Türkiye'de Sera Gazı Emisyonu ve Borsa Performansı Arasındaki İlişki: BİST 100 ve BİST Sektör Endeksleri Üzerine Bir Araştırma
Yıl 2025,
Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 150 - 164, 30.05.2025
Çağrı Korkmazgöz
,
Serkan Şahin
,
İlhan Ege
Öz
Amaç: Bu araştırmanın amacı, Türkiye'de toplam sera gazı ve sektör kaynaklı sera gazı salınımları ile Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Endeksi ve BIST sektör endeksleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesidir.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Araştırmada BIST 100 Endeksi ile toplam sera gazı salınımı ve BIST sektör endeksleri ile sektör kaynaklı sera gazı salınımları arasındaki ilişkiler Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) nedensellik analizleriyle incelenmiştir.
Bulgular: Analizler neticesinde BIST Sınai Endeksi ile endüstri kaynaklı sera gazı salınımı ve BIST Gıda Endeksi ile tarım sektörü kaynaklı sera gazı salınımı arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ayrıca, toplam sera gazı salınımından BIST 100 Endeksine ve enerji sektörü kaynaklı sera gazı salınımından BIST Elektrik Endeksine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik bulunduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Sınırlılıklar: Bu araştırma sera gazı salınımları ile Borsa İstanbul arasındaki etkileşime odaklanmış olup sera gazı salınımlarının sebep olduğu diğer etkiler kapsam dışında bırakmıştır. Bunun yanı sıra, analizler Türkiye üzerine olup diğer gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke örnekleri kapsam dışında bırakılmıştır.
Özgünlük/Değer: Sera gazı salınımı ile borsa performansı arasındaki etkileşimi araştıran sınırlı sayıda araştırma bulunmaktadır. Literatür incelendiğinde, borsa performansı ile sera gazı salınımları arasındaki ilişkilerin belirgin olmadığı görülmektedir. Bu çalışma söz konusu eksikliğin giderilmesine katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca bu çalışma yatırımcıların, sera gazı salınımına sebep olan sektörleri Borsa İstanbul’da fiyatlamakta olduklarına dikkat çekmektedir.
Kaynakça
- Akbar, U. S., Bhutto, N. A., & Rajput, S. K. O. (2024). How do carbon emissions and eco taxation affect
the equity market performance: An empirical evidence from 28 OECD economies. Environmental
Science and Pollution Research, 31(34), 46312-46324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-
29882-y
- Alessi, L., Ossola, E., & Panzica, R. (2020). The Greenium matters: greenhouse gas emissions,
environmental disclosures, and stock prices, CefES, Center for European Studies, 1-36. No 418.
http://repec.dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper418.pdf
- Aswani, J., Raghunandan, A., & Rajgopal, S. (2024). Are carbon emissions associated with stock
returns? Review of Finance, 28(1), 75-106. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad013
- Benchora, I., & Galanti, S. (2024). Verified carbon emissions and stock returns in the EU Emissions
Trading System. Energy Policy, 193, 114264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114264
- Carney M. (2015). Breaking the tragedy of the horizon-climate change and financial stability. Speech
Given At Lloyd’s of London, 29, 220-230. https://www.bis.org/review/r151009a.pdf
- Chang, C. L., Ilomäki, J., Laurila, H., & McAleer, M. (2020). Causality between CO2 emissions and
stock markets. Energies, 13(11), 2893. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13112893
- Choi, B., & Luo, L. (2021). Does the market value greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from multicountry firm data. The British Accounting Review, 53(1), 100909.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2020.100909
- Değer, M. K., & Pata, U. K. (2017). Türkiye’de dış ticaret ve karbondioksit salınımı arasındaki ilişkilerin
simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleriyle analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 18(1), 31-44.
- Dutta, A., Bouri, E., & Noor, M. H. (2018). Return and volatility linkages between CO2 emission and
clean energy stock prices. Energy, 164, 803-810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.055
- EPA (2024). Global Greenhouse Gas Overview. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/globalgreenhouse-gas-overview
- Faccini, R., Rastin M., & Skiadopoulos, G. (2021). Are climate change risks priced in the U.S. Stock
market?, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers, No. 169, Danmarks Nationalbank,
Copenhagen. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/245990/1/dnwp169.pdf
- Fedorova, E., & Iasakova, P. (2024). The impact of climate change news on the US stock market. The
Journal of Risk Finance, 25(2), 293-320. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-06-2023-0133
- Griffin, P. A., Lont, D. H., & Sun, E. Y. (2017). The relevance to investors of greenhouse gas emission
disclosures. Contemporary Accounting Research, 34(2), 1265-1297.https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12298
- Grippa, P., Schmittmann, J., & Suntheim, F. (2019). Climate change and financial risk: Central banks
and financial regulators are starting to factor in climate change. Finance & Development, 56(004),
26-29. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/pdf/climate-change-central-banksand-financial-risk-grippa.pdf
- Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics (4. Baskı). McGraw-Hill.
- Güneysu, Y., & Atasel, O. Y. (2022). Karbon emisyonları ile finansal performans arasındaki ilişkinin
incelenmesi: BIST100 endeksinde bir araştırma. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32(3),
1183-1193. https://doi.org/10.18069/firatsbed.1125859
- Habiba, U., Xinbang, C., & Ahmad, R. I. (2021). The influence of stock market and financial institution
development on carbon emissions with the importance of renewable energy consumption and
foreign direct investment in G20 countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28,
67677-67688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15321-3
- Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables: Using asymptotic
and bootsrap distributions: Theory and application. Apllied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
- He, X., & Liu, Y. (2018). The public environmental awareness and the air pollution effect in Chinese
stock market. Journal of Cleaner Production, 185(1), 446-454.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.294
- Hengge, M., Panizza, U., & Varghese, M. R. (2023). Carbon policy surprises and stock returns: Signals
from financial markets. International Monetary Fund, WP/23/13. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/01/27/Carbon-Policy-Surprises-andStock-Returns-Signals-from-Financial-Markets-528644
- Kırca, M., & Karagöl, V. (2018). Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları ve cari açık arasındaki simetrik ve asimetrik
nedensellik ilişkilerinin analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 10(18),
59-71. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.428607
- Lepori, G. M. (2016). Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of
Empirical Finance, 35, 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.10.008
- Levy, T., & Yagil, J. (2011). Air pollution and stock returns in the US. Journal of Economic Psychology,
32, 374-383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2011.01.004
- Li, W., Liu, T., & Wei, M. (2023). Heterogeneous response of the stock market to CO2 emissions in
China. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 1074262. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.1074262
- Mankiw, N.G., & Scarth, W. (2008) Macroeconomics (3. Baskı). Worth Publishers.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (2023). NOAA's
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (An Introduction). https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/
- Noh, J. H., & Park, H. (2023). Greenhouse gas emissions and stock market volatility: An empirical
analysis of OECD countries. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and
Management, 15(1), 58-80. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0124
- Oestreich, A. M., & Tsiakas, I. (2015). Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU
emissions trading scheme. Journal of Banking & Finance, 58, 294-308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.005
- Paramati, S. R., Mo, D., & Gupta, R. (2017). The effects of stock market growth and renewable energy
use on CO2 emissions: Evidence from G20 countries. Energy Economics, 66, 360-371.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.06.025
- Reshetnikova, L., Ovechkin, D., Devyatkov, A., Chernova, G., & Boldyreva, N. (2023). Carbon
emissions and stock returns: The case of Russia. Journal of Risk and Financial Management,
16(8), 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16080370
- Sadorsky, P. (2011). Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European
frontier economies. Energy policy, 39(2), 999-1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.034
- Salehi, M., Fahimifard, S. H., Zimon, G., Bujak, A., & Sadowski, A. (2022). The effect of CO2 gas
emissions on the market value, price and shares returns. Energies, 15(23), 9221.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en15239221
- Shobande, O. A., & Ogbeifun, L. (2022). Sustainable blueprint: Do stock investors increase emissions?
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(2), 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020070
- Singh, S. (2024). The relationship between growth in GDP and CO2 has loosened; it needs to be cut
completely. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-relationship-between-growth-in-gdp-andco2-has-loosened-it-needs-to-be-cut-completely
- Tamazian, A., Chousa, J. P., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2009). Does higher economic and financial
development lead to environmental degradation: Evidence from BRIC countries. Energy
policy, 37(1), 246-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.025
- Tay, B. H. (2023). Climate change and stock market: A review. IOP Conference Series: Earth and
Environmental Science, 1151 012021. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-
1315/1151/1/012021/pdf
- T.C. Çevre Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı (2024). İklim Değişikliği Azaltım Stratejisi ve
Eylem Planı (2024-2030). https://iklim.gov.tr/db/turkce/icerikler/files/%C4%B0klim%20De%C4%9Fi%C5%9Fikli%C4%
9Fi%20Azalt%C4%B1m%20Stratejisi%20ve%20Eylem%20Plan%C4%B1%20(2024-
2030).pdf
- Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly
integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-
4076(94)01616-8
- Tran, V. T., Phan, D. H. B., Tee, C. M., & Nguyen, D. T. (2024). Unmasking the carbon conundrum:
How emissions impact stock price crash risk. Finance Research Letters, 64, 105443.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105443
- tr.investing.com, https://tr.investing.com/
- TÜİK (2024). Sera gazı emisyon istatistikleri 1990-2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=SeraGazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2022-
53701#:~:text=Sera%20gaz%C4%B1%20envanteri%20sonu%C3%A7lar%C4%B1na%20g%C
3%B6re,CO2%20e%C5%9Fd.%20olarak%20hesapland%C4%B1.
- UN (2024). Causes and effects of climate change. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causeseffects-climate-change
- Wen, F., Wu, N., & Gong, X. (2020). China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns. Energy
Economics, 86, 104627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104627
The Linkage between Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Stock Market Performance in Turkey: A Study on BIST 100 and BIST Sector Indices
Yıl 2025,
Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 150 - 164, 30.05.2025
Çağrı Korkmazgöz
,
Serkan Şahin
,
İlhan Ege
Öz
Purpose: This study aims to examine the linkage between total greenhouse gas and sector based greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in Turkey and Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 Index and BIST sector indices.
Design/Methodology: In this study, the relationships between BIST 100 Index and total greenhouse gas emissions and between BIST sector indices and sector based greenhouse gas emissions are exmined by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) causality analysis.
Findings: As a result of the analyses, it is found that there is a bidirectional causality between the BIST Industrials Index and industry based GHG emissions and between the BIST Food Beverage Index and agriculture based GHG emissions. In addition, there is a unidirectional causality running from total greenhouse gas emissions to the BIST 100 Index and from energy based greenhouse gas emissions to the BIST Electricity Index.
Limitations: This research focuses on the interaction between greenhouse gas emissions and Borsa Istanbul, while other effects caused by greenhouse gas emissions are excluded. In addition, the analysis focuses on Turkey and excludes other developed and developing countries.
Originality/Value: There is a limited number of studies examining the linkage between greenhouse gas emissions and stock market performance. A review of the literature reveals that the linkage between stock market performance and greenhouse gas emissions is not obvious. This study aims to eliminate this deficiency. In addition, this study draws attention to the fact that investors price sectors that cause greenhouse gas emissions in Borsa Istanbul.
Kaynakça
- Akbar, U. S., Bhutto, N. A., & Rajput, S. K. O. (2024). How do carbon emissions and eco taxation affect
the equity market performance: An empirical evidence from 28 OECD economies. Environmental
Science and Pollution Research, 31(34), 46312-46324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-
29882-y
- Alessi, L., Ossola, E., & Panzica, R. (2020). The Greenium matters: greenhouse gas emissions,
environmental disclosures, and stock prices, CefES, Center for European Studies, 1-36. No 418.
http://repec.dems.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper418.pdf
- Aswani, J., Raghunandan, A., & Rajgopal, S. (2024). Are carbon emissions associated with stock
returns? Review of Finance, 28(1), 75-106. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfad013
- Benchora, I., & Galanti, S. (2024). Verified carbon emissions and stock returns in the EU Emissions
Trading System. Energy Policy, 193, 114264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114264
- Carney M. (2015). Breaking the tragedy of the horizon-climate change and financial stability. Speech
Given At Lloyd’s of London, 29, 220-230. https://www.bis.org/review/r151009a.pdf
- Chang, C. L., Ilomäki, J., Laurila, H., & McAleer, M. (2020). Causality between CO2 emissions and
stock markets. Energies, 13(11), 2893. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13112893
- Choi, B., & Luo, L. (2021). Does the market value greenhouse gas emissions? Evidence from multicountry firm data. The British Accounting Review, 53(1), 100909.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bar.2020.100909
- Değer, M. K., & Pata, U. K. (2017). Türkiye’de dış ticaret ve karbondioksit salınımı arasındaki ilişkilerin
simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleriyle analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 18(1), 31-44.
- Dutta, A., Bouri, E., & Noor, M. H. (2018). Return and volatility linkages between CO2 emission and
clean energy stock prices. Energy, 164, 803-810. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.09.055
- EPA (2024). Global Greenhouse Gas Overview. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/globalgreenhouse-gas-overview
- Faccini, R., Rastin M., & Skiadopoulos, G. (2021). Are climate change risks priced in the U.S. Stock
market?, Danmarks Nationalbank Working Papers, No. 169, Danmarks Nationalbank,
Copenhagen. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/245990/1/dnwp169.pdf
- Fedorova, E., & Iasakova, P. (2024). The impact of climate change news on the US stock market. The
Journal of Risk Finance, 25(2), 293-320. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-06-2023-0133
- Griffin, P. A., Lont, D. H., & Sun, E. Y. (2017). The relevance to investors of greenhouse gas emission
disclosures. Contemporary Accounting Research, 34(2), 1265-1297.https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12298
- Grippa, P., Schmittmann, J., & Suntheim, F. (2019). Climate change and financial risk: Central banks
and financial regulators are starting to factor in climate change. Finance & Development, 56(004),
26-29. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/pdf/climate-change-central-banksand-financial-risk-grippa.pdf
- Gujarati, D. N. (2003). Basic Econometrics (4. Baskı). McGraw-Hill.
- Güneysu, Y., & Atasel, O. Y. (2022). Karbon emisyonları ile finansal performans arasındaki ilişkinin
incelenmesi: BIST100 endeksinde bir araştırma. Fırat Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32(3),
1183-1193. https://doi.org/10.18069/firatsbed.1125859
- Habiba, U., Xinbang, C., & Ahmad, R. I. (2021). The influence of stock market and financial institution
development on carbon emissions with the importance of renewable energy consumption and
foreign direct investment in G20 countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28,
67677-67688. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15321-3
- Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for causality between integrated variables: Using asymptotic
and bootsrap distributions: Theory and application. Apllied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
- He, X., & Liu, Y. (2018). The public environmental awareness and the air pollution effect in Chinese
stock market. Journal of Cleaner Production, 185(1), 446-454.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.294
- Hengge, M., Panizza, U., & Varghese, M. R. (2023). Carbon policy surprises and stock returns: Signals
from financial markets. International Monetary Fund, WP/23/13. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/01/27/Carbon-Policy-Surprises-andStock-Returns-Signals-from-Financial-Markets-528644
- Kırca, M., & Karagöl, V. (2018). Türkiye’de petrol fiyatları ve cari açık arasındaki simetrik ve asimetrik
nedensellik ilişkilerinin analizi. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 10(18),
59-71. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.428607
- Lepori, G. M. (2016). Air pollution and stock returns: Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of
Empirical Finance, 35, 25-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.10.008
- Levy, T., & Yagil, J. (2011). Air pollution and stock returns in the US. Journal of Economic Psychology,
32, 374-383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joep.2011.01.004
- Li, W., Liu, T., & Wei, M. (2023). Heterogeneous response of the stock market to CO2 emissions in
China. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 1074262. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2022.1074262
- Mankiw, N.G., & Scarth, W. (2008) Macroeconomics (3. Baskı). Worth Publishers.
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (2023). NOAA's
Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (An Introduction). https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/
- Noh, J. H., & Park, H. (2023). Greenhouse gas emissions and stock market volatility: An empirical
analysis of OECD countries. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and
Management, 15(1), 58-80. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2021-0124
- Oestreich, A. M., & Tsiakas, I. (2015). Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU
emissions trading scheme. Journal of Banking & Finance, 58, 294-308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.05.005
- Paramati, S. R., Mo, D., & Gupta, R. (2017). The effects of stock market growth and renewable energy
use on CO2 emissions: Evidence from G20 countries. Energy Economics, 66, 360-371.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.06.025
- Reshetnikova, L., Ovechkin, D., Devyatkov, A., Chernova, G., & Boldyreva, N. (2023). Carbon
emissions and stock returns: The case of Russia. Journal of Risk and Financial Management,
16(8), 370. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16080370
- Sadorsky, P. (2011). Financial development and energy consumption in Central and Eastern European
frontier economies. Energy policy, 39(2), 999-1006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.034
- Salehi, M., Fahimifard, S. H., Zimon, G., Bujak, A., & Sadowski, A. (2022). The effect of CO2 gas
emissions on the market value, price and shares returns. Energies, 15(23), 9221.
https://doi.org/10.3390/en15239221
- Shobande, O. A., & Ogbeifun, L. (2022). Sustainable blueprint: Do stock investors increase emissions?
Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(2), 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm15020070
- Singh, S. (2024). The relationship between growth in GDP and CO2 has loosened; it needs to be cut
completely. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-relationship-between-growth-in-gdp-andco2-has-loosened-it-needs-to-be-cut-completely
- Tamazian, A., Chousa, J. P., & Vadlamannati, K. C. (2009). Does higher economic and financial
development lead to environmental degradation: Evidence from BRIC countries. Energy
policy, 37(1), 246-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.08.025
- Tay, B. H. (2023). Climate change and stock market: A review. IOP Conference Series: Earth and
Environmental Science, 1151 012021. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-
1315/1151/1/012021/pdf
- T.C. Çevre Şehircilik ve İklim Değişikliği Bakanlığı (2024). İklim Değişikliği Azaltım Stratejisi ve
Eylem Planı (2024-2030). https://iklim.gov.tr/db/turkce/icerikler/files/%C4%B0klim%20De%C4%9Fi%C5%9Fikli%C4%
9Fi%20Azalt%C4%B1m%20Stratejisi%20ve%20Eylem%20Plan%C4%B1%20(2024-
2030).pdf
- Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly
integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-
4076(94)01616-8
- Tran, V. T., Phan, D. H. B., Tee, C. M., & Nguyen, D. T. (2024). Unmasking the carbon conundrum:
How emissions impact stock price crash risk. Finance Research Letters, 64, 105443.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105443
- tr.investing.com, https://tr.investing.com/
- TÜİK (2024). Sera gazı emisyon istatistikleri 1990-2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=SeraGazi-Emisyon-Istatistikleri-1990-2022-
53701#:~:text=Sera%20gaz%C4%B1%20envanteri%20sonu%C3%A7lar%C4%B1na%20g%C
3%B6re,CO2%20e%C5%9Fd.%20olarak%20hesapland%C4%B1.
- UN (2024). Causes and effects of climate change. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causeseffects-climate-change
- Wen, F., Wu, N., & Gong, X. (2020). China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns. Energy
Economics, 86, 104627. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104627