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Türkiye'de Devlet Desteği ve KOBİ Büyümesi: Ridge Regresyon ile Bir Romer Modeli Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 447 - 463, 30.05.2025
https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024

Öz

Amaç: Bu çalışma, Romer (1990) içsel büyüme modelini kullanarak Türkiye'deki Küçük ve Orta Ölçekli İşletmelerin (KOBİ) büyüme performansını analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Devlet desteği, teknolojik ilerleme ve beşeri sermayenin KOBİ'lerin büyümesi üzerindeki etkilerini incelemeye odaklanılmıştır.
Tasarım/Yöntem: Çalışma, 2015-2022 dönemini kapsayan bir veri seti üzerinde Ridge regresyon analizini kullanmaktadır. Romer'in modelinin varsayımlarına uygun olarak devlet desteği, Ar-Ge harcamaları, patent başvuruları, beşerî sermaye ve ithalat gibi değişkenler dahil edilmiştir. Yapılandırılmış yaklaşım, çoklu doğrusallık sorunlarını ele alarak sağlam parametre tahminleri sağlamaktadır.
Bulgular: Sonuçlar, devlet desteğinin KOBİ'lerin büyüme performansını önemli ölçüde artırdığını göstermektedir. Teknolojik ilerleme ve beşerî sermaye, Romer'in modeline uygun olarak ekonomik büyümenin temel itici güçleri olarak doğrulanmıştır. Ar-Ge harcamaları ve ithalat üretimi olumlu yönde etkilerken, patent başvuruları kısa vadede olumsuz bir etki göstermekte ve ticarileşme sürecinin geciktiğine işaret etmektedir.
Sınırlılıklar: Veri seti sınırlı bir zaman dilimini (2015-2022) kapsamaktadır, bu da uzun vadeli etki değerlendirmelerini kısıtlamaktadır. Gelecekteki çalışmalar, analizi daha uzun bir zaman dilimini ve alternatif ekonometrik teknikleri içerecek şekilde genişletebilir.
Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışma, Romer'in içsel büyüme modeli merceğinden Türkiye'deki KOBİ büyümesi üzerinde devlet desteğinin rolünü analiz eden ilk çalışmalardan biridir. Çoklu doğrusallık sorununu çözmek için Ridge regresyonunun kullanılması ve mikro düzeydeki verilere odaklanılması literatüre benzersiz bir katkı sağlamaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, D. (2009). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, 1-977.
  • Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
  • Anwar, M., & Li, S. (2021). Spurring competitiveness and financial and environmental performance of SMEs through government financial and non-financial support. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(5), 7860-7882. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00951-3
  • Arslan, B. (2016). The Impact of KOSGEB's financial support on financial efficiency of SME’s: An Application in Düzce Province. Journal of Management Economics and Business, ICAFR 16 Special Issue, 12(12), 27-39.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
  • Batrancea, L. M., Balcı, M. A., Chermezan, L., Akgüller, Ö., Masca, E. S., & Gaban, L. (2022). Sources of SMEs financing and their impact on economic growth across the European Union: Insights from a panel data study spanning sixteen years. Sustainability, 14(22), 15318, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215318
  • Bayraktar, Y., Dündar, N., & Özyılmaz, A. (2022). The relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth in BRICS-T countries. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(3), 893-910. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1151022
  • Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2005). Financial and legal constraints to growth: Does firm size matter? The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00727.x
  • Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer.
  • Bozkurt, C. (2015). R&D expenditures and economic growth relationship in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 188-198.
  • Boztosun, D., Aksoylu, S., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2016). The role of human capital in economic growth. Economics World, 4(3), 101-110. doi: 10.17265/2328-7144/2016.03.001
  • Dereli, D. D., & Salğar, U. (2019). Relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth: An evaluation on Turkey. Journal of Life Economics, 6(3), 345-360. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.021
  • Doh, S., & Kim, B. (2014). Government support for SME innovations in the regional industries: The case of government financial support program in South Korea. Research Policy, 43(9), 1557-1569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2014.05.001
  • Ersin, Ö., Ustabaş, A., & Acar, T. (2022). The nonlinear effects of high technology exports, R&D and patents on economic growth: A panel threshold approach to 35 OECD countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 25(1), 26-44.
  • Erzurum, R. (2023). The effect of R&D expenditures and innovation on economic growth in Turkey. Uludağ University, Social Science Institution, Economics, Master Thesis.
  • Güneş, H. (2019). The relationship between R-D expenditures and economic growth: panel data analysis for the OECD countries. The Sakarya Journal of Economics, 8(2), 160-176.
  • Hall, B. H., & Lerner, J. (2009). The financing of R&D and innovation. NBER Working Paper No. 15325. National Bureau of Economic Research, 609-639. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15325
  • Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The elements of statistical learning: Data mining, inference, and prediction (2nd ed.). Springer, 1-745. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7
  • Hoerl, A. E., & Kennard, R. W. (1970). Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics, 12(1), 55-67.
  • Jones, C. I. and Vollrath, D. (2013). Introduction to economic growth. W. W. Norton & Co., 3rd edition.
  • Kim, D., Yeom, S., & Ko, M. C. (2020). The interactive effect of government financial support and firms’ innovative efforts on company growth: a focus on climate-tech SMEs in Korea. Sustainability, 12(22), 9666. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229666
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-22.
  • Marquardt, D.W and Snee, R.D. (1975). Ridge regression in practice. The American Statistician, 29 (1), 3-20.
  • Mwatu, Shadrack, (2023). Effect of human capital on economic growth in Austria: A time series analysis, 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4362459
  • Ogbeifun, L., & Shobande, O. A. (2022). A reevaluation of human capital accumulation and economic growth in OECD. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(4), e2602. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2602
  • Olcay, G. A., & Bulu, M. (2015). Who should really get government support: an analysis of Turkish SME cases. International Journal of Knowledge-Based Development, 6(1), 34-49. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJKBD.2015.069445
  • Öztürk, S., & Çınar, U. (2021). The relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth within the scope of endogenous growth theories: Time series analysis for Turkey. International Journal on Social Sciences, 6(2), 54-71. DOI: 10.46291/Al-Farabi.060204
  • Özer, M., & Çiftçi, N. (2009). AR-GE tabanlı içsel büyüme modelleri ve AR-GE harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri panel veri analizi. The Journal of Social Economic Research, 8(16), 219-240.
  • Pelinescu, E., Pauna, C., Saman, C., & Diaconescu, T. (2019). Human capital, innovation, and economic growth in the EU countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 22(4), 160-173.
  • Peçe, M. A. The effect of KOSGEB supports on the profitability of enterprises in TR81 region: Panel time series analysis. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 9(2), 69-75.
  • Porter, M. E., Stern, S., & Furman, J. L. (2002). The determinants of national innovative capacity. Research Policy, 31(6), 899–933. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(01)00152-4
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002- 1037.
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political economy, 98, 71-102.
  • Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth, the journal of economic perspectives,.8(1), 3-22.
  • Sakallıoğlu, S. & Kaçıranlar, S. (2008). A new biased estimator based on ridge estimation. Statistical Papers. 49(4): 669-89.
  • Seo, J. Y. (2017). A study of effective financial support for SMEs to improve economic and employment conditions: Evidence from OECD countries. Managerial and decision economics, 38(3), 432- 442. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.2838
  • Sokolov-Mladenović, S., Cvetanović, S., & Mladenović, I. (2016). R&D expenditure and economic growth: EU28 evidence for the period 2002–2012. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 1005-1020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1211948
  • Tibshirani, R. (1996). Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 58(1), 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517- 6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • Tikhonov, A. N. (1963). Solution of Incorrectly Posed Problems and the Regularization Method. Soviet Mathematics Doklady, 4, 1624-1627.
  • TUİK (2023). Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Statistics, 2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=49438&dil=2 (10.10.2024)
  • Tung, L. T., & Hoang, L. N. (2024). Impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth: evidence from emerging economies. Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, 15(3), 636-654. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-08-2022-0129
  • Xiang, D., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). The impact of government financial assistance on the performance and financing of Australian SMEs. Accounting Research Journal, 30(4), 447-464. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARJ-04-2014-0034
  • Yıldız, Ş. (2018). The effect of government incentives on the brand value of the firm: A KOSGEB application in Antalya. Social Science Institution, MBA.
  • Zou, H., & Hastie, T. (2005). Regularization and variable selection via the Elastic Net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 67(2), 301–320. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x

Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32, 447 - 463, 30.05.2025
https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024

Öz

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the growth performance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Türkiye using the Romer (1990) endogenous growth model. The focus is on examining the effects of government support, technological progress, and human capital on SME growth.
Design/methodology: The study employs Ridge regression analysis on a dataset spanning the period 2015–2022. Variables such as government support, R&D expenditures, patent applications, human capital, and imports are included, aligning with the assumptions of Romer’s model. The structured approach addresses multicollinearity issues, ensuring robust parameter estimates.
Findings: The results indicate that government support significantly enhances the growth performance of SMEs. Technological progress and human capital are confirmed as key drivers of economic growth in line with Romer’s model. While R&D expenditures and imports positively influence production, patent applications exhibit a negative short-term effect, suggesting a delayed commercialization process.
Limitations: The dataset covers a limited timeframe (2015–2022), which restricts long-term impact assessments. Future studies could expand the analysis to include a longer timeframe and alternative econometric techniques.
Originality/Value: This study is among the first to analyze the role of government support on SME growth in Türkiye through the lens of Romer’s endogenous growth model. The use of Ridge regression to address multicollinearity and the focus on micro-level data provide a unique contribution to the literature.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, D. (2009). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, 1-977.
  • Aghion, P., & Howitt, P. (1992). A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica, 60(2), 323–351. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951599
  • Anwar, M., & Li, S. (2021). Spurring competitiveness and financial and environmental performance of SMEs through government financial and non-financial support. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(5), 7860-7882. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-00951-3
  • Arslan, B. (2016). The Impact of KOSGEB's financial support on financial efficiency of SME’s: An Application in Düzce Province. Journal of Management Economics and Business, ICAFR 16 Special Issue, 12(12), 27-39.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
  • Batrancea, L. M., Balcı, M. A., Chermezan, L., Akgüller, Ö., Masca, E. S., & Gaban, L. (2022). Sources of SMEs financing and their impact on economic growth across the European Union: Insights from a panel data study spanning sixteen years. Sustainability, 14(22), 15318, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215318
  • Bayraktar, Y., Dündar, N., & Özyılmaz, A. (2022). The relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth in BRICS-T countries. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 17(3), 893-910. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.1151022
  • Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2005). Financial and legal constraints to growth: Does firm size matter? The Journal of Finance, 60(1), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00727.x
  • Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. Springer.
  • Bozkurt, C. (2015). R&D expenditures and economic growth relationship in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1), 188-198.
  • Boztosun, D., Aksoylu, S., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2016). The role of human capital in economic growth. Economics World, 4(3), 101-110. doi: 10.17265/2328-7144/2016.03.001
  • Dereli, D. D., & Salğar, U. (2019). Relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth: An evaluation on Turkey. Journal of Life Economics, 6(3), 345-360. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.6.021
  • Doh, S., & Kim, B. (2014). Government support for SME innovations in the regional industries: The case of government financial support program in South Korea. Research Policy, 43(9), 1557-1569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2014.05.001
  • Ersin, Ö., Ustabaş, A., & Acar, T. (2022). The nonlinear effects of high technology exports, R&D and patents on economic growth: A panel threshold approach to 35 OECD countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 25(1), 26-44.
  • Erzurum, R. (2023). The effect of R&D expenditures and innovation on economic growth in Turkey. Uludağ University, Social Science Institution, Economics, Master Thesis.
  • Güneş, H. (2019). The relationship between R-D expenditures and economic growth: panel data analysis for the OECD countries. The Sakarya Journal of Economics, 8(2), 160-176.
  • Hall, B. H., & Lerner, J. (2009). The financing of R&D and innovation. NBER Working Paper No. 15325. National Bureau of Economic Research, 609-639. https://doi.org/10.3386/w15325
  • Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009). The elements of statistical learning: Data mining, inference, and prediction (2nd ed.). Springer, 1-745. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7
  • Hoerl, A. E., & Kennard, R. W. (1970). Ridge regression: Biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics, 12(1), 55-67.
  • Jones, C. I. and Vollrath, D. (2013). Introduction to economic growth. W. W. Norton & Co., 3rd edition.
  • Kim, D., Yeom, S., & Ko, M. C. (2020). The interactive effect of government financial support and firms’ innovative efforts on company growth: a focus on climate-tech SMEs in Korea. Sustainability, 12(22), 9666. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229666
  • Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-22.
  • Marquardt, D.W and Snee, R.D. (1975). Ridge regression in practice. The American Statistician, 29 (1), 3-20.
  • Mwatu, Shadrack, (2023). Effect of human capital on economic growth in Austria: A time series analysis, 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4362459
  • Ogbeifun, L., & Shobande, O. A. (2022). A reevaluation of human capital accumulation and economic growth in OECD. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(4), e2602. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2602
  • Olcay, G. A., & Bulu, M. (2015). Who should really get government support: an analysis of Turkish SME cases. International Journal of Knowledge-Based Development, 6(1), 34-49. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJKBD.2015.069445
  • Öztürk, S., & Çınar, U. (2021). The relationship between R&D expenditures and economic growth within the scope of endogenous growth theories: Time series analysis for Turkey. International Journal on Social Sciences, 6(2), 54-71. DOI: 10.46291/Al-Farabi.060204
  • Özer, M., & Çiftçi, N. (2009). AR-GE tabanlı içsel büyüme modelleri ve AR-GE harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: OECD ülkeleri panel veri analizi. The Journal of Social Economic Research, 8(16), 219-240.
  • Pelinescu, E., Pauna, C., Saman, C., & Diaconescu, T. (2019). Human capital, innovation, and economic growth in the EU countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 22(4), 160-173.
  • Peçe, M. A. The effect of KOSGEB supports on the profitability of enterprises in TR81 region: Panel time series analysis. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 9(2), 69-75.
  • Porter, M. E., Stern, S., & Furman, J. L. (2002). The determinants of national innovative capacity. Research Policy, 31(6), 899–933. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-7333(01)00152-4
  • Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002- 1037.
  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of political economy, 98, 71-102.
  • Romer, P. M. (1994). The origins of endogenous growth, the journal of economic perspectives,.8(1), 3-22.
  • Sakallıoğlu, S. & Kaçıranlar, S. (2008). A new biased estimator based on ridge estimation. Statistical Papers. 49(4): 669-89.
  • Seo, J. Y. (2017). A study of effective financial support for SMEs to improve economic and employment conditions: Evidence from OECD countries. Managerial and decision economics, 38(3), 432- 442. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.2838
  • Sokolov-Mladenović, S., Cvetanović, S., & Mladenović, I. (2016). R&D expenditure and economic growth: EU28 evidence for the period 2002–2012. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 29(1), 1005-1020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2016.1211948
  • Tibshirani, R. (1996). Regression shrinkage and selection via the Lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 58(1), 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517- 6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • Tikhonov, A. N. (1963). Solution of Incorrectly Posed Problems and the Regularization Method. Soviet Mathematics Doklady, 4, 1624-1627.
  • TUİK (2023). Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Statistics, 2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=49438&dil=2 (10.10.2024)
  • Tung, L. T., & Hoang, L. N. (2024). Impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth: evidence from emerging economies. Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, 15(3), 636-654. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-08-2022-0129
  • Xiang, D., & Worthington, A. C. (2017). The impact of government financial assistance on the performance and financing of Australian SMEs. Accounting Research Journal, 30(4), 447-464. https://doi.org/10.1108/ARJ-04-2014-0034
  • Yıldız, Ş. (2018). The effect of government incentives on the brand value of the firm: A KOSGEB application in Antalya. Social Science Institution, MBA.
  • Zou, H., & Hastie, T. (2005). Regularization and variable selection via the Elastic Net. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 67(2), 301–320. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Büyüme, Maliye Politikası, Makro İktisat (Diğer), Kamu Ekonomisi
Bölüm ARAŞTIRMA MAKALELERİ
Yazarlar

Serkan Şengül 0000-0001-9891-9477

Pınar Karahan Dursun 0000-0002-8289-6570

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Mayıs 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 16 Şubat 2025
Kabul Tarihi 14 Mayıs 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 32

Kaynak Göster

APA Şengül, S., & Karahan Dursun, P. (2025). Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 17(32), 447-463. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024
AMA Şengül S, Karahan Dursun P. Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). Mayıs 2025;17(32):447-463. doi:10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024
Chicago Şengül, Serkan, ve Pınar Karahan Dursun. “Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach With Ridge Regression”. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17, sy. 32 (Mayıs 2025): 447-63. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024.
EndNote Şengül S, Karahan Dursun P (01 Mayıs 2025) Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17 32 447–463.
IEEE S. Şengül ve P. Karahan Dursun, “Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression”, Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), c. 17, sy. 32, ss. 447–463, 2025, doi: 10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024.
ISNAD Şengül, Serkan - Karahan Dursun, Pınar. “Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach With Ridge Regression”. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD) 17/32 (Mayıs 2025), 447-463. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024.
JAMA Şengül S, Karahan Dursun P. Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2025;17:447–463.
MLA Şengül, Serkan ve Pınar Karahan Dursun. “Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach With Ridge Regression”. Akademik Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), c. 17, sy. 32, 2025, ss. 447-63, doi:10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1641024.
Vancouver Şengül S, Karahan Dursun P. Government Support and SME Growth in Türkiye: A Romer Model Approach with Ridge Regression. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD). 2025;17(32):447-63.