Is University Education Worth It? Minimum Wage, Labor Supply Composition and Skill-Based Wage Gap in Türkiye: 2004-2023 Period
Öz
This study analyzes the effect of minimum wage changes and the proportion of skilled labor in the employment on the skill-based wage gap in Türkiye. We utilize Household Labor Force Survey (HLFS) micro data sets, covering the period from 2004 to 2023. We first analyze wage disparities between skilled and unskilled groups through a Heckman-type wage equation that accounts for sample selection. Subsequently, we compute the skill-based wage gap for each year using the Blinder-Oaxaca method. Finally, we apply an econometric model where the wage gap, derived from the microdata, serves as the dependent variable. Explanatory variables are the proportion of skilled labor in employment (calculated from the microdata) and real minimum wage changes, adjusted for inflation by deflating the average annual nominal increase. This methodology allows us to explore the issue from a broader macroeconomic perspective. The results from the Heckman wage equations reveal significant differences in the effect of factors on wage determination and job-finding probabilities between skilled and unskilled employees. The econometric analysis, which examines the overall factors influencing the skill-based wage gap, reveals that a 1% rise in the minimum wage leads to a 0.15% decrease in the wage gap. Additionally, a 1% increase in the proportion of skilled workers in the workforce results in a 0.26% reduction in the wage gap. These results suggest that the wage advantage tied to education is gradually decreasing, potentially leading to a future drop in the demand for university degrees.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Minimum Wage Heckman Sample Selection Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition Survey Data Analysis
Kaynakça
- Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F. & Kearney, M. S. (2008). Trends in U.S. wage inequality: Revising the revisionists. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 300–323. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.300
- Autor, D. H., Manning, A. & Smith, C. L. (2016). The contribution of the minimum wage to us wage inequality over three decades: A reassessment. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1), 58-99. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140073
- Bakis, O. & Polat, S. (2015). Wage inequality in Turkey, 2002–10. Economics of Transition, 23(1), 169-212. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12058
- Bakis, O., & Polat, S. (2023). Wage inequality dynamics in Turkey. Empirica, 50, 657-694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09579-8
- Bakis, O., Hisarciklilar, M. & Filiztekin, A. (2015). The impact of a minimum wage increase on employment and school enrollment: Evidence from Turkey. EAF Working Paper. https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2015-10-16_bakis.pdf
- Becker, G. (1964). Human capital. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
- Blinder, S. A. (1973). Wage discrimination: Reduced form and structural estimates. The Journal of Human Resources, 8, 436-455. https://doi.org/10.2307/144855
- Caner, A., Demirel-Derebasoglu, M. & Okten, C. (2022). Higher education expansion and college wage premium: Evidence from Turkey. Betam Working Paper. https://betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Higher-Education-Expansion-and-College-Wage-Premium-Evidence-from-Turkey.pdf
- Card, D. & DiNardo, J. E. (2002). Skill-biased technological change and rising wage inequality: Some problems and puzzles. Journal of Labor Economics, 20(4), 733-782. https://doi.org/10.1086/342055
- Crivellaro, E. (2014). College wage premium over time: trends in Europe in the last 15 years. University of Venice. Tech. rep. Department of Economics Working Paper 03. https://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2014/WP_DSE_crivellaro_03_14.pdf
- Dickens, R., Machin, S. & Manning, A. (1999). The effects of minimum wages on employment: Theory and evidence from Britain. Journal of Labor Economics, 17(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1086/209911
- DiNardo, J., Fortin, N. & Lemieux, T. (1996). Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973-1992: A semiparametric approach. Econometrica, 64(5), 1001–1044. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171954
- Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47(1), 153-161. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912352
- Işık, E., Orhangazi, Ö. & Tekgüç, H. (2020). Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 10(16), 1-41. https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0016
- Juhn, C., Murphy, K. M. & Pierce, B. (1993). Wage inequality and the rise in returns to skill. The Journal of Political Economy, 101(3), 410-442. https://doi.org/10.1086/261881
- Karakülah, K. (2024). Impact of education on labor market wages in Türkiye. Fiscaoeconomia, 8(2), 761-778. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1457539
- Katz, L. F. & Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in relative wages, 1963-1987: Supply and demand factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118323
- Lee, D. S. (1999). Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s: Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3), 977–1023. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556197
- Machin, S. (1997). The decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in Britain. European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 647–657. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00027-5
- Mincer, J. (1974). Schooling, experience,and earnings. New York: Columbia University Press.
- Mocan, L. (2014). The Impact of Education on Wages: Analysis of an Education Reform in Turkey. Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1424.
- Oaxaca, R. (1973). Male-female wage differentials in urban labor markets. International Economic Review, 14, 693-709. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525981
- Pelek, S. (2018). The impact of the minimum wage on wage distribution: The evidence from Turkey. Ekonomi-tek, 7(1), 17-59. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1729258
- Popli, G. & Yılmaz, O. (2017). Educational attainment and wage inequality in Turkey. Labour, 31(1), 73-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12083
- Sutch, R. (2010). The unexpected long-run impact of the minimum wage: An educational cascade. Nber Working Paper Series, 16355. https://economics.ucr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Sutch.pdf
- Tansel, A. & Bircan-Bodur, F. (2012). Wage inequality and returns to education in Turkey: A quantile regression analysis. Review of Development Economics, 16(1), 107-121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00655.x
- Vural, B. M. & Gülcan, Y. (2008). Impact of education on individual earnings in Turkey. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(3), 124-132.
Üniversite Eğitimi Almaya Değer mi? Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret, İşgücü Arzı Kompozisyonu ve Beceri Temelli Ücret Farkı: 2004-2023 Dönemi
Öz
Bu makale, asgari ücret değişikliklerinin ve işgücündeki nitelikli iş gücünün oranının Türkiye’deki beceri temelli ücret farkı üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektedir. 2004-2023 dönemi arasını kapsayan Hanehalkı İşgücü Anketi (HİA) mikro veri setleri kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, becerili ve becerisi düşük gruplar arasındaki ücret farklılıkları, örneklem seçim hatasını dikkate alan Heckman tipi bir ücret denklemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ardından, Blinder-Oaxaca ayrıştırma tekniği kullanılarak her yıl için beceri temelli ücret farkı hesaplanmıştır. Son olarak, mikro verilerden türetilen ücret farkının bağımlı değişken olarak kullanıldığı ekonometrik model oluşturulmuştur. Bağımsız değişkenler, işgücündeki nitelikli iş gücünün oranı (mikro verilerden hesaplanmış) ve enflasyona göre düzeltilmiş gerçek asgari ücret değişiklikleridir. Bu metodoloji, konuyu daha geniş bir makroekonomik perspektiften incelememize olanak tanımaktadır. Heckman ücret denklemlerinden elde edilen sonuçlar, becerili ve becerisi düşük çalışanlar arasındaki ücret belirleme faktörleri ve iş bulma olasılıkları üzerinde önemli farklılıklar olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Beceri temelli ücret farkını etkileyen genel faktörleri inceleyen ekonometrik analiz, asgari ücretteki %1’lik bir artışın ücret farkını %0,15 oranında azalttığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca, iş gücündeki nitelikli işçilerin oranındaki %1’lik bir artış, ücret farkını %0,26 oranında azaltmaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, eğitimle bağlantılı olan ücret avantajının giderek azaldığını ve bu durumun gelecekte üniversite diplomalarına olan talebin düşmesine yol açabileceğini göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Asgari Ücret Heckman Örneklem Seçimi Blinder-Oaxaca Ayrıştırması Anket Verisi Analizi
Kaynakça
- Autor, D. H., Katz, L. F. & Kearney, M. S. (2008). Trends in U.S. wage inequality: Revising the revisionists. Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(2), 300–323. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.300
- Autor, D. H., Manning, A. & Smith, C. L. (2016). The contribution of the minimum wage to us wage inequality over three decades: A reassessment. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 8(1), 58-99. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20140073
- Bakis, O. & Polat, S. (2015). Wage inequality in Turkey, 2002–10. Economics of Transition, 23(1), 169-212. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12058
- Bakis, O., & Polat, S. (2023). Wage inequality dynamics in Turkey. Empirica, 50, 657-694. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-023-09579-8
- Bakis, O., Hisarciklilar, M. & Filiztekin, A. (2015). The impact of a minimum wage increase on employment and school enrollment: Evidence from Turkey. EAF Working Paper. https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2015-10-16_bakis.pdf
- Becker, G. (1964). Human capital. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
- Blinder, S. A. (1973). Wage discrimination: Reduced form and structural estimates. The Journal of Human Resources, 8, 436-455. https://doi.org/10.2307/144855
- Caner, A., Demirel-Derebasoglu, M. & Okten, C. (2022). Higher education expansion and college wage premium: Evidence from Turkey. Betam Working Paper. https://betam.bahcesehir.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Higher-Education-Expansion-and-College-Wage-Premium-Evidence-from-Turkey.pdf
- Card, D. & DiNardo, J. E. (2002). Skill-biased technological change and rising wage inequality: Some problems and puzzles. Journal of Labor Economics, 20(4), 733-782. https://doi.org/10.1086/342055
- Crivellaro, E. (2014). College wage premium over time: trends in Europe in the last 15 years. University of Venice. Tech. rep. Department of Economics Working Paper 03. https://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2014/WP_DSE_crivellaro_03_14.pdf
- Dickens, R., Machin, S. & Manning, A. (1999). The effects of minimum wages on employment: Theory and evidence from Britain. Journal of Labor Economics, 17(1), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1086/209911
- DiNardo, J., Fortin, N. & Lemieux, T. (1996). Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973-1992: A semiparametric approach. Econometrica, 64(5), 1001–1044. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171954
- Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 47(1), 153-161. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912352
- Işık, E., Orhangazi, Ö. & Tekgüç, H. (2020). Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 10(16), 1-41. https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0016
- Juhn, C., Murphy, K. M. & Pierce, B. (1993). Wage inequality and the rise in returns to skill. The Journal of Political Economy, 101(3), 410-442. https://doi.org/10.1086/261881
- Karakülah, K. (2024). Impact of education on labor market wages in Türkiye. Fiscaoeconomia, 8(2), 761-778. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1457539
- Katz, L. F. & Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in relative wages, 1963-1987: Supply and demand factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118323
- Lee, D. S. (1999). Wage inequality in the United States during the 1980s: Rising dispersion or falling minimum wage?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(3), 977–1023. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399556197
- Machin, S. (1997). The decline of labour market institutions and the rise in wage inequality in Britain. European Economic Review, 41(3-5), 647–657. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00027-5
- Mincer, J. (1974). Schooling, experience,and earnings. New York: Columbia University Press.
- Mocan, L. (2014). The Impact of Education on Wages: Analysis of an Education Reform in Turkey. Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1424.
- Oaxaca, R. (1973). Male-female wage differentials in urban labor markets. International Economic Review, 14, 693-709. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525981
- Pelek, S. (2018). The impact of the minimum wage on wage distribution: The evidence from Turkey. Ekonomi-tek, 7(1), 17-59. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1729258
- Popli, G. & Yılmaz, O. (2017). Educational attainment and wage inequality in Turkey. Labour, 31(1), 73-104. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12083
- Sutch, R. (2010). The unexpected long-run impact of the minimum wage: An educational cascade. Nber Working Paper Series, 16355. https://economics.ucr.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Sutch.pdf
- Tansel, A. & Bircan-Bodur, F. (2012). Wage inequality and returns to education in Turkey: A quantile regression analysis. Review of Development Economics, 16(1), 107-121. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00655.x
- Vural, B. M. & Gülcan, Y. (2008). Impact of education on individual earnings in Turkey. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2(3), 124-132.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonometri (Diğer), Mikroekonomik Teori, Çalışma Ekonomisi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 25 Mayıs 2025 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 23 Kasım 2024 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 24 Ocak 2025 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2025 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2 |
Fiscaoeconomia is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.