of relative age on physical condition and academic performance in adolescents. Behavioral Sciences, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/bs14030181
  • Gil, S. M., Badiola, A., Bidaurrazaga-Letona, I., Zubero, J., Alkorta, P. & Aritzeta, J. (2014). Relationship between the relative age effect and anthropometry, maturity and performance in young soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(5), 479-486. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.832355
  • Grooms, D. R., Palmer, T., Onate, J. A., Myer, G. D. & Grindstaff, T. L. (2017). Soccer-specific warm-up and lower extremity injury rates in collegiate male soccer players. Journal of Athletic Training, 52(8), 728-736. https://doi.org/10.4085/1062-6050-52.3.15
  • Gutierrez Diaz del Campo, D., Pastor Vicedo, J. C., Gonzalez Villora, S. & Contreras Jordan, O. R. (2010). The relative age effect in youth soccer players from Spain. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 9(2), 190-198.
  • Heilmann, F., Kuhlig, A. & Stoll, O. (2024). Relative age effects in German youth A and B male soccer leagues and third-division professionals. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2024.1432605
  • Helsen, W. F., Baker, J., Michiels, S., Schorer, J., Van Winckel, J. & Williams, A. M. (2012). The relative age effect in European professional soccer: Did ten years of research make any difference? Journal of Sports Sciences, 30(15), 1665-1671. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.721929
  • Hirose, N. (2009). Relationships among birth-month distribution, skeletal age and anthropometric characteristics in adolescent elite soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(11), 1159-1166. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903131770
  • Huertas, F., Ballester, R., Gines, H. J., Hamidi, A. K., Moratal, C., & Lupiáñez, J. (2019). Relative Age Effect in the Sport Environment. Role of Physical Fitness and Cognitive Function in Youth Soccer Players. International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(16), 2837. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162837
  • Jiménez, I. P. & Pain, M. T. G. (2008). Relative age effect in Spanish association football: Its extent and implications for wasted potential. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26(10), 995-1003. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410801910285
  • Locks, R., Utsunomiya, H., Briggs, K. K., McNamara, S., Chahla, J., Sikka, R. S. & Philippon, M. J. (2017). Return to play after hip arthroscopic surgery for femoroacetabular impingement in professional soccer players. The American Journal of Sports Medicine, 45(7), 1601-1608. https://doi.org/10.1177/0363546517694855
  • Musch, J. & Hay, R. (1999). The relative age effect in soccer: Cross-cultural evidence for a systematic discrimination against children born late in the competition year. Sociology of Sport Journal, 16(1), 54-64. https://doi.org/10.1123/ssj.16.1.54
  • Mujika, I., Vaeyens, R., Matthys, S. P. J., Santisteban, J., Goiriena, J. & Philippaerts, R. M. (2009). The relative age effect in a professional football club setting. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(11), 1153-1158. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903220328
  • Niederer, D., Engeroff, T., Wilke, J., Vogt, L. & Banzer, W. (2018). Return to play, performance, and career duration after anterior cruciate ligament rupture: A case-control study in the five biggest football nations in Europe. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 28(10), 2220-2233. https://doi.org/10.1111/sms.13239
  • Opar, D. A., Williams, M. D., Timmins, R. G., Hickey, J. & Duhig, S. J. (2015). Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 47(5), 857-865. https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000000505
  • Pareja-Blanco, F., Sánchez-Medina, L., Suárez-Arrones, L. J. & González-Badillo, J. J. (2017). Effects of velocity loss during resistance training on performance in professional soccer players. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 12(3), 293-299. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2015-0791
  • Peeters, T. (2018). Testing the wisdom of crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results. International Journal of Forecasting, 34(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.10.005
  • Schorer, J., Cobley, S., Büsch, D., Bräutigam, H. & Baker, J. (2009). Influence of competition level, gender, player nationality, career stage and playing position on relative age effects. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 19(5), 720-730. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2008.00838.x
  • Styles, W. J., Matthews, M. J. & Comfort, P. (2016). Effects of strength training on squat and sprint performance in soccer players. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 30(6), 1534-1539. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0000000000001281
  • Timmins, R. G., Bourne, M. N., Shield, A. J., Williams, M. D., Opar, D. A. & Hickey, J. (2016). Short biceps femoris fascicles and eccentric knee flexor weakness increase the risk of hamstring injury in elite football (soccer): A prospective cohort study. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(24), 1524-1535. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2015-095362
  • Tonnessen, E., Hem, E., Leirstein, S., Haugen, T. A. & Seiler, S. (2013). Maximal aerobic power characteristics of male professional soccer players, 1989–2012. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 8(3), 323-329. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.8.3.323
  • Vaeyens, R., Philippaerts, R. M. & Malina, R. M. (2005). The relative age effect in soccer: A match-related perspective. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23(7), 747-756. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410400022052
  • Vincent, J. & Glamser, F. D. (2006). Gender differences in the relative age effect among US Olympic Development Program youth soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 24(4), 405-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410500244655
  • Waldén, M., Hägglund, M. & Ekstrand, J. (2005). High risk of new knee injury in elite footballers with previous anterior cruciate ligament injury during a 14-year follow-up. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 40(2), 158-162. https://doi.org/10.1136/b

UEFA Sıralamasında Üst Sırada Yer Alan Ülkelerde Bağıl Yaş Etkisinin Oyuncu Dağılımı ve Piyasa Değeri Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 21 - 35, 30.06.2025

Selçuk Tarakcı , Gülhan Erdem Subak , Kaan Kaya

Öz

Bağıl Yaş Etkisi (Relative Age Effect - RAE), özellikle futbolda, genç sporcuların gelişim süreçlerini ve kariyer yönelimlerini etkileyen iyi belgelenmiş bir fenomendir. Bu çalışma, Ocak 2024 itibarıyla UEFA sıralamasında ilk 10 sırada yer alan ülkelerde U19 futbolcuların dağılımı ve piyasa değerleri üzerindeki RAE etkisini incelemektedir. Veriler Transfermarkt platformundan elde edilmiş; oyuncuların doğum çeyreklerine göre dağılımları Ki-Kare Goodness-of-Fit testi ile, piyasa değeri farkları ise ANOVA analiziyle değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, yılın ilk iki çeyreğinde doğan oyuncuların anlamlı düzeyde fazla temsil edildiğini ve son çeyrekte doğan oyuncuların ise önemli ölçüde az temsil edildiğini ortaya koymuştur. Özellikle Almanya, Fransa ve Türkiye’de bu dengesizlik belirgin bir şekilde gözlemlenirken, İngiltere daha dengeli bir dağılım sergilemiştir. Ayrıca, yılın ilk çeyreğinde doğan oyuncuların en yüksek piyasa değerine sahip olduğu belirlenmiş ve bu durum, RAE’nin uzun vadeli ekonomik etkilerine işaret etmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, genç futbolcu gelişiminde RAE’nin etkilerini azaltmaya yönelik çabaların gerekliliğini vurgulamakta ve yetenek seçimi ile gelişim süreçlerinin daha adil ve kapsayıcı bir şekilde yürütülmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Daha dengeli bir gelişim ortamının sağlanması, tüm doğum çeyreklerinden gelen potansiyel yeteneklerin tanınması ve desteklenmesini mümkün kılacak, böylece futbolda adalet ve çeşitliliğin teşvik edilmesine katkı sağlayacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bağıl Yaş Etkisi Genç Futbolu Piyasa Değeri Yetenek Seçimi

Etik Beyan

Etik onay, araştırma standartlarına uygunluğu sağlamak amacıyla Iğdır Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırmalar Etik Kurulu’ndan alınmıştır

Destekleyen Kurum

Bu araştırmayı herhangi bir kurum ya da kuruluş desteklememiştir.

Teşekkür

Bu araştırmaya katkı sağlayan tüm sporculara teşekkürlerimizi sunarız. Verdikleri kıymetli katkılar, çalışmamıza önemli ölçüde değer katmış olup, içtenlikle takdir edilmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Bemben, M. G., & Lamont, H. S. (2005). Creatine supplementation and exercise performance: Recent findings. Sports Medicine, 35(2), 107-125. https://doi.org/10.2165/00007256-200535020-00002
  • Brustio, P. R., McAuley, A. B. T., Ungureanu, A. N. & Kelly, A. L. (2024). Career trajectories, transition rates, and birthdate effects in youth national football players across Europe. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 6, 1420220. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2024.1420220
  • Cabezón, J. M. Y., García, B. F., Castán, J. C. R. & Velasco, A. T. (2024). The effect of relative age in the top seven professional women's football leagues in Europe. Retos-Nuevas Tendencias en Educación Física Deporte y Recreación, 54, 519-528.
  • Carling, C., le Gall, F., Reilly, T. & Williams, A. M. (2009). Do anthropometric and fitness characteristics vary according to birth date distribution in elite youth academy soccer players? Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 19(1), 3-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2008.00867.x
  • Delorme, N., Boiché, J. & Raspaud, M. (2010). Relative age effect in elite sports: Methodological bias or real discrimination? European Journal of Sport Science, 10(2), 91-96. https://doi.org/10.1080/17461390903271584
  • Doncaster, G., Kelly, A. L., McAuley, A. B. T. & Cain, A. L. (2024). Relative age effects and the Premier League's youth development: A longitudinal study. Journal of Science in Sport and Exercise, 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42978-024-00285-w
  • Fernández-Galván, L. M., Belando-Pedreño, N. & Yáñez-Sedeño, P. (2024). Influence of relative age on physical condition and academic performance in adolescents. Behavioral Sciences, 14(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/bs14030181
  • Gil, S. M., Badiola, A., Bidaurrazaga-Letona, I., Zubero, J., Alkorta, P. & Aritzeta, J. (2014). Relationship between the relative age effect and anthropometry, maturity and performance in young soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 32(5), 479-486. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2013.832355
  • Grooms, D. R., Palmer, T., Onate, J. A., Myer, G. D. & Grindstaff, T. L. (2017). Soccer-specific warm-up and lower extremity injury rates in collegiate male soccer players. Journal of Athletic Training, 52(8), 728-736. https://doi.org/10.4085/1062-6050-52.3.15
  • Gutierrez Diaz del Campo, D., Pastor Vicedo, J. C., Gonzalez Villora, S. & Contreras Jordan, O. R. (2010). The relative age effect in youth soccer players from Spain. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 9(2), 190-198.
  • Heilmann, F., Kuhlig, A. & Stoll, O. (2024). Relative age effects in German youth A and B male soccer leagues and third-division professionals. Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2024.1432605
  • Helsen, W. F., Baker, J., Michiels, S., Schorer, J., Van Winckel, J. & Williams, A. M. (2012). The relative age effect in European professional soccer: Did ten years of research make any difference? Journal of Sports Sciences, 30(15), 1665-1671. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2012.721929
  • Hirose, N. (2009). Relationships among birth-month distribution, skeletal age and anthropometric characteristics in adolescent elite soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(11), 1159-1166. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903131770
  • Huertas, F., Ballester, R., Gines, H. J., Hamidi, A. K., Moratal, C., & Lupiáñez, J. (2019). Relative Age Effect in the Sport Environment. Role of Physical Fitness and Cognitive Function in Youth Soccer Players. International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(16), 2837. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16162837
  • Jiménez, I. P. & Pain, M. T. G. (2008). Relative age effect in Spanish association football: Its extent and implications for wasted potential. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26(10), 995-1003. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410801910285
  • Locks, R., Utsunomiya, H., Briggs, K. K., McNamara, S., Chahla, J., Sikka, R. S. & Philippon, M. J. (2017). Return to play after hip arthroscopic surgery for femoroacetabular impingement in professional soccer players. The American Journal of Sports Medicine, 45(7), 1601-1608. https://doi.org/10.1177/0363546517694855
  • Musch, J. & Hay, R. (1999). The relative age effect in soccer: Cross-cultural evidence for a systematic discrimination against children born late in the competition year. Sociology of Sport Journal, 16(1), 54-64. https://doi.org/10.1123/ssj.16.1.54
  • Mujika, I., Vaeyens, R., Matthys, S. P. J., Santisteban, J., Goiriena, J. & Philippaerts, R. M. (2009). The relative age effect in a professional football club setting. Journal of Sports Sciences, 27(11), 1153-1158. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410903220328
  • Niederer, D., Engeroff, T., Wilke, J., Vogt, L. & Banzer, W. (2018). Return to play, performance, and career duration after anterior cruciate ligament rupture: A case-control study in the five biggest football nations in Europe. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 28(10), 2220-2233. https://doi.org/10.1111/sms.13239
  • Opar, D. A., Williams, M. D., Timmins, R. G., Hickey, J. & Duhig, S. J. (2015). Eccentric hamstring strength and hamstring injury risk in Australian footballers. Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, 47(5), 857-865. https://doi.org/10.1249/MSS.0000000000000505
  • Pareja-Blanco, F., Sánchez-Medina, L., Suárez-Arrones, L. J. & González-Badillo, J. J. (2017). Effects of velocity loss during resistance training on performance in professional soccer players. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 12(3), 293-299. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2015-0791
  • Peeters, T. (2018). Testing the wisdom of crowds in the field: Transfermarkt valuations and international soccer results. International Journal of Forecasting, 34(1), 17-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.10.005
  • Schorer, J., Cobley, S., Büsch, D., Bräutigam, H. & Baker, J. (2009). Influence of competition level, gender, player nationality, career stage and playing position on relative age effects. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, 19(5), 720-730. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0838.2008.00838.x
  • Styles, W. J., Matthews, M. J. & Comfort, P. (2016). Effects of strength training on squat and sprint performance in soccer players. Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, 30(6), 1534-1539. https://doi.org/10.1519/JSC.0000000000001281
  • Timmins, R. G., Bourne, M. N., Shield, A. J., Williams, M. D., Opar, D. A. & Hickey, J. (2016). Short biceps femoris fascicles and eccentric knee flexor weakness increase the risk of hamstring injury in elite football (soccer): A prospective cohort study. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 50(24), 1524-1535. https://doi.org/10.1136/bjsports-2015-095362
  • Tonnessen, E., Hem, E., Leirstein, S., Haugen, T. A. & Seiler, S. (2013). Maximal aerobic power characteristics of male professional soccer players, 1989–2012. International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 8(3), 323-329. https://doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.8.3.323
  • Vaeyens, R., Philippaerts, R. M. & Malina, R. M. (2005). The relative age effect in soccer: A match-related perspective. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23(7), 747-756. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410400022052
  • Vincent, J. & Glamser, F. D. (2006). Gender differences in the relative age effect among US Olympic Development Program youth soccer players. Journal of Sports Sciences, 24(4), 405-413. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640410500244655
  • Waldén, M., Hägglund, M. & Ekstrand, J. (2005). High risk of new knee injury in elite footballers with previous anterior cruciate ligament injury during a 14-year follow-up. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 40(2), 158-162. https://doi.org/10.1136/b
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Antrenman, Egzersiz ve Spor Bilimleri (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Selçuk Tarakcı 0000-0003-3841-9571

Gülhan Erdem Subak 0000-0003-1698-262X

Kaan Kaya 0000-0003-0892-645X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Mart 2025
Kabul Tarihi 25 Haziran 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Tarakcı, S., Subak, G. E., & Kaya, K. (2025). THE IMPACT OF RELATIVE AGE EFFECT ON PLAYER DISTRIBUTION AND MARKET VALUE IN TOP UEFA COUNTRIES. Fenerbahçe Üniversitesi Spor Bilimleri Dergisi, 5(1), 21-35.
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