Araştırma Makalesi
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POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 102, 78 - 100, 22.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ekonomi, para, ticaret, petrol ve iklim politikası belirsizlikleri, jeopolitik riskler, yatırımcı duyarlılığı ve riskten kaçınma arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler Ocak 1997-Aralık 2023 dönemi aylık verileri için zamanla değişen parametre vektör otoregresyon (TVP-VAR) ve Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik yöntemleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlara göre ekonomik ve para politikası belirsizliğinin riskten kaçınma üzerinde daha etkili olduğu; ticaret ve iklim politikası belirsizliği ile jeopolitik risklerin ise sınırlı ve geçici etkiler taşıdığı tespit edilmiştir. EPU’nun yatırımcı davranışlarını şekillendiren en önemli faktörlerden biri olduğu; MPU’nun ise piyasa beklentilerini ve yatırımcı duyarlılığını etkileyen bir diğer kritik unsur olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Bulgular, piyasa dayanıklılığının zamanla artış gösterdiğini ve yatırımcı davranışlarının ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklere uyum sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak, belirsizliklerin finansal sistemde yarattığı asimetrik etkiler, politika yapıcılar ve yatırımcılar için önemli uyarılar sunmaktadır. Özellikle ekonomik politika belirsizliği, risk algısını şekillendirmede önemli bir rol oynarken, yatırımcı duyarlılığı ve riskten kaçınma davranışlarının bu belirsizliklerden önemli ölçüde etkilendiği görülmüştür. Politika önerileri arasında ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin yayılımını sınırlayan mekanizmaların geliştirilmesi ve piyasa düzenlemelerinin güçlendirilmesi yer almaktadır. Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma, ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkilerinin anlaşılmasına yönelik değerli katkılar sunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Agyei, S. K., Owusu Junior, P., Bossman, A., Asafo-Adjei, E., Asiamah, O., & Adam, A. M. (2022). Spillovers and contagion between BRIC and G7 markets: New evidence from time-frequency analysis. PLoS ONE, 17(7), e0271088. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271088
  • Andries, M., Eisenbach, T. M., & Schmalz, M. C. (2019). Horizon-dependent risk aversion and the timing and pricing of uncertainty (April 1, 2019). FRB of New York Staff Report (No. 703). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2535919
  • Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Gabauer, D. (2020). Refined measures of dynamic connectedness based on time-varying parameter vector autoregressions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), Article 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040084
  • Asgharian, H., Christiansen, C., & Hou, A. J. (2023). The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 154, 106929. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106929
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00885.x
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  • Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E.C., & Xu, N.R., (2022). The Time variation in risk appetite and uncertainty. Management Science, 68(6), 3975-4004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4068
  • Bergman, N. K., & Roychowdhury, S. (2008). Investor sentiment and corporate disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research, 46(5), 1057-1083. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00305.x
  • Bossman, A., Gubareva, M., & Teplova, T. (2023). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia–Ukraine tensions. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440
  • Callen, M., Isaqzadeh, M., Long, J. D., & Sprenger, C. (2014). Violence and risk preference: Experimental evidence from Afghanistan. American Economic Review, 104(1), 123-148. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.123
  • Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., MacKinlay, A. C., & Whitelaw, R. F. (1998). The econometrics of financial markets. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2(4), 559–562. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100598009092
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Gabauer, D., & Gupta, R., (2023). Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: new evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach. Resources Policy, 84, 103729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103729
  • Choi, S. Y., & Hadad, E. (2024). The dynamic relationship among economic and monetary policy, geopolitical risk, sentiment, and risk aversion: A TVP-VAR approach. Finance Research Letters, 106532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106532
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  • Cohen, G., & Kudryavtsev, A. (2012). Investor rationality and financial decisions. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(1), 11-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2012.653020
  • Dahmene, M., Boughrara, A., & Slim, S. (2021). Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks matter? International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 676–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.002
  • Dash, S. R., Maitra, D., Debata, B., & Mahakud, J. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Evidence from G7 countries. International Review of Finance, 21(2), 611-626. https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12277
  • Diebold, F. X., & Yılmaz, K. (2014). On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. Journal of econometrics, 182(1), 119-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.012
  • Diebold, F.X., & Yilmaz, K., (2012). Better to give than to receive: predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006
  • Dimmock, S. G., & Kouwenberg, R. (2010). Loss-aversion and household portfolio choice. Journal of Empirical Finance, 17, 11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.11.005
  • Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg, & J. H. Stock. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813–836. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846
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  • Feng, C., Han, L., Vigne, S., & Xu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 82, 101693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101693
  • Galloppo, G., & Paimanova, V. (2017). The impact of monetary policy on BRIC markets asset prices during global financial crises. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 21-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.02.008
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W., & Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics (No. w20038). National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-58. https://doi.org/10.3386/w20038
  • González-Sánchez, M., Nave, J., & Rubio, G. (2020). Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity. Research in International Business and Finance, 53, 101236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101236
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A Study on Policy Uncertainties and Geopolitical Risk with Investor Sentiment and Risk Aversion: TVP-VAR Approach

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 102, 78 - 100, 22.06.2025
https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419

Öz

In this study, the dynamic relationships between economic, monetary, trade, oil, and climate policy uncertainty; geopolitical risks, investor sentiment; and risk aversion are analyzed using time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) and Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality methods for monthly data for the period from January 1997 to December 2023. According to the results, economic and monetary policy uncertainty is more influential on risk aversion, while trade and climate policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks have limited and transitory effects. EMU is one of the most important factors shaping investor behavior, while MPU is another critical factor affecting market expectations and investor sentiment. The findings reveal that market resilience increases over time and investor behavior adapts to economic and political uncertainties. However, the asymmetric effects of uncertainties on the financial system provide important warnings for policymakers and investors. In particular, economic policy uncertainty plays an important role in shaping risk perception, while investor sentiment and risk aversion behaviors are significantly affected by these uncertainties. Policy recommendations include developing mechanisms to limit the propagation of economic and political uncertainty and strengthening market regulations. In conclusion, this study provides valuable contributions to the understanding of the effects of economic and political uncertainties on financial markets.

Kaynakça

  • Agyei, S. K., Owusu Junior, P., Bossman, A., Asafo-Adjei, E., Asiamah, O., & Adam, A. M. (2022). Spillovers and contagion between BRIC and G7 markets: New evidence from time-frequency analysis. PLoS ONE, 17(7), e0271088. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271088
  • Andries, M., Eisenbach, T. M., & Schmalz, M. C. (2019). Horizon-dependent risk aversion and the timing and pricing of uncertainty (April 1, 2019). FRB of New York Staff Report (No. 703). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2535919
  • Antonakakis, N., Chatziantoniou, I., & Gabauer, D. (2020). Refined measures of dynamic connectedness based on time-varying parameter vector autoregressions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(4), Article 84. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13040084
  • Asgharian, H., Christiansen, C., & Hou, A. J. (2023). The effect of uncertainty on stock market volatility and correlation. Journal of Banking & Finance, 154, 106929. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.106929
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2006). Investor sentiment and the cross‐section of stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 61(4), 1645-1680. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.00885.x
  • Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
  • Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The quarterly journal of economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
  • Bekaert, G., Engstrom, E.C., & Xu, N.R., (2022). The Time variation in risk appetite and uncertainty. Management Science, 68(6), 3975-4004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4068
  • Bergman, N. K., & Roychowdhury, S. (2008). Investor sentiment and corporate disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research, 46(5), 1057-1083. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00305.x
  • Bossman, A., Gubareva, M., & Teplova, T. (2023). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk on major currencies: Russia–Ukraine tensions. Finance Research Letters, 51, 103440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103440
  • Callen, M., Isaqzadeh, M., Long, J. D., & Sprenger, C. (2014). Violence and risk preference: Experimental evidence from Afghanistan. American Economic Review, 104(1), 123-148. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.1.123
  • Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., MacKinlay, A. C., & Whitelaw, R. F. (1998). The econometrics of financial markets. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2(4), 559–562. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100598009092
  • Chatziantoniou, I., Gabauer, D., & Gupta, R., (2023). Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: new evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach. Resources Policy, 84, 103729. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103729
  • Choi, S. Y., & Hadad, E. (2024). The dynamic relationship among economic and monetary policy, geopolitical risk, sentiment, and risk aversion: A TVP-VAR approach. Finance Research Letters, 106532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106532
  • Cochrane, J. H. (2009). Asset pricing: Revised edition. Princeton University.
  • Cochrane, J. H. (2017). Macro-finance. Review of Finance, 21(3), 945–985. https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfx010
  • Cohen, G., & Kudryavtsev, A. (2012). Investor rationality and financial decisions. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 13(1), 11-16. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2012.653020
  • Dahmene, M., Boughrara, A., & Slim, S. (2021). Nonlinearity in stock returns: Do risk aversion, investor sentiment and monetary policy shocks matter? International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 676–699. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2020.10.002
  • Dash, S. R., Maitra, D., Debata, B., & Mahakud, J. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Evidence from G7 countries. International Review of Finance, 21(2), 611-626. https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12277
  • Diebold, F. X., & Yılmaz, K. (2014). On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms. Journal of econometrics, 182(1), 119-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.04.012
  • Diebold, F.X., & Yilmaz, K., (2012). Better to give than to receive: predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006
  • Dimmock, S. G., & Kouwenberg, R. (2010). Loss-aversion and household portfolio choice. Journal of Empirical Finance, 17, 11–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.11.005
  • Elliott, G., T. J. Rothenberg, & J. H. Stock. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813–836. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846
  • Fang, Y., Shao, Z., & Zhao, Y. (2023). Risk spillovers in global financial markets: Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 83, 821–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.10.016
  • Feng, C., Han, L., Vigne, S., & Xu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 82, 101693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101693
  • Galloppo, G., & Paimanova, V. (2017). The impact of monetary policy on BRIC markets asset prices during global financial crises. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 66, 21-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2017.02.008
  • Gilchrist, S., Sim, J. W., & Zakrajšek, E. (2014). Uncertainty, financial frictions, and investment dynamics (No. w20038). National Bureau of Economic Research, 1-58. https://doi.org/10.3386/w20038
  • González-Sánchez, M., Nave, J., & Rubio, G. (2020). Effects of uncertainty and risk aversion on the exposure of investment-style factor returns to real activity. Research in International Business and Finance, 53, 101236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101236
  • Guiso, L., & Paiella, M. (2020). The role of risk aversion in predicting individual behavior. In Competitive failures in insurance markets. MIT. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/1986.003.0016
  • Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2018). Time varying risk aversion. Journal of Financial Economics, 128(3), 403–421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2018.02.007
  • Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv050
  • Hellström, J., Stålnacke, O., & Olsson, R. (2022). Individuals’ financial risk-taking and peer influence. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 86, 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.05.001
  • Höl, A. Ö. (2023). Covid-19 döneminde Türkiye’de finansal varlıklar arasındaki volatilite yayılımı: TVP-VAR uygulaması. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi (İKTİSAD), 8(21), 339-357.
  • Iyke, B. N., & Maheepala, M. M. J. D. (2022). Conventional monetary policy, COVID-19, and stock markets in emerging economies. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 76, 101883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2022.101883
  • Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1987). A test for normality of observations and regression residuals. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique, 163-172. https://doi.org/10.2307/1403192
  • Julio, B., & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance, 67(1), 45-83. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2011.01707.x
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417358_0006
  • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (2013). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. In Handbook of the fundamentals of financial decision making: Part I (pp. 99-127). https://doi.org/10.1142/9789814417358_0006
  • Kim, Y. I., & Lee, J. (2014). The long-run impact of a traumatic experience on risk aversion. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 108, 174-186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2014.09.009
  • Koop, G., Pesaran, M.H., & Potter, S.M. (1996). Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models. Journal of Econometrics, 74(1), 119-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(95)01753-4
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  • Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2011). Depression babies: do macroeconomic experiences affect risk taking? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 373-416. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjq004
  • Marschner, P. F., & Ceretta, P. S. (2021). Investor sentiment, economic uncertainty, and monetary policy in Brazil. Revista Contabilidade & Finanças, 32(87), 528-540. https://doi.org/10.1590/1808-057x202113220
  • Mengel, F., Tsakas, E., & Vostroknutov, A. (2016). Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion. Experimental Economics, 19, 151-176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-015-9431-6
  • Mensi, W., Gubareva, M., Teplova, T., & Kang, S. H. (2023). Spillover and connectedness among G7 real estate investment trusts: The effects of investor sentiment and global factors. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 66, 101919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2023.101919
  • Monge, M., Romero Rojo, M. F., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2023). The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates. Energy, 269, 126779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.126779
  • Naeem, M. A., Mbarki, I., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2021). Predictive role of online investor sentiment for cryptocurrency market: Evidence from happiness and fears. International Review of Economics & Finance, 73, 496-514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.01.008
  • Nieto, B., & Rubio, G. (2022). The risk aversion and uncertainty channels between finance and macroeconomics. Finance Research Letters, 45, 102188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102188
  • Nishiyama, Y. (2006). The asian financial crisis and investors’ risk aversion. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 13, 181-205. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-007-9041-1
  • O'Donoghue, T., & Somerville, J. (2018). Modeling risk aversion in economics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2), 91–114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.32.2.91
  • Panousi, V., & Papanikolaou, D. (2012). Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership. Journal of Finance, 67, 1113–1147. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01743.x
  • Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2012). Uncertainty about government policy and stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1219-1264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012.01746.x
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  • Smales, L. A. (2021). Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 80, 358–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.03.008
  • Umar, Z., Polat, O., Choi, S. Y., & Teplova, T. (2022). The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the connectedness of financial markets. Finance Research Letters, 48, 102976. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102976
  • Vural-Yavaş, Ç. (2020). Corporate risk-taking in developed countries: The influence of economic policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 54, 100616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2020.100616
  • Wachter, J. A., & Kahana, M. J. (2024). A retrieved-context theory of financial decisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 139(2), 1095–1147. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad050
  • Wang, Y. T., & Wang, S. W. (2020). Analysis on the impact of policy uncertainty on investor sentiment. Market Weekly, 1, 115-116.
  • Wang, Y., Bouri, E., Fareed, Z., & Dai, Y. (2022). Geopolitical risk and the systemic risk in the commodity markets under the war in Ukraine. Finance Research Letters, 49, 103066. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103066
  • Wu, X., He, Q., & Xie, H. (2023). Forecasting VIX with time-varying risk aversion. International Review of Economics & Finance, 88, 458–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.06.034
  • Xiao, J., Jiang, J., & Zhang, Y. (2024). Policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and good and bad volatilities in the stock market: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 84, 102303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102303
  • Zhang, C., Yang, C., & Liu, C. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and corporate risk-taking: Loss aversion or opportunity expectations. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 69, 101640. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101640
  • Zhang, Y., He, J., He, M., & Li, S. (2023). Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective. Finance Research Letters, 53, 103620. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103620
Toplam 67 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi, İşletme ve Yönetim Müfredatı ve Öğretimi, Zaman Serileri Analizi, Ekonometri (Diğer)
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Elif Hilal Nazlıoğlu 0000-0002-4425-7479

Aslan Aydoğdu 0000-0001-9732-0614

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 25 Nisan 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Haziran 2025
Gönderilme Tarihi 7 Ocak 2025
Kabul Tarihi 15 Nisan 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Sayı: 102

Kaynak Göster

APA Nazlıoğlu, E. H., & Aydoğdu, A. (2025). POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ VE JEOPOLİTİK RİSK İLE YATIRIMCI DUYARLILIĞI VE RİSKTEN KAÇINMA ÜZERİNE BİR ARAŞTIRMA: TVP-VAR YAKLAŞIMI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi(102), 78-100. https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1615419