Granger Causality Relationship Between Agricultural Gross National Product and Agricultural Exports: The Turkey Case
Öz
This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between the agricultural gross national product and agricultural export in Turkey between the years 1998-2017. In the determination of the relationship, gross domestic product and the annual agricultural export data (1998-2017) were used. Initially, the unit root test was performed to identify long-term analysis. ADF method was used for the unit root test. In the long-term cointegration determination between the variables, Johansen cointegration analysis was performed. The presence of cointegration between the variables was determined in the cointegration test. The error correction model (VECM) was estimated based on the existence of a long-term relationship. Granger causality test was performed to determine the direction of the relationship between the variables. The causality analysis results reveal a bidirectional relationship between agricultural gross national product and agricultural exports in Turkey. The change in agricultural gross national product will also affect agricultural exports in an additional direction or the opposite. The growing importance of agriculture and supporting it in the economy will have a positive impact on the increase in national income.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Agricultural exports Agricultural gross national product Cointegration Johansen cointegration Turkey
Kaynakça
- Akinboade,O., Braimoh,L.2009. International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test, International Journal of Tourism Research, Volume 12, Issue 2, Pages 149-163
- Bilgin, C., Şahbaz,A. 2009. Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences(http://sbe.gantep.edu.tr) 2009 8(1): 177-198 ISSN: 1303-0094
- Carter,M.R.,Barham B.L., Mesbah,D.1996. Agricultural Export Booms and the Rural Poor in Chile, Guatemala, and Paraguay, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 31, No. 1 pp. 33-65
- Demirhan,E. 2005. Causal Relationship Between Growth and Exports: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Ankara University Faculty of Social Sciences, 60-4
- Deran, A. 2005, Calculation and Applications of Costs in Orchards within the Framework of Accounting Theory, PhD Thesis, Gazi University Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara
- Doğan ,A.2009. Contribution of Agriculture to Economic Development Process: The Case of Turkey. Economic Research Journal, Volume 9, Issue 17, Pages 365 – 392
- Gül.E., Ekinci, A. 2006. Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Turkey: 1984 – 2003, Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences vol: 06 Sayı.1
- Hausmann R., Hwang,J., Rodrik,D. 2007. What you export matters, Journal of Economic Growth volume 12, pages 1–25
- Hoffmann, R. Lee,C.G., Ramasamy,B., Yeung,M.2005. FDI and pollution: a granger causality test using panel data. Journal of International Development, Pages 311- 317
- Lee, C.G.,Ramasamy,B., Yeung,M. 2005. Journal of International Development, Volume17, Issue3, Pages 311-317
- McCracken, MW, 2007, Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality, Journal of econometrics, 2007 – Elsevier
- Picard, P.M., Zeng, D.Z.2004. Agricultural sector and industrial agglomeration. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 77, Issue 1, June 2005, Pages 75-106.
- Rehber, E., Vural, H. 2018. Agricultural Economics, Ekin Printing Publication Distribution
- Ruttan, V.W. 2002. Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16 No. 4, pp. 161-184.
- Turhan, Ş., Tamer, E., 2017, Agricultural Development of Bursa from 1960 to 2015, Food Industry in Bursa, ISBN: 978-605-66723-2-3, Dekupe Tanıtım A.Ş. Bursa. 189-198.
- Tiffin, R., Irz, X. 2006. Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, Volume 35, Issue 1, Pages 79-89
- Yapraklı, S. 2010Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: Co-integration and Causality Analysis for Turkey Atatürk University Journal of Social Sciences Institute ,Vol 10, Issue 2.
- Yuan,K.H, Bentler,P.M.1998. Normal theory based test statistics in structuralequation modelling. British Journal of Murhrmatical and Srirrital Psychalogy, (51):289-309.
Öz
Kaynakça
- Akinboade,O., Braimoh,L.2009. International tourism and economic development in South Africa: a Granger causality test, International Journal of Tourism Research, Volume 12, Issue 2, Pages 149-163
- Bilgin, C., Şahbaz,A. 2009. Causality Relations between Growth and Export in Turkey, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences(http://sbe.gantep.edu.tr) 2009 8(1): 177-198 ISSN: 1303-0094
- Carter,M.R.,Barham B.L., Mesbah,D.1996. Agricultural Export Booms and the Rural Poor in Chile, Guatemala, and Paraguay, Latin American Research Review, Vol. 31, No. 1 pp. 33-65
- Demirhan,E. 2005. Causal Relationship Between Growth and Exports: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Ankara University Faculty of Social Sciences, 60-4
- Deran, A. 2005, Calculation and Applications of Costs in Orchards within the Framework of Accounting Theory, PhD Thesis, Gazi University Institute of Social Sciences, Ankara
- Doğan ,A.2009. Contribution of Agriculture to Economic Development Process: The Case of Turkey. Economic Research Journal, Volume 9, Issue 17, Pages 365 – 392
- Gül.E., Ekinci, A. 2006. Causal Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Inflation in Turkey: 1984 – 2003, Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences vol: 06 Sayı.1
- Hausmann R., Hwang,J., Rodrik,D. 2007. What you export matters, Journal of Economic Growth volume 12, pages 1–25
- Hoffmann, R. Lee,C.G., Ramasamy,B., Yeung,M.2005. FDI and pollution: a granger causality test using panel data. Journal of International Development, Pages 311- 317
- Lee, C.G.,Ramasamy,B., Yeung,M. 2005. Journal of International Development, Volume17, Issue3, Pages 311-317
- McCracken, MW, 2007, Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality, Journal of econometrics, 2007 – Elsevier
- Picard, P.M., Zeng, D.Z.2004. Agricultural sector and industrial agglomeration. Journal of Development Economics, Volume 77, Issue 1, June 2005, Pages 75-106.
- Rehber, E., Vural, H. 2018. Agricultural Economics, Ekin Printing Publication Distribution
- Ruttan, V.W. 2002. Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16 No. 4, pp. 161-184.
- Turhan, Ş., Tamer, E., 2017, Agricultural Development of Bursa from 1960 to 2015, Food Industry in Bursa, ISBN: 978-605-66723-2-3, Dekupe Tanıtım A.Ş. Bursa. 189-198.
- Tiffin, R., Irz, X. 2006. Is agriculture the engine of growth? Agricultural Economics, Volume 35, Issue 1, Pages 79-89
- Yapraklı, S. 2010Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth: Co-integration and Causality Analysis for Turkey Atatürk University Journal of Social Sciences Institute ,Vol 10, Issue 2.
- Yuan,K.H, Bentler,P.M.1998. Normal theory based test statistics in structuralequation modelling. British Journal of Murhrmatical and Srirrital Psychalogy, (51):289-309.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Tarımsal Biyoteknoloji (Diğer) |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 11 Kasım 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020 Cilt: 14 Sayı: 41 |
Kaynak Göster
Journal of Biological and Environmental Sciences is the official journal of Bursa Uludag University
Bursa Uludag University, Gorukle Campus, 16059, Bursa, Türkiye.