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Is the pollution haven hypothesis or the pollution halo hypothesis valid in Türkiye?: An augmented bounds test (A-ARDL) approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 807 - 824, 27.06.2025

Oğuzhan Demir , Dilek Özdemir , Sevda Yapraklı

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1517522

Öz

This study investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on environmental pollution in Türkiye, with reference to the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH) and the Pollution Halo Effect (PHE). Employing the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) approach, the analysis covers the period 1975–2022 using a set of variables including carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption, FDI inflows, trade openness, gross fixed capital formation, and economic growth. Empirical findings indicate that FDI contributes to an increase in CO₂ emissions in both the short and long term, thereby providing strong evidence in support of the PHH in the case of Türkiye. In particular, FDI inflows targeting energy-intensive and carbon-intensive sectors appear to undermine environmental sustainability. These results underscore the necessity of redirecting FDI toward environmentally sustainable technologies and renewable energy investments. Moreover, the implementation of structural transformation policies aimed at improving energy efficiency is expected to play a pivotal role in mitigating carbon emissions. Future research would benefit from more disaggregated, sector-specific and regionally focused analyses to capture the heterogeneous environmental effects of FDI more comprehensively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pollution Haven Hypothesis Foreign Direct Investments Pollution Halo Effect A-ARDL Bound Test

Kaynakça

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Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi mi, yoksa kirlilik hale hipotezi mi geçerlidir?: Genişletilmiş sınır testi (A-ARDL) yaklaşımı

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 807 - 824, 27.06.2025

Oğuzhan Demir , Dilek Özdemir , Sevda Yapraklı

https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1517522

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların (DYY) çevre kirliliği üzerindeki etkisini Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi (KSH) ve Kirlilik Hale Hipotezi (KHH) kapsamında analiz etmektedir. 1975-2022 dönemine ait karbon emisyonları, kişi başına enerji tüketimi, DYY girişleri, ticari açıklık, gayrisafi sabit sermaye oluşumu ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri kullanılarak Genişletilmiş Sınır Testi (A-ARDL) yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, DYY’nin kısa ve uzun dönemde CO₂ emisyonlarını artırdığını ve KSH’nin Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Özellikle enerji yoğun ve karbon salınımı yüksek sektörlere yönelen DYY’ler, çevresel sürdürülebilirliği tehdit etmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, DYY politikalarının çevre dostu teknolojilere ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarına yönlendirilmesi gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, enerji verimliliğini artıran yapısal dönüşüm politikalarının uygulanması, karbon emisyonlarını azaltma noktasında kritik bir rol oynayacaktır. Gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalarda sektörel ve bölgesel düzeyde analizlerin derinleştirilmesi, DYY’lerin çevresel etkilerini daha kapsamlı bir şekilde ortaya koyacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kirlilik Sığınağı Hipotezi Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Kirlilik Hale Hipotezi A-ARDL Sınır Testi

Kaynakça

  • Acharyya, J. (2009). FDI, growth and the environment: Evidence from India on CO2 emission during the last two decades, Journal of Economic Development, 34(1), 43-58. https://jed.cau.ac.kr/archives/34-1/34-1-3.pdf
  • Acheampong, A.O., Adams, A. & Boateng, E. (2019). Do globalization and renewable energy contribute to carbon emissions mitigation in sub-saharan Africa?, Science of the Total Environment, 677, 436-446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.353
  • Aissaoui, R. & Fabian, F. (2021). Globalization, economic development, and corruption: A cross-lagged contingency perspective, Journal of International Business Policy, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00091-5
  • Ajide, K. B. & Adeniyi, O. (2010). FDI and the environment in developing economies: Evidence from Nigeria, Environmental Research Journal, 4(4), 291-297. https://doi.org/10.3923/erj.2010.291.297
  • Akram, R., Fareed, Z., Xiaoli, G., Zulfiqar, B. & Shahzad, F. (2022). Investigating the existence of asymmetric environmental kuznets curve and pollution haven hypothesis in China: Fresh evidence from QARDL and quantile granger causality, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(33), 50454-50470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18785-z
  • Anwar, N. & Elfaki, K. E. (2021). Examining the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation in Indonesia: Do capital and trade openness matter?, International Journal of Renewable Energy Development, 10(4), 769-778. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijred.2021.37822
  • Aytemiz, S. (2009). Küreselleşme koşullarında dünya ekonomisinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlara genel bir bakış, Toplum ve Demokrasi Dergisi, 3(6), 189-202. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/toplumdd/issue/22722/242507
  • Bakhsh, K., Rose, S., Ali, M. F., Ahmad, N. & Shahbaz, M. (2017). Economic growth, CO2 emissions, renewable waste and FDI relation in Pakistan: New evidences from 3SLS, Journal of Environmental Management, 196, 627-632. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.03.029
  • Balıbey, M. (2015). Relationships among CO2 emissions, economic growth and foreign direct investment and the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis in Turkey, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 5(4), 1042-1049. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijeeep/issue/31915/351034
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  • Martínez-Zarzoso, I. & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries, Ecological Economics, 70(7), 1344-1353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.02.009
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  • Mert, M. & Cağlar, A. E. (2020). Testing pollution haven and pollution halo hypotheses for Turkey: A new perspective, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 32933-32943. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-09469-7
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  • Mutafoglu T.H. (2012). Foreign direct investment, pollution, and economic growth evidence from Turkey, Journal of Developing Societies, 28(3), 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1177/0169796X1245378
  • Narayan, P. K. & Popp, S. (2010). A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time, Journal of Applied Statistics, 37(9), 1425–1438. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664760903039883
  • Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests, Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
  • Nepal, R., Paija, N., Tyagi, B. & Harvie, C. (2021). Energy security, economic growth and environmental sustainability in India: Does FDI and trade openness play a role?, Journal of Environmental Management, 281, 111886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.111886
  • Neves, S. A., Marques, A. C. & Patrício, M. (2020). Determinants of CO2 emissions in European Union countries: Does environmental regulation reduce environmental pollution?, Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 114-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.005
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  • Rezza, A. A. (2013). FDI and pollution havens: Evidence from the Norwegian manufacturing sector, Ecological Economics, 90, 140-149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.03.014
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Toplam 77 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri, Zaman Serileri Analizi, Makro İktisat (Diğer)
Bölüm İKTİSAT
Yazarlar

Oğuzhan Demir 0000-0001-6320-5562

Dilek Özdemir 0000-0002-8048-7730

Sevda Yapraklı 0000-0002-1902-899X

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 25 Haziran 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Temmuz 2024
Kabul Tarihi 28 Mart 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Demir, O., Özdemir, D., & Yapraklı, S. (2025). Türkiye’de kirlilik sığınağı hipotezi mi, yoksa kirlilik hale hipotezi mi geçerlidir?: Genişletilmiş sınır testi (A-ARDL) yaklaşımı. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi SBE Dergisi, 15(2), 807-824. https://doi.org/10.30783/nevsosbilen.1517522
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