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İklim Değişikliğinin Güvenlikleştirilmesi: Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde Kümeleme Analizi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 15 - 27, 30.06.2025

Fatih Demir , Fevzi Kırbaşoğlu , Muhammet Negiz

https://doi.org/10.62425/jirs.1710192

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’ndeki yedi ilde (Artvin, Bayburt, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize, Trabzon) 2009-2021 yılları arasındaki iklim değişikliği ve çevresel göstergelerin güvenlik perspektifinden değerlendirilmesini amaçlamaktadır. Disiplinler arası bir yaklaşımla, K-means (K-ortalama) kümeleme analizi ve temel bileşenler analizi (PCA) kullanılarak sıcaklık anomalileri, PM10 konsantrasyonları, tehlikeli atık üretimi ve net göç hızı değişkenleri analiz edilmiştir. Toplam 91 gözlemden oluşan veri seti üzerinde gerçekleştirilen analizler, bölgede üç farklı çevresel risk kümesinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Trabzon’un yüksek risk profiliyle belirgin şekilde ayrıştığı, Artvin-Bayburt-Giresun grubunun düşük risk seviyesinde konumlandığı tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular, Kopenhag Okulu’nun güvenlikleştirme teorisi çerçevesinde değerlendirildiğinde, bölgede iklim değişikliğinin güvenlikleştirilmesi için gerekli unsurların mevcut olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışma, iklim değişikliğinin bölgesel etkilerinin heterojen yapısını ortaya koyarak, tek tip politika yaklaşımları yerine il bazında farklılaştırılmış güvenlik stratejilerinin gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güvenlikleştirme Kümele Analizi K-means Doğu Karadeniz İklim Değişikliği

Kaynakça

  • Aunan, K. ve Wang, S. (2014). Internal migration and urbanization in China: Impacts on population exposure to household air pollution (2000–2010). Science of the Total Environment, 481, 186–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.073
  • Ay, M., Özbakır, L., Kulluk, S., Gülmez, B., Öztürk, G., ve Özer, S. (2023). FC-Kmeans: Fixed-centered K-means algorithm. Expert Systems with Applications, 211, 118656.
  • Azevedo, B. F., Rocha, A. M. A., ve Pereira, A. I. (2024, May). A multi-objective clustering algorithm integrating intra-clustering and inter-clustering measures. In International conference on optimization and learning (pp. 97-108). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
  • Balzacq, T. (2005). The three faces of securitization: Political agency, audience and context. European Journal of International Relations, 11(2), 171-201.
  • Boas, I. (2015). Climate Migration and Security: Securitisation as a strategy in climate change politics. New York: Routledge.
  • Buzan, B. (1991). People, states and fear: An agenda for ınternational security studies in the Post-Cold War era. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
  • Buzan, B., ve Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and powers: The structure of ınternational security. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Buzan, B., Wæver, O. ve de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A new framework for analysis. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
  • Carrasco-Escobar, G., Schwarz, L., Miranda, J. ve Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Revealing the air pollution burden associated with internal migration in Peru. Scientific Reports, 10, 19349. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64043-y
  • Chen, S., Oliva, P. ve Zhang, P. (2017). The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3451332
  • ÇED (2025). Çevresel Etki Değerlendirmesi, İzin ve Denetim Genel Müdürlüğü. https://ced.csb.gov.tr/
  • Çelik, O. ve Akça, E. (2024). Investigating the validity of climate migration: Empirical evidence from the most polluted countries. World Journal of Applied Economics, 10(1), 33–50. https://doi.org10.22440/wjae.10.1.3
  • Çolak, B., Durdağ, Z. ve Edoğmuş, P. (2016). K-Means algoritması ile otomatik kümeleme. El-Cezerî Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 3(2), 315-323.
  • Dağ, R. ve Tüfekçi, Ö., (2022). Introduction. In Trends and transformations in world politics (pp. 1-25), Lanham: Lexington Books.
  • Dalby, S. (2009). Security and environmental change. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Doğanay, H.A., Orman, A. ve Dener, M., (2022). Siber güvenlik amaçlı büyük veri görselleştirme: BETH veri seti. El-Cezerî Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 9(4), 1572-1582. https://doi.org/10.31202/ecjse.1209586
  • El Khattabi, M. Z., El Jai, M., Lahmadi, Y., Oughdir, L. ve Rahhali, M. (2024). Understanding the interplay between metrics, normalization forms, and data distribution in k-means clustering: A comparative simulation study. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 49(3), 2987-3007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-023-07741-9
  • Gewers, F. L., Ferreira, G. R., Arruda, H. F. D., Silva, F. N., Comin, C. H., Amancio, D. R. ve Costa, L. D. F. (2021). Principal component analysis: A natural approach to data exploration. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 54(4), 1-34.
  • Guo, Q., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Yi, M. ve Zhang, T. (2022). Environmental migration effects of air pollution: Micro-level evidence from China. Environmental Pollution, 274, 118263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.118263
  • Homer-Dixon, T. (1999). Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Hu, H., Liu, J., Zhang, X., ve Fang, M. (2023). An effective and adaptable K-means algorithm for big data cluster analysis. Pattern Recognition, 139, 109404.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018). Global warming of 1.5°c. special report. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • İzol, R. ve Kaval, F. (2023). Kopenhag okulu bağlamında Türkiye’deki siyasi aktörlerin iklim değişikliğine yönelik söylemlerinin analizi. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 23(1), 18-32. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.1130854
  • Jeong, D. H., Ziemkiewicz, C., Fisher, B., Ribarsky, W. ve Chang, R. (2009, June). iPCA: An Interactive system for PCA‐based visual analytics. In Computer Graphics Forum (Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 767-774). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Liu, H., Chen, J., Dy, J., ve Fu, Y. (2023). Transforming complex problems into K-means solutions. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 45(7), 9149-9168.
  • Liu, Z. ve Yu, L. (2020). Stay or leave? The role of air pollution in urban migration choices. Ecological Economics, 172, 106780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106780
  • McDonald, M. (2013). Discourses of climate security. Political Geography, 33, 42-51.
  • MEDAS (2025). Merkezi Dağıtım Sistemi, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95velocale=tr
  • Meteoblue (2025). meteoblue.com
  • Methmann, C. ve Rothe, D. (2012). Politics for the day after tomorrow: The logic of apocalypse in global climate politics. Security Dialogue, 43(4), 323-344.
  • Oliveira, G. V., Coutinho, F. P., Campello, R. J. ve Naldi, M. C. (2017). Improving k-means through distributed scalable metaheuristics. Neurocomputing, 246, 45-57.
  • Oti, E. U., Olusola, M. O., Eze, F. C. ve Enogwe, S. U. (2021). Comprehensive review of k-means clustering algorithms. Criterion, 12, 22-23.
  • Özerdem, F. ve Barlas, B. (2021). Kopenhag okulu çerçevesinde 2020 ve sonrası dünya politikasının yeni sorunu: İklim değişikliği ve iklim göçmenleri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (41), 273-302.
  • Reuveny, R. (2007). Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656-673.
  • Săndică, A. M., Dudian, M. ve Ștefănescu, A. (2018). Air pollution and human development in Europe: A new index using principal component analysis. Sustainability, 10(2), 312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020312
  • Shen, H., Tao, S., Chen, Y., Ciais, P., Güneralp, B., Ru, M., Zhong, Q., et al. (2017). Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China. Science Advances, 3(7). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700300
  • SİM (2025). Sürekli İzleme Merkezi. https://sim.csb.gov.tr
  • Sönmez-Kaya, S. ve Ilgıt, A. (2021). İklim değişikliği ve çevresel güvenlik: Türkiye örneği. Alternatif Politika, 13(1), 175–207.
  • Stritzel, H. (2007). Towards a theory of securitization: Copenhagen and beyond. European Journal of International Relations, 13(3), 357-383.
  • Trombetta, M. J. (2008). Environmental security and climate change: Analysing the discourse. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 21(4), 585-602.
  • Trombetta, M. J. (2010). Rethinking the securitization of the environment. İçinde T. Balzacq (Ed.), Securitization theory: How security problems emerge and dissolve (ss. 135-149). London: Routledge.
  • Tutar, Y. N., (2023). İklim değişikliğinin Türkiye’de politik sürdürülebilirliği. 6. Siyaset Bilimi ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Kongresi (s. 8). Trabzon, Türkiye.
  • Vural, Ç. (2018). Küresel iklim değişikliği ve güvenlik. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(1), 57-85. https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.422726
  • Wæver, O. (1995). Securitization and desecuritization. İçinde R. Lipschutz (Ed.), On security (ss. 46-86). New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Wæver, O. (2011). Politics, security, theory. Security Dialogue, 42(4-5), 465-480.
  • Wallerstein, I. (1974). The modern world-system. New York: Academic Press.
  • Williams, M. C. (2003). Words, images, enemies: Securitization and international politics. International Studies Quarterly, 47(4), 511-531.
  • Zhan, C., Jiang, W., Li, J., Xu, H. ve Sha, W. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on human activity and air quality in China. 2020 IEEE International Symposium on Product Compliance Engineering-Asia (ISPCE-CN). https://doi.org/10.1109/ISPCE-CN51288.2020.9321817

The Securitization of Climate Change: Cluster Analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Region

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 15 - 27, 30.06.2025

Fatih Demir , Fevzi Kırbaşoğlu , Muhammet Negiz

https://doi.org/10.62425/jirs.1710192

Öz

This study aims to evaluate climate change and environmental indicators from security perspective between 2009 and 2021 in seven provinces (Artvin, Bayburt, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize, Trabzon) in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Türkiye. In this study, an interdisciplinary approach was used to analyze temperature anomalies, PM10 concentrations, hazardous waste generation, and net migration rate variables using K-means cluster analysis and principal component analysis (PCA). Analyses performed on dataset consisting of a total of 91 observations revealed the existence of three different environmental risk clusters in the region. It has been determined that Trabzon stands out clearly with its high risk profile, while the Artvin-Bayburt-Giresun group is positioned at a low risk level. When evaluated within the framework of the Copenhagen School’s securitization theory, the findings show that the necessary elements for the securitization of climate change are present in the region. The study highlights the heterogeneous nature of the regional impacts of climate change and emphasizes the need for differentiated security strategies at the provincial level instead of a one-size-fits-all policy approach.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Securitization Cluster Analysis K-means The Eastern Black Sea Region Climate Change

Kaynakça

  • Aunan, K. ve Wang, S. (2014). Internal migration and urbanization in China: Impacts on population exposure to household air pollution (2000–2010). Science of the Total Environment, 481, 186–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.073
  • Ay, M., Özbakır, L., Kulluk, S., Gülmez, B., Öztürk, G., ve Özer, S. (2023). FC-Kmeans: Fixed-centered K-means algorithm. Expert Systems with Applications, 211, 118656.
  • Azevedo, B. F., Rocha, A. M. A., ve Pereira, A. I. (2024, May). A multi-objective clustering algorithm integrating intra-clustering and inter-clustering measures. In International conference on optimization and learning (pp. 97-108). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland.
  • Balzacq, T. (2005). The three faces of securitization: Political agency, audience and context. European Journal of International Relations, 11(2), 171-201.
  • Boas, I. (2015). Climate Migration and Security: Securitisation as a strategy in climate change politics. New York: Routledge.
  • Buzan, B. (1991). People, states and fear: An agenda for ınternational security studies in the Post-Cold War era. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
  • Buzan, B., ve Wæver, O. (2003). Regions and powers: The structure of ınternational security. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Buzan, B., Wæver, O. ve de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A new framework for analysis. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
  • Carrasco-Escobar, G., Schwarz, L., Miranda, J. ve Benmarhnia, T. (2020). Revealing the air pollution burden associated with internal migration in Peru. Scientific Reports, 10, 19349. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64043-y
  • Chen, S., Oliva, P. ve Zhang, P. (2017). The effect of air pollution on migration: Evidence from China. Social Science Research Network. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3451332
  • ÇED (2025). Çevresel Etki Değerlendirmesi, İzin ve Denetim Genel Müdürlüğü. https://ced.csb.gov.tr/
  • Çelik, O. ve Akça, E. (2024). Investigating the validity of climate migration: Empirical evidence from the most polluted countries. World Journal of Applied Economics, 10(1), 33–50. https://doi.org10.22440/wjae.10.1.3
  • Çolak, B., Durdağ, Z. ve Edoğmuş, P. (2016). K-Means algoritması ile otomatik kümeleme. El-Cezerî Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 3(2), 315-323.
  • Dağ, R. ve Tüfekçi, Ö., (2022). Introduction. In Trends and transformations in world politics (pp. 1-25), Lanham: Lexington Books.
  • Dalby, S. (2009). Security and environmental change. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Doğanay, H.A., Orman, A. ve Dener, M., (2022). Siber güvenlik amaçlı büyük veri görselleştirme: BETH veri seti. El-Cezerî Fen ve Mühendislik Dergisi, 9(4), 1572-1582. https://doi.org/10.31202/ecjse.1209586
  • El Khattabi, M. Z., El Jai, M., Lahmadi, Y., Oughdir, L. ve Rahhali, M. (2024). Understanding the interplay between metrics, normalization forms, and data distribution in k-means clustering: A comparative simulation study. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 49(3), 2987-3007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-023-07741-9
  • Gewers, F. L., Ferreira, G. R., Arruda, H. F. D., Silva, F. N., Comin, C. H., Amancio, D. R. ve Costa, L. D. F. (2021). Principal component analysis: A natural approach to data exploration. ACM Computing Surveys (CSUR), 54(4), 1-34.
  • Guo, Q., Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Yi, M. ve Zhang, T. (2022). Environmental migration effects of air pollution: Micro-level evidence from China. Environmental Pollution, 274, 118263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2021.118263
  • Homer-Dixon, T. (1999). Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Hu, H., Liu, J., Zhang, X., ve Fang, M. (2023). An effective and adaptable K-means algorithm for big data cluster analysis. Pattern Recognition, 139, 109404.
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018). Global warming of 1.5°c. special report. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • İzol, R. ve Kaval, F. (2023). Kopenhag okulu bağlamında Türkiye’deki siyasi aktörlerin iklim değişikliğine yönelik söylemlerinin analizi. Akdeniz İİBF Dergisi, 23(1), 18-32. https://doi.org/10.25294/auiibfd.1130854
  • Jeong, D. H., Ziemkiewicz, C., Fisher, B., Ribarsky, W. ve Chang, R. (2009, June). iPCA: An Interactive system for PCA‐based visual analytics. In Computer Graphics Forum (Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 767-774). Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
  • Liu, H., Chen, J., Dy, J., ve Fu, Y. (2023). Transforming complex problems into K-means solutions. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 45(7), 9149-9168.
  • Liu, Z. ve Yu, L. (2020). Stay or leave? The role of air pollution in urban migration choices. Ecological Economics, 172, 106780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106780
  • McDonald, M. (2013). Discourses of climate security. Political Geography, 33, 42-51.
  • MEDAS (2025). Merkezi Dağıtım Sistemi, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=95velocale=tr
  • Meteoblue (2025). meteoblue.com
  • Methmann, C. ve Rothe, D. (2012). Politics for the day after tomorrow: The logic of apocalypse in global climate politics. Security Dialogue, 43(4), 323-344.
  • Oliveira, G. V., Coutinho, F. P., Campello, R. J. ve Naldi, M. C. (2017). Improving k-means through distributed scalable metaheuristics. Neurocomputing, 246, 45-57.
  • Oti, E. U., Olusola, M. O., Eze, F. C. ve Enogwe, S. U. (2021). Comprehensive review of k-means clustering algorithms. Criterion, 12, 22-23.
  • Özerdem, F. ve Barlas, B. (2021). Kopenhag okulu çerçevesinde 2020 ve sonrası dünya politikasının yeni sorunu: İklim değişikliği ve iklim göçmenleri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (41), 273-302.
  • Reuveny, R. (2007). Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict. Political Geography, 26(6), 656-673.
  • Săndică, A. M., Dudian, M. ve Ștefănescu, A. (2018). Air pollution and human development in Europe: A new index using principal component analysis. Sustainability, 10(2), 312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020312
  • Shen, H., Tao, S., Chen, Y., Ciais, P., Güneralp, B., Ru, M., Zhong, Q., et al. (2017). Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China. Science Advances, 3(7). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700300
  • SİM (2025). Sürekli İzleme Merkezi. https://sim.csb.gov.tr
  • Sönmez-Kaya, S. ve Ilgıt, A. (2021). İklim değişikliği ve çevresel güvenlik: Türkiye örneği. Alternatif Politika, 13(1), 175–207.
  • Stritzel, H. (2007). Towards a theory of securitization: Copenhagen and beyond. European Journal of International Relations, 13(3), 357-383.
  • Trombetta, M. J. (2008). Environmental security and climate change: Analysing the discourse. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 21(4), 585-602.
  • Trombetta, M. J. (2010). Rethinking the securitization of the environment. İçinde T. Balzacq (Ed.), Securitization theory: How security problems emerge and dissolve (ss. 135-149). London: Routledge.
  • Tutar, Y. N., (2023). İklim değişikliğinin Türkiye’de politik sürdürülebilirliği. 6. Siyaset Bilimi ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Kongresi (s. 8). Trabzon, Türkiye.
  • Vural, Ç. (2018). Küresel iklim değişikliği ve güvenlik. Güvenlik Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(1), 57-85. https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.422726
  • Wæver, O. (1995). Securitization and desecuritization. İçinde R. Lipschutz (Ed.), On security (ss. 46-86). New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Wæver, O. (2011). Politics, security, theory. Security Dialogue, 42(4-5), 465-480.
  • Wallerstein, I. (1974). The modern world-system. New York: Academic Press.
  • Williams, M. C. (2003). Words, images, enemies: Securitization and international politics. International Studies Quarterly, 47(4), 511-531.
  • Zhan, C., Jiang, W., Li, J., Xu, H. ve Sha, W. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on human activity and air quality in China. 2020 IEEE International Symposium on Product Compliance Engineering-Asia (ISPCE-CN). https://doi.org/10.1109/ISPCE-CN51288.2020.9321817
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Bölgesel Çalışmalar, Uluslararası Güvenlik
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Fatih Demir 0000-0001-7551-0302

Fevzi Kırbaşoğlu 0000-0002-8797-4750

Muhammet Negiz 0000-0002-6939-7742

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2025
Kabul Tarihi 24 Haziran 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Demir, F., Kırbaşoğlu, F., & Negiz, M. (2025). İklim Değişikliğinin Güvenlikleştirilmesi: Doğu Karadeniz Bölgesi’nde Kümeleme Analizi. Uluslararası İlişkiler Çalışmaları Dergisi, 5(1), 15-27. https://doi.org/10.62425/jirs.1710192
 Kapak Resmi İndir

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