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Piyasa Değeri Yüksek İşletmelerde Nakit Akış Tablosunun İflas Riskini Açıklama Gücü

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 1, 74 - 90, 30.06.2025

Mehmet Kuzu

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı, piyasa değeri yüksek işletmelerde nakit akış tablosu verilerinin iflas riskini açıklama gücünü tespit etmektir. Araştırmada sonuçların daha tutarlı bir şekilde yorumlanabilmesi ve literatüre özgün katkı sağlamak için finansal açıdan güçlü şirketler analize dahil edilmiştir. 21 Mart 2025 tarihi itibariyle piyasa değeri en yüksek 10 işletme araştırma kapsamına alınmıştır. Araştırma yöntemi robust regresyon yöntemidir. Bağımlı değişken olarak Altman Z skoru seçilmiştir. Bağımsız değişkenler iki farklı model çerçevesinde yapılandırılmıştır. Birinci modelde dönem içi nakit akışları olarak, işletme, yatırım ve finansman faaliyetlerinden elde edilen nakit akışları bağımsız değişkenler olarak belirlenmiştir. İkinci modelde dönem sonu nakit akışları kapsamında, dönem başı nakit akışı, dönem içi toplam nakit akışı, dönem sonu nakit akışı ve kaldıraçlı nakit akışları bağımsız değişkenler olarak seçilmiştir. Araştırma bulgularına göre, işletme ve yatırım faaliyetlerinden gelen nakit akışları iflas riskini azaltırken, finansman kaynaklı nakit akışları riski artırmaktadır. Teknik likiditeyi yansıtan nakit akışları iflas riskini düşürürken, dönem başı ve dönem içi toplam nakit akışları riski yükseltmektedir. Modellerin açıklama gücü %15’tir. Çalışmanın özgün katkısı, piyasa değeri yüksek firmaların da likidite temelli iflas riski taşıyabileceğini göstermesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nakit Akış Tablosu Altman Z Skoru Firma İflas Riski

Kaynakça

  • Aktaş, R., Karğın, S., & Karğın, M. (2012). Nakit akışlarının sağlandığı faaliyetler yöntemi ile işletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin incelenmesi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 56, 101–118.
  • Alderson, M. J., & Betker, B. L. (1999). Assessing post-bankruptcy performance: An analysis of reorganized firms’ cash flows. Financial Management, 28(2), 68–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666196
  • Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
  • Altman, E. I. (2002). Revisiting credit scoring models in a Basel 2 environment (NYU Working Paper No. S-FI-02-11). SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1298829
  • Anthony, R. N. (1956). Funds statement analysis and the funds statement. The Accounting Review, 31(2), 196–202.
  • Arlov, O., Rankov, S., & Kotlica, S, (2013). Cash flow in predicting financial distress and bankruptcy. Advances in environmental science and energy planning, 42(2/3), 421-441.
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4(Supplement), 71–111. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171
  • Berk, J. B. (1995). A critique of size-related anomalies. The Review of Financial Studies, 8(2), 275–286. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/8.2.275
  • Boadway, R., Sato, M., & Tremblay, J.-F. (2022). Cash-flow business taxation revisited: Bankruptcy and asymmetric information. International Tax and Public Finance, 29(4), 922–952.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1988). Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends. The Journal of Finance, 43(3), 661–676. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04598.x
  • Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 59(3), 383–403. https://doi.org/10.1086/296344
  • Çavuş, G., & Başar, A. B. (2020). Finansal başarısızlık durumunun öngörülmesinde nakit akış bilgilerinin rolü. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(Özel Sayı), ös292–ös318. http://dx.doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.647542
  • Dereköy, F. (2020). Borç ödeme gücünün ölçülmesinde geleneksel oranlar ile nakit akış oranlarının karşılaştırılması: İmalat sektörü örneği. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 4(1), 153–170. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.670565
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Elmas, B., & Topal, B. (2022). Yatırım faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan nakit akışları ile firma değeri ve firma performansı ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(4), 359–373. https://doi.org/10.5152/TBE.2022.220106
  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x
  • FitzPatrick, P. J. (1932). A comparison of the ratios of successful industrial enterprises with those of failed companies. The Certified Public Accountant, 12(10–12), 598–731.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press.
  • Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. (1948). The utility analysis of choices involving risk. The Journal of Political Economy, 56(4), 279–304. https://doi.org/10.1086/256692
  • Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., & Whitford, D. T. (1985). Predicting bankruptcy: If cash flow’s not the bottom line, what is? Financial Analysts Journal, 41(5), 47–56. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4478871
  • Gombola, M. J., Haskins, M. E., Ketz, J. E., & Williams, D. D. (1987). Cash flow in bankruptcy prediction. Financial Management, 16(4), 55–65. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666109
  • Hoover, K. D. (2000). The econometric consequences of the ceteris paribus condition in economic models. Journal of Econometrics, 95(1), 1–32.
  • Huber, P. J. (1981). Robust statistics. Wiley.
  • Investing Pro Plus. (2025). Investing.com. Retrieved March 22, 2025, from https://www.investing.com
  • Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x
  • Kamu Gözetimi Kurumu. (2025). TMS 7-Nakit Akış Tablosu. https://www.kgk.gov.tr/Portalv2Uploads/files/Duyurular/v2/TMS_TFRS_Setleri/2025/TMS7.pdf
  • Kısakürek, M., & Tüfekçi, M. (2022). Finansal kriz döneminde firmaların nakit akış profilleri ile finansal performanslarının karşılaştırılması: BIST’te bir araştırma. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 245–273. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.907698
  • Kregar, M. (2011). Cash flow based bankruptcy risk and stock returns in the US computer and electronics industry [Doctoral dissertation, University of Manchester]. Manchester Business School.
  • Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
  • Ntoung, A. T., de Oliveira, H. M. S., & Pereira, C. (2016). Classification of bankruptcy with cash flow information: Evidence from small size firms. Corporate Board: Role, Duties and Composition, 12(2), 86–95. https://doi.org/10.22495/cbv12i2c1art3
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
  • Park, C. (1951). Working capital and the operating cycle. The Accounting Review, 26(3), 299–307. http://www.jstor.org/stable/240377
  • Persky, J. (1990). Retrospectives: Ceteris paribus. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 187–193.
  • Podobnik, B., Horvatic, D., Petersen, A. M., Urošević, B., & Stanley, H. E. (2010). Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(34), 15006–15011. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1007725107
  • Reisz, A. S., & Perlich, C. (2007). A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Financial Stability, 3(2), 85–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2006.04.001
  • Rizzo, L., Valentinuz, G., Dario, O., & Valentino, P. (2020). Bankruptcy prediction: A model based on cash flow ratios—Evidence from selected European countries. International Journal of Business Administration, 11(6), 89. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijba.v11n6p89
  • Rodríguez-Masero, N., & López-Manjón, J. (2020). The usefulness of operating cash flow for predicting business bankruptcy in medium-sized firms. Review of Business Management, 22(4), 917–931. https://doi.org/10.7819/rbgn.v22i4.4079
  • Ruiz Estrada, M. A., & De Bonis, A. (2015). From ceteris paribus assumption to omnia mobilis assumption in the economic analysis: A critical review. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2577675
  • Satır, H., & Kısakürek, M. M. (2022). BİST imalat sanayi sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin incelenmesi. MAKU SOBED, 36, 33–46. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.1110379
  • Suranta, E., Midiastuty, P. P., Indriani, R., & Robiansyah, A. (2021). Pengujian pola siklus arus kas dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan. Jurnal Akuntansi, 13(2), 362–377. https://doi.org/10.28932/jam.v13i2.3890
  • Székely, B. (2025). Cash flow-based lending, bankruptcy resolution, and the macroeconomy (Working Paper No. 5226023). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5226023
  • Tüfekçi, B., & Karaca, S. S. (2019). İşletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin analizi: Uluslararası bir karşılaştırma. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(2), 157–180.
  • Wędzki, D. (2012). The sequence of cash flow in bankruptcy prediction: Evidence from Poland. Zeszyty Teoretyczne Rachunkowości, 68(124), 161–179.
  • Weeraratne, N. C. (2016). A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of ceteris paribus assumption in economic models. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 2(4), 506–509.
  • Williams, J. B. (1938). The theory of investment value. Harvard University Press.
  • Yılmaz, C., & Cavlak, H. (2020). Nakit akış yapısı-işletme yaşam döngüsü ile finansal sıkıntının birlikte değerlendirilmesi: BIST sürdürülebilirlik endeksi’nde bir araştırma. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(60), 806–832. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.743685

The Efficacy of Cash Flow Statements in Elucidating Bankruptcy Risk in High Market Value Enterprises

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 1, 74 - 90, 30.06.2025

Mehmet Kuzu

Öz

This study investigates the extent to which cash flow statement components explain bankruptcy risk among firms with high market capitalisation. By focusing on financially strong companies, the research ensures consistent result interpretation and provides a unique perspective within the literature. As of March 21, 2025, the sample includes the ten largest firms by market value. The analysis is based on robust regression methodology, with the Altman Z score as the dependent variable. Two separate models structure the independent variables: the first incorporates cash flows from operating, investing, and financing activities throughout the reporting period; the second includes beginning and end-of-period cash balances, total cash flow during the period, and leverage-adjusted cash flows. Findings reveal that operating and investing cash flows reduce bankruptcy risk, while financing cash flows increase it. While substantial end-of-period cash balances reflect technical liquidity and minimize risk, initial and period-total cash flows are associated with increased risk. Both models demonstrate an explanatory power of approximately 15%. This research's key contribution highlights that even firms with high market value may harbour liquidity-related financial vulnerabilities, challenging the assumption that such firması are immune to bankruptcy threats.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Statement of Cash Flows Altman Z Score Firm Bankruptcy Risk

Kaynakça

  • Aktaş, R., Karğın, S., & Karğın, M. (2012). Nakit akışlarının sağlandığı faaliyetler yöntemi ile işletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin incelenmesi. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 56, 101–118.
  • Alderson, M. J., & Betker, B. L. (1999). Assessing post-bankruptcy performance: An analysis of reorganized firms’ cash flows. Financial Management, 28(2), 68–82. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666196
  • Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589–609. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933
  • Altman, E. I. (2002). Revisiting credit scoring models in a Basel 2 environment (NYU Working Paper No. S-FI-02-11). SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1298829
  • Anthony, R. N. (1956). Funds statement analysis and the funds statement. The Accounting Review, 31(2), 196–202.
  • Arlov, O., Rankov, S., & Kotlica, S, (2013). Cash flow in predicting financial distress and bankruptcy. Advances in environmental science and energy planning, 42(2/3), 421-441.
  • Beaver, W. H. (1966). Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Journal of Accounting Research, 4(Supplement), 71–111. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171
  • Berk, J. B. (1995). A critique of size-related anomalies. The Review of Financial Studies, 8(2), 275–286. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/8.2.275
  • Boadway, R., Sato, M., & Tremblay, J.-F. (2022). Cash-flow business taxation revisited: Bankruptcy and asymmetric information. International Tax and Public Finance, 29(4), 922–952.
  • Campbell, J. Y., & Shiller, R. J. (1988). Stock prices, earnings, and expected dividends. The Journal of Finance, 43(3), 661–676. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb04598.x
  • Chen, N. F., Roll, R., & Ross, S. A. (1986). Economic forces and the stock market. Journal of Business, 59(3), 383–403. https://doi.org/10.1086/296344
  • Çavuş, G., & Başar, A. B. (2020). Finansal başarısızlık durumunun öngörülmesinde nakit akış bilgilerinin rolü. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 22(Özel Sayı), ös292–ös318. http://dx.doi.org/10.31460/mbdd.647542
  • Dereköy, F. (2020). Borç ödeme gücünün ölçülmesinde geleneksel oranlar ile nakit akış oranlarının karşılaştırılması: İmalat sektörü örneği. Uluslararası Ekonomi İşletme ve Politika Dergisi, 4(1), 153–170. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.670565
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
  • Elmas, B., & Topal, B. (2022). Yatırım faaliyetlerinden kaynaklanan nakit akışları ile firma değeri ve firma performansı ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Trends in Business and Economics, 36(4), 359–373. https://doi.org/10.5152/TBE.2022.220106
  • Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427–465. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1992.tb04398.x
  • FitzPatrick, P. J. (1932). A comparison of the ratios of successful industrial enterprises with those of failed companies. The Certified Public Accountant, 12(10–12), 598–731.
  • Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press.
  • Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. (1948). The utility analysis of choices involving risk. The Journal of Political Economy, 56(4), 279–304. https://doi.org/10.1086/256692
  • Gentry, J. A., Newbold, P., & Whitford, D. T. (1985). Predicting bankruptcy: If cash flow’s not the bottom line, what is? Financial Analysts Journal, 41(5), 47–56. http://www.jstor.org/stable/4478871
  • Gombola, M. J., Haskins, M. E., Ketz, J. E., & Williams, D. D. (1987). Cash flow in bankruptcy prediction. Financial Management, 16(4), 55–65. https://doi.org/10.2307/3666109
  • Hoover, K. D. (2000). The econometric consequences of the ceteris paribus condition in economic models. Journal of Econometrics, 95(1), 1–32.
  • Huber, P. J. (1981). Robust statistics. Wiley.
  • Investing Pro Plus. (2025). Investing.com. Retrieved March 22, 2025, from https://www.investing.com
  • Jegadeesh, N., & Titman, S. (1993). Returns to buying winners and selling losers: Implications for stock market efficiency. The Journal of Finance, 48(1), 65–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04702.x
  • Kamu Gözetimi Kurumu. (2025). TMS 7-Nakit Akış Tablosu. https://www.kgk.gov.tr/Portalv2Uploads/files/Duyurular/v2/TMS_TFRS_Setleri/2025/TMS7.pdf
  • Kısakürek, M., & Tüfekçi, M. (2022). Finansal kriz döneminde firmaların nakit akış profilleri ile finansal performanslarının karşılaştırılması: BIST’te bir araştırma. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 245–273. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.907698
  • Kregar, M. (2011). Cash flow based bankruptcy risk and stock returns in the US computer and electronics industry [Doctoral dissertation, University of Manchester]. Manchester Business School.
  • Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974
  • Ntoung, A. T., de Oliveira, H. M. S., & Pereira, C. (2016). Classification of bankruptcy with cash flow information: Evidence from small size firms. Corporate Board: Role, Duties and Composition, 12(2), 86–95. https://doi.org/10.22495/cbv12i2c1art3
  • Ohlson, J. A. (1980). Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), 109–131. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490395
  • Park, C. (1951). Working capital and the operating cycle. The Accounting Review, 26(3), 299–307. http://www.jstor.org/stable/240377
  • Persky, J. (1990). Retrospectives: Ceteris paribus. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(2), 187–193.
  • Podobnik, B., Horvatic, D., Petersen, A. M., Urošević, B., & Stanley, H. E. (2010). Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(34), 15006–15011. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1007725107
  • Reisz, A. S., & Perlich, C. (2007). A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction. Journal of Financial Stability, 3(2), 85–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2006.04.001
  • Rizzo, L., Valentinuz, G., Dario, O., & Valentino, P. (2020). Bankruptcy prediction: A model based on cash flow ratios—Evidence from selected European countries. International Journal of Business Administration, 11(6), 89. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijba.v11n6p89
  • Rodríguez-Masero, N., & López-Manjón, J. (2020). The usefulness of operating cash flow for predicting business bankruptcy in medium-sized firms. Review of Business Management, 22(4), 917–931. https://doi.org/10.7819/rbgn.v22i4.4079
  • Ruiz Estrada, M. A., & De Bonis, A. (2015). From ceteris paribus assumption to omnia mobilis assumption in the economic analysis: A critical review. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2577675
  • Satır, H., & Kısakürek, M. M. (2022). BİST imalat sanayi sektöründe faaliyet gösteren işletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin incelenmesi. MAKU SOBED, 36, 33–46. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.1110379
  • Suranta, E., Midiastuty, P. P., Indriani, R., & Robiansyah, A. (2021). Pengujian pola siklus arus kas dalam memprediksi kebangkrutan. Jurnal Akuntansi, 13(2), 362–377. https://doi.org/10.28932/jam.v13i2.3890
  • Székely, B. (2025). Cash flow-based lending, bankruptcy resolution, and the macroeconomy (Working Paper No. 5226023). Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5226023
  • Tüfekçi, B., & Karaca, S. S. (2019). İşletmelerin nakit akış profillerinin analizi: Uluslararası bir karşılaştırma. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(2), 157–180.
  • Wędzki, D. (2012). The sequence of cash flow in bankruptcy prediction: Evidence from Poland. Zeszyty Teoretyczne Rachunkowości, 68(124), 161–179.
  • Weeraratne, N. C. (2016). A comparative analysis of the effectiveness of ceteris paribus assumption in economic models. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science, Engineering and Technology, 2(4), 506–509.
  • Williams, J. B. (1938). The theory of investment value. Harvard University Press.
  • Yılmaz, C., & Cavlak, H. (2020). Nakit akış yapısı-işletme yaşam döngüsü ile finansal sıkıntının birlikte değerlendirilmesi: BIST sürdürülebilirlik endeksi’nde bir araştırma. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(60), 806–832. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.743685
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mehmet Kuzu 0000-0001-5354-4368

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 6 Mayıs 2025
Kabul Tarihi 10 Haziran 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

ISNAD Kuzu, Mehmet. “Piyasa Değeri Yüksek İşletmelerde Nakit Akış Tablosunun İflas Riskini Açıklama Gücü”. Harran Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 1 (Haziran 2025), 74-90.
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